The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper

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2009-12-22T06:22:00.001-05:00

The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper
www.thetbdhandicapper.com

Tampa Bay Downs Results - 05/03/09

2009-05-03T17:00:00.009-04:00

2008-2009 & 2007-2008
Prime Wager Results 80-250 (32%) +11.80 (80-34-35) (60% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap:
307 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)

106 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
142 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.90)
55 Trifectas (Average Payoff $135.80)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 11th, Storm Thief, was out of the money, and my soft wager in the 3rd, Fortunate Trail won and paid $3.00.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.60,
My 3rd race $16 trifecta box returned $14.60,
I had the winner of the 5th, Make My Day, $5.00, and
I had the winner of the 10th, That's My Man, $6.40

So it goes...

As we close the door on another season, I want to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their support of the website, the email, the phone calls, etc... There is nothing more valuable to a handicapper than the ability to listen carefully to someone else's opinion. Have a great summer and fall and I'll see you in December with my redesigned, tricked out, better than ever website. Subscribers will be sent the 2009-2010 Handicapping Package, including the revised Trainer Profiles as soon as they are completed.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/03/09

2009-05-02T16:53:00.022-04:00

2008-2009
Prime Wager Results.15-38 (40%) -$7.20 (15-4-8) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

Seasonal Recap:
302 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 of every 3 races after Scratches)

103 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
141 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.00)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

2007-2008
Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Three On A Match, won and paid $9.40 and my prime wager in the 5th, Doctor Carina settled for third.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $6 exacta key returned $25.00,
I had the winner of the 6th, Celebration Dance, $8.40,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $8.40,
My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $56.40

So it goes...

There is only 1 more race day of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st Contenders Only (D) – Roman Scorpian (2) just missed in debut and %E is ideal for the stretchout to 8.18F. Had the best fig in the field (by my numbers) and goes for Horacio Barbaran who wins 17% with maiden claimers. Bailey’s Pepper (3) has %E that is near the upper limit for today’s distance but is still in the zone. Sheds 15 lbs. with Schorr up and Faith had two winners and four ITM in three days this week. Early Again (9) raced forwardly at the route on off tracks in last two and has virtues that are inconspicuous. Big Cash (10) has blown his cover after almost stealing one at today’s distance at 24-1 in last. Scace will be trying again today. Rice has Frazil (7) ML 9-2 but she has not won a Sprint-to-Route in L4T. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,9,10/2 and Trifectas 2,10/1,7/2,3,9,10

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetasnails (6) goes for Chad Stewart and he wins 18% with Turf-to-Dirt runners and 18% (55%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to #2 leading jockey Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Sweetasnails was ITM in first three starts and if she isn’t discouraged she’ll be right there. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,7,12/6 and Trifectas 6,12/1,7,8,9,11/6,12

3rd – A soft wager – Fortunate Trail (8) is in rare form and is strictly the one to beat. Was above par in last three. Ziadie wins 35% (52%ITM) rightback. Leading Owner Richard Averill has 37% winners this season. Hot apprentice Faith Schorr brings him home at 106 lbs. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,5/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5,8.

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Palace Cat (3) was gaining and just missed in Tampa grass debut and stretches out today. Was close to or above par in all four grass starts. Last fig was best among today’s field. Lerman had six turf winners in previous two seasons and is winless this year. It’s now or never. Mac Speed (4) was caught in last after chasing a slow early pace. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4,7/3 and Trifectas 3,4/1,2,7,10/3,4

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Make My Day (8) had best early fractions two and three back and was shown the pecking order of things in last. Drops today and should recover from bruised ego. HVG jumps from Espirit de Mar (7) to stay with Make My Day. Williams wins 17% (58% ITM) with L1-3s and 20% (40% ITM) with dropdowns. Win (8), Saver Exactas 9,10,12/8 and Trifectas 8,9,12/1,7,10/8,9,12

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Only four of O’Connell’s 56 winners in L3T were fastback types and none came back in <9 days. Jackies’s Causeway (9) has never come back fast in her 12 starts. I think K’OC is mistaken to try to squeeze another race out of Jackie’s Causeway before the meeting ends, so Jackie’s Causeway, ML 9-5, is my false favorite of the day. Mini Goal (2) goes for Robert Raymond and he had eight stretchout winners in L3T. Try Your Best (4) comes back fast for Bruce Alexander and he wins 26% with fastbacks. Stormy Drew (6) doesn’t look like much but she has some solid final fractions and may be there late. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,6/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4,6

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dirtkicker (8) was up for the place with a par fig in last and Gatis wins 23% (46% ITM) with stretchouts. Mike Allen has the return call and the Gatis/Allen team has 2 wins and 2 seconds in 7 starts. I’m Wealthy (3) stretches out after closing nicely in last. Drops 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Michele Dehn. Devilish Mecke (9) goes for Tampa veteran Emanuel Tortora (3-6 this season) and Mecke will shake off Nightmare Alley (4) early on. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,9/8 and Trifectas 3,8/5,6,7,9/3,8,9

8th – Contenders Only (B) – SS Seraphim (3) is simply moving through her conditions and won at today’s distance in last. Athens Two O Four (5) goes for Delacour and she had 10 layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Will have to bring it to another level to win here. Dovita (7) has won two and had a sub-12 final fraction in last, but expectations are not high that struggling trainer Ray Tamargo Jr. will get it done here. Win (3), Saver Exactas 5,7/3 and 3,5,7/1,4/3,5,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Megaconfusion (3) has good early speed and takes a drop for Freddie Hyatt who goes to Ronnie Allen Jr. to bring her home. Pearl’s Unbridled (1) improved in 2nd start at Tampa and had the best dirt fig in the field in last. Switch to Millwood is not encouraging though. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,6,9/3/1,6,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (A) – That’s My Man (1) was at or above par, early and late, in two of last three and benefits from the inside post position here. Newcomer Jillian Andreasen goes to #2 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. Dead Red (10) surprised most as the sixth choice in the wagering last time out, just missing, with a 99 (today’s par is 86). Must overcome PP10 which is only 1-13 (7%) in Turf Sprints this season. Win (1), Saver Exactas 5,8,10/1 and 1/4 and Trifectas 1/5,8,9,10/5,8,9,10

11th – A prime wager – Storm Thief (6) takes a big drop (from a par 73 to a par 65) and Mr, Allen won 38% with Layoff + Dropdown angle in L2T. Races at this level for the first time in his career. Allen’s looking to make him eligible for the $5000 starter allowance condition and hopes that no one is watching on the last day of a long season. I expect he’ll be claimed. Thief has been ITM in 7-9 at Tampa and has a clean record and looks like a winner among these. Very Arrogant (10) just hung in last, switches to Centeno, won five races as a 4YO and is ITM 50% of the time. Represents the main threat here. I said I was off Sir Swervalot (3) the moment he dropped to this level and he’s been the beaten favorite in all four since. Don’t let him take your action today! Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,10/6 and Trifectas 6,10/2,3,5/2,3,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 05/02/09

2009-04-28T20:33:00.011-04:00

2008-2009
Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....21-70 (30%) -$20.20 (21-16-9) (66% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 297 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)

101 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
138 Exactas (Average Payoff $30.10)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

2007-2008
Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

On Tuesday, my three soft wagers ran 1st, 2nd and 3rd.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $6 saver exacta returned $26.20,
My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $136.00, and
My 8th race $2 saver exacta returned $14.40

So it goes...

There are only 2 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Petit Roman (2) had %E of 51.13% on off track in debut at 6F and that is very close to today’s ideal %E for 8.5F which is 51.05%. HVG has the return call and he was ITM seven times in last three race days, as many of the leaders are moving on. I know he’ll be looking to clean up this last weekend. Bullseye Boy (9) was closest to par in last two. Unspacely (8) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Win (2), Saver Exacta 9/2 and Trifectas 2,9/1,10,12/1,2,9,10,12

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Catch a Peek (2) has been ITM in last three with Centeno up and O’Connell/Centeno team is 68% ITM this season. Catch a Peek won two of last ten, the best record among these. Deus Vult (5) had the best fig in the field in last and goes for Lynn Scace who wins 22% with fastbacks and 24% with stretchouts. Deserves another chance in second try at the N1Y level. Photo Image (11) is the wildcard here. Ness won two last year with Photo Image after claiming her for Sukharan for $25,000. She was trounced as the beaten favorite in last after racing well all winter. Ness has his best winning angle %’s going here, but this a negative drop to me. I just can’t put her on top. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,11/2 and Trifectas 2/5,6,7,8,11,12/5,11

3rd – A prime wager – Three On a Match (3) comes back fast after having the best fig in the field in last. Also had two of the best final fractions in the field after racing into fast early paces in last two (including the last that went on a Turf course with a -12 variant). Griffin had two fastback wins in L2T. Butler is a solid 10% turf rider. Win (3), Exactas 3/1,4,5 and Trifectas 3/1,4,5/2,8,9

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Deep Silence (3) was blocked for a time in the stretch, swung wide for racing room and was up for 2nd in a photo in last. Comes back fast for Hayford who will be trying again today. Mr. Georges Dreams (6) has figs that are good enough to put these away and has HVG in the irons today. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,5,7,8,10/3,6

5th – A prime wager – Doctor Carina (1) was shuffled back for racing room in the backstretch and on the far turn, was 8th entering, got thru in the stretch and finished very strongly but was too late in last. Final fraction in that one was an untouchable 11.68. Centeno has the return call. Pink Tights (7) was covered up entering, swung wide for racing room in the stretch and was flying late to be up for 2nd in last. Tights is the main threat here. O’Connell has 9-2 ML SS Royal Endeavor (2) but she won only 9% coming rightback in L3T and only 11% with L1-3’s. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1/All/7 and 1/2,7/2,7

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Celebration Dance (7) just missed in first race at this level and is 8-10 ITM at Tampa now and has eight 2nds in 20 starts. Scace and Mike Allen team up for the win here. Too Much Zip (4) has powerful Ness angles going (Route-to-Sprint 50% and Fastback 32%) and Zip had solid fig in N2L win two back. Tangerine Rose (9) had two solid efforts before tiring at 7F. Shortens up today and goes for Scace who wins 24% (51% ITM) with L1-3’s. Asteria Meadow (1) had a big winning fig in last but Ubide has not won rightback in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 4,9/7 and Trifectas 4,7/4,7,9/1,3,9,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Dennis Manning has Victory Alleged (8) and he will be ready. Victory came off a long layoff to be 2nd in last year’s Chris Thomas Turf Classic and 13 of 18 of Manning’s wins in L4T were Layoffs. Earned an honest 90 in Tampa Bay in February, running down the leader after staying close to the fast pace throughout. Sporting Art (5) likes to go long and leaves Graded Stakes company for Clement, who has been flawless this season. Centeno was up for 10 of his 12 wins. Sir Dave (3) had monstrous final fractions of 11.76 and 11.33 in last two on the grass and is on the way up. PID’s 2008 riding champion Dale V. Beckner has the call aboard Fierce Wind who is FTT today and who is to question William Phipps and his 62% win record. Win (8), Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Trifectas 3,5,8/1a,2,4/3,5,8

8th – Contenders Only (D) – Cayo Costa (5) was 2nd best in debut and stretches out for Julie Luhr here. Luhr has had several stretchout winners in L2T and I’m sure she would like to see longtime Breeder/Owner Stella F. Thayer go home happy this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/3,4/3,4,5,6

9th – Contenders Only (C) – Therecomesatiger (2) was beaten by the heavily favored and well backed Baron Von Tap last time out and was simply outgunned in that one. Has a softer spot here. Liquid Amber (5) had sub-12 final fractions all last summer and has been working well for return. Alexander has lots of Layoff winners, and Centeno is 63% ITM with Alexander’s runners. Transit of Venus (8) is 58% ITM on the grass and drew off smartly in last two. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2,8/2,5,8,9/2,5,8,9

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Ay Papi (8) was above par in 4 of last 6 dirt routes and has been working well for return. Alexander goes to Centeno again. 3F work from the gate on 4/21 was two clicks above par for bullet works from the gate at that distance. CJ’s Whatsinaname (1) has been at or close to par in last five starts. Dehn had 3 winners and 5 ITM in last three race days. Nomudderafleet (3) was close to CJ’s Whatsinaname in last and seems to like going long. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,3/8 and Trifectas 8/1,3/4,5,6,7

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Fizzy Pop (8) had a great year in 2008 and drops in class here for bomb maker Bernell Rhone who wants to get Fizzy’s 2009 season finally going. Raced into moderately fast fractions throughout in 2009 grass debut. Had bullet work at 5F last week. Fizzy Pop may pop this afternoon. Win (8), Exacta Box 2,4,8 and Trifectas 2,4,8/2,4,8/3,5,10

12th – Contenders Only (B) – Bakers Eye Candy (7) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 37% with L4-8 + types. Genuine Heart (6) was very close to par in first two tries. Gerry Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with 3TSs. Win (7), Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/3,4,5,9/6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/28/09

2009-04-26T20:26:00.006-04:00

2008-2009
Prime Wager Results.14-36 (39%) -$12.60 (14-4-7) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-67 (30%) -$18.40 (20-15-8) (64% ITM)

2007-2008
Prime Wager Results 65-211(30.8%) +$20.00 (65-30-27) (57.8% ITM)

2008-2009 Seasonal Recap: 293 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)

100 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
135 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.50)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Sunday, the chalk had a tough time of it and my prime wager in the 7th, Silver Eagle, was OOM with no excuse and my soft wager in the 10th, Tytus, failed to respond and settled for 3rd.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 2nd, Fleet Rita, $3.80, and
My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $33.80

So it goes...

There are only 3 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Tuesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st - Contenders Only (C) - Clemson (9) had great first call fraction on a -17 variant sloppy track last time out and has two 2nds in last two races. Gets another chance here with #3 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. up. HVG jumps from Winblaiseandshow (1) to ride Ocala Girl (6) and that one has been staying a little bit longer with each start and shortens up today. Generation Speed (7) was flying early two back, shortens up and adds blinkers for accomplished veteran trainer Gary Caple. Fortunate Flight (8) has had three 2nds in nine starts and shortens up after flashing speed in 2009 debut. Allen had the mount aboard Fortunate Flight four times last year and opts to ride Clemson today, a good sign for Clemson and a not so good sign for Fortunate Flight. Win (9), Saver Exactas 6,7,8/9 and Trifectas 6,8,9/1,2,7/6,8,9

2nd – A soft wager – Reason to Rejoice (7) drops from open company where she was outgunned in last, beaten by Jenna Lu Hu and Waitingfor Tonight, both winners of their last races. That one went in 70, today’s par is 57. Had the best fig in today’s field in last win on February 3rd. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,5/7 and Trifectas 7/3,5,8/1,2,3,4,5,8

3rd – Contenders Only (D) – In last, Sherribaldi (6) was shuffled back for lack of room on the backstretch, swung around a tiring leader on the turn, and then finished strongly for the win. That one went in an above par 54, today’s par is 49. Had dynamite work on 4/11. Looks like Caple wants to steal another at long odds with winless Cedeno in the irons. Win (6), Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,3,7/2,5,6

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Barrington Hills (3) was claimed by McCooey last time out. McCooey had three longshots ITM off-the-claim in L2T. Returns to a sprint today where last was a respectable 3rd place finish. Criollo has Alasan (6) a FTS that belongs to veteran owner and Trainer Bob Van Worp. HVG has the mount. April 5th workout was a couple of clicks above the bullet par for 3F from the gate. Advice to Sinners (12) has disappointed as the beaten favorite in last six races and goes from PP12 today. Enough is enough. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/1,3,6,12/1,3,6,12

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Native Yell (2) goes for KO’C and she wins 20% with all the angles that are in play here. Vail is 3-7 ITM on the grass. Without the AEs this field is weak with a capital “W”. Siccardi (6) has a pair of Z Patterns going and %E is in the zone. Sunday Delight (10) had a 12.30 final fraction for the last 3.5F in January start at GP and a repeat of that effort would be enough to beat these. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,10 and Trifectas 2,6,10/ 5,6,11/2,6,10

6th –A soft wager – Sweet Apple Betty (5) goes for Lynn Scace and she wins 60% with the L1-3 + RB + UC angle. Last was a par effort so repeat appears likely. Jolley has Afleet’s Passion (7) and the Layoff Shipper was at or above par in most of her starts. Great work on 4/7. However, Jolley has no Layoff winners at Tampa. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,9/2,3,5,7,9

7th – A soft wager – Runaway Sun (5) was sub-23 on the clubhouse turn and sub-24 on the backstretch in last, completely untouchable fractions that will bring him home first. A very slow pace can hurt, but Runaway Sun will just be that much closer to the up front action. Unpinkable (9) hung late after leading throughout with fast fractions in last. Seems to like being out front. Terminal Burst (6) has satisfactory final fractions and could be up for a piece. Win (5), Saver Exactas 3,9/5 and Trifectas 5,9/1,3,6,7/3,5,6,9

8th – Contenders Only (C) – Marblehead (8) comes back fast and drops after trying the grass. Previous was above par effort at today’s distance. Connelly had a fastback winner last season. Will be looking for a win in last start of the season. Seeking Affairs (7) was second best in last at 7F and goes Sprint-to-Route today. %E is in the zone. Mike Straight has the return call for winless Lamoureux. Win (8), Saver Exacta 7/8 and Trifectas 7,8/3,4/3,4,7,8

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Shot of Silver (6) won with a par effort in sprint on the grass at Remington in the fall, next three were ITM. Takes a drop today and Butler sticks for Rhone. Recent works have been good. Looks like the value play of the day here. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,9/6 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,4,5/4,6,9

10th – Contenders Only (B) – Peak of the Storm (10) was second best as the beaten favorite in last. Gets another chance in 2nd try at this level. Bennett wins 21% (43%ITM) with 2L1-3s. Chelly Graeme (3) drops after racing forwardly early in last. Had excellent work six days ago. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3/10 and Trifectas 3,10/5,6,7,8/3,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/26/09

2009-04-26T07:53:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 291 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)

99 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
134 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
54 Trifectas (Average Payoff $138.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Dixville, $4.60
My 6th race $4 saver exacta returned $28.00,
My 9th race $12 trifecta returned $81.60, and
There were two scratches am0ng my contenders only selections.

So it goes...

There are only 4 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) - Klondike Belle (1) had best early fractions before fading after 6F in last. Goes for Mark Passley who has had 3 MC winners this season and adds leading rider Daniel Centeno. Bipette (4) woke up at 66-1 in last and raced professionally in that one. Little Freebie (6) was well placed early at 8.18F in last and returns to a sprint today where she was 2nd two back. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,4,6 and Trifectas 1,6/2,4,5/1,4,6

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Fleet Rita (9) has been racing forwardly all season and today Bennett has the Route-to-Sprint + Dropdown angle going, where he wins 23%. Ally’s Girl (1) was roughed up at the start in 2009 debut and raced on Sloppy track, deserves another chance. Bajan Rihanna (8) has two ITM in the Slop this season and may improve on a fast surface, but Rhone wins only 5% on the stretchout and fig at 7F does not instill confidence here. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,8/9 and Trifectas 1,9/3,5,6,7,8/1,9

3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Imarealguy (6) was 2nd after racing into fast early pace last time out, retains Centeno and had bullet work three days ago. The 6YO is having the best season of his career this year at Tampa. Demagoguery (2) loves the course and always gives his best. Last was well above par for this level, so handling the bump up should not present a problem. Regwell (5) may have lost his form since winning eight weeks ago and there are no Ness angles to work here. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/4,5,7/2,5,6

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Hell of a Bell (3) comes back in four days for Gogas after going the first four in 48.28 in last and losing badly as the beaten favorite. Was supposed to win, no doubt, going off $1.40-1 after a one year layoff. I’m guessing the horse has been exercising regularly with some stablemates and didn’t figure out that this was the real thing. Was hardly used and is well intended again here. I don’t have much faith in apprentice Faith Schorr (aboard the 1, Multiphone) but I’m sure she has faith in herself. Win (3), Exacta Box 1,3,9 and Trifectas 1,3,9/5,6,10/1,3,9

5th – Contenders Only (A) - Itch (4) was well above par in last and adds L1 today. However, Lerman is winless on the grass in 17 tries this season. Caple has Glory of Power (9) and he is only 1-10 on the turf this year. Michele Dehn rides Invisible Genius (8) and she was OOM in three starts on the grass. Clement has Western Influence (7) and the Clement/Centeno team has been very successful this year, but this firster does not appear to be extraordinary. Win (4), Saver Exacta 9/4 and Trifectas All/9/4

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Eileen’s Joy (4) comes rightback for Bruce Alexander after posting a respectable 43 in maiden win (today’s par is 47). Alexander wins 25% with rightbacks. Centeno has the return call. Dance Mistress (5) gave way after five panels in last and shortens up today. Wilson goes to Butler, a positive jockey switch. Win (4), Saver Exacta 5/4 and Trifectas 4,5/2,6,7,8,9/4,5

7th - A prime wager – Silver Eagle (9) faced the best on the grounds in last three and held his own with all sub-12 final fractions and above par figs. Moves through N1X condition today. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,5,8/9 and Superfecta 9/1,5,8/1,5,8/3,7,10

8th – Contenders Only (B) – Chobe (7) shortens up for Ness and sheds 9 lbs.in switch to Mike Straight. Ness wins 38% (73%ITM) with shorten ups. However, Chobe will be without the “go juice” or whatever that was found in Ness’ barn earlier this week (see link http://www.drf.com/news/article/103169.html ). Speculator (4) won in a driving rain, then just missed on a Good surface, then won on a fast track. This horse loves to run and that is what it’s all about. Win (7), Saver Exacta 4/7 and Trifectas 4,7/All/4,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Drinkwater (6) set fast early pace and hung late in last. If he can repeat that effort here, it looks like they’ll all be chasing throughout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1a,5/6 and Trifectas 6/3,4,7/1a,5

10th – A soft wager - Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ½ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire two back at 6F. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Then went 8.18F and led in the stretch before hanging. Shortens up to 7F today and Centeno has the return call for Ness. Storm Thief’s (2) 100 day absence does not add up and Allen wins only 16% with L4-8’s. Poor work eight days ago. Bailey’s Dynasty (7) was closest to par two back and stretches out today. Allen has the return call for Donald Pittman. Win (1), Exacta 1/7 and Trifectas 1/2.7,9,10/2,7,9,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/25/09

2009-04-22T14:57:00.013-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 288 Structured Winning Wagers
(1 out of 3 races after Scratches)
98 Winners (Average Payoff $6.00)
133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:
I had the winner of the 1st, Esprit de Mar, $14.60,
I had the winner of the 3rd, Train to Glory, $15.60,
I had the winner of the 6th, Arhat, $4.20,
My 8th race contenders only selection scratched.

So it goes...

There are only 5 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Dixville (3) was 2nd best in first two tries at rock bottom and appears ready to graduate. Burning Belle (2) has three thirds in last three at the route. Cruising Broadway (7) improves under Centeno. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,7/3 and Trifectas 2,3,7/5,7,8,10/2,3,7

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Bluegrass Girl (2) returns to the dirt and drops in class after going evenly in last two on the grass. Had a par fig at today’s distance in January. Represents the value play here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,3/2 and Trifectas 1,2,3/2,3,4,8/1,3

3rd – Contenders Only (A) – Shadow Belle (4) posted a 77 in 2009 debut (today’s par is 68) with awesome turn time. Ziadie wins 35% rightback and 27% going up in class. Shortens up today. Dehn has the return call and Belle carries her at 109 lbs. today. I’ve touted Juicy Loots’ (2) virtues all season and she’s disappointed five times. This is her last chance this season. Just for Kicks (7) goes for Ness and he won 4 of 5 with the Layoff + Route-to-Sprint + Dropdown angle in L2T. Win (4), Exacta Box 2,7,4 and Trifectas 4,7/2,3,5/2,4,7

4th – Contenders Only (C) – In last, Perf (3) was checked for racing room on the backstretch, was bumped hard in the stretch and then was forced to the outside by that one before getting going late, but could not get up in time. Bennett moves the 3YO up in class and Allen sticks. Bullet work four days ago. Boo Bear (2) goes for Philip Oliver and he had three Layoff winners with MSWs in L2T. Adds L1 and Carlos Cruz. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,7,12/3 and Trifectas 3,7,12/2,4,5/3,7,12

5th – Contenders Only (D) – Warm Memories (10) was close in three of last six at the route and comes back to Tampa where he was ITM last time out. Centeno has the call. Alonzo is 50% win and place this season at Tampa and must be respected. Win (10), Saver Exactas 1,7/10 and Trifectas 7,10/1,9/1,7,9,10

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Jackies Causeway (2) has four seconds in last five races and was above par in all of them. O’Connell goes to Allen in absence of RoHo. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,9/2 and Trifectas 2/All/1,9

7th – Contenders Only (A) – Sweet Yulianna (1) was a solid 2nd in Sophomore Stakes three weeks ago and drops for Ziadie who wins 29% (71%ITM) on the dropdown. Switches to hot apprentice Mike Straight. Win (1), Saver Exactas 3,4/1 and Trifectas 1/5,7/3,4,5,7

8th – Contenders Only (C) – High on Candy (9) improves with each start and had the best final fraction in last. Velez sticks for Cibelli. Rare Ransom (5) had sub-12 final fraction two back, then was well placed and gave way in last. Tax and Spend (7) failed to gain after being taken up in last and that one went in fast fractions throughout. Win (9), Saver Exactas 5,7/9 and Trifectas 9/1,2,3,4/5,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Finally Remembered (4) comes back to the dirt where she had impressive debut. Figures to improve here for Cataldi, and Martinez has the return call. Eventful Halo (9) had three seconds in last three and is the main threat here. Win (4), Saver Exacta 9/4 and Trifectas 4,9/1,2,7/4,9

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Lady Rizzi (5) is a classy mare that likes to run with the boys. Finds a softer spot today after being soundly beaten in Turf Dash last month. Should put these away. Rockhurst (6) goes for Mike Dini and he had four Layoff + Shipper winners in L3T. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,7/5 and Trifectas 5,6/1,7/1,5,6,7

11th – Contenders Only (B) – Lakeside Run (9) made a solid late run in last on the grass and goes for Delacour who has had an awesome season and has been successful with the Turf-to-Dirt + Dropdown this year. Cotto sticks. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,6,7/9 and Trifectas 9/1,7/1,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/22/09

2009-04-22T07:20:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 285 Winning Wagers
95 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)
133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

My contenders only selections were skunked as longshots carried the day, win, place and show.

So it goes...

Wednesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (D) – Esprit de Mar (4) drops a notch today after 2009 debut on off track one week ago where he chased before fading. Was ITM two back with a fig that would put these away. Switches to HVG. Alie’s Fabian showed all his cards in last and will be trying again today. Western Flight (7) was ITM two back before racing on the off track in last. Win (4), Exacta Box 4,5,7 and Trifecta Box 4,5,7,9

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Wynn’s Wild Flower (3) had three solid efforts and shortens up today. Sweetsformyhoney (11) was up for 2nd as the beaten favorite in last. Dotpower is one dimensional and will be pressured throughout. Win (3), Saver Exacta 11/3 and Trifectas All/3/11

3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Train to Glory (6) is poised to make this year’s campaign as good or better than last years. Comes back fast after being ridden out in last. Polynesian Sunset (4) has %E that says “yes” to the stretchout and Ness wins 44% with the angle. Levy Light (8) is on top of her game with three 2009 wins at Tampa. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,8/6 and Trifectas 6,8/1,3,4/4,6,8

4th – Contenders Only (B) – A Question of Time (4) returns to the dirt where last two were solid efforts. Bennett wins 26% with L1-3’s. Reprisal (3) is also racing well in sprints this season. No Fancy Title (6) worked well last week and may be ready for big return for Bennett who wins 25% (50% ITM) with L9up types. Win (4), Exacta Box 3,4,6 and Trifectas 4/3,5,6,8/3,6

5th – Contenders Only (A) – Bohemian Dream (10) had fast late fractions despite weakening in deep stretch in last. Get A Lawyer (8) goes with him again but has Centeno this time. 7YO Arhat’s (5) debut surprised many and he lacked room at the end of the turn and was going well at the finish. RoHo has only one mount today and it’s the return call on Arhat. Looks like a positive sign. Win (5), Saver Exactas 8,10/5 and Trifectas 10/5/All

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Baroccorocco (8) had good early fractions and was very close to par in first two tries at the downs and shortens up today. CV Slew (1) goes for 26% newcomer Earl Begley. Another with good early speed and drops to the bottom today. Inside post likely to hamper Slew. Europa Dancer (6) has very generous ML after being ITM with solid figs in four of last six. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,6/8 and Trifectas 8/All/1,6

7th – Contenders Only (B) – Mr. Guska (3) comes back to Chad Stewart and he won with Mr. G at 5F on the grass going Dirt to Turf last season. Fast early fractions in last win make it look right. Not Acclaim (9) drops for Ziadie and he wins 29% (71%ITM) with dropdowns. Switch to Straight lightens the load. Win (3), Saver Exacta 9/3 and Trifectas 3,9/2,4,6/3,9

8th – Contenders Only (B) – Seniors Pride (7) was closest to par in last two and shortens up for Ziadie who wins 30% (45%ITM) with the angle. Jewel Heist (6) had respectable debut and Scace wins 25% (42%ITM) with 2TSs. Glory Charge (8) comes back to a sprint after waking up going long. Ryan has Footcandles (10) and he wins 21% in first three off the layoff. Footcandles drops after showing something in first three. Win (7), Saver Exactas 6,8,10/7 and Trifectas 7/1,4,8/6,8,10

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Rumor Has It (6) plummets in class while going for Hinsley. Hinsley and Centeno hooked up with a layoff winner on the grass in 2007.Pitchnicholas (2) had 11.89 final fraction in last and is always very tough at this level. Heza Wild Guy (8) has a high win % on the grass and is classy but Rhone wins only 10% with layoffs. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,8,9/2,6,8

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Magic Kipper (6), winner of last and a 50% ITM lifetime runner comes back after a six week rest for Debbie Artz. Appears to be well intended. Unlimited Funds (5) goes for McCarthy but she wins only 4% with fastbacks. Uno Way Calle (11) has been playing musical chairs all season and is back to McCarthy presently but McCarthy wins only 4% on the stretchout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,4,7/6 and Trifectas 4,6,7/5,11/3,4,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/21/09

2009-04-19T17:19:00.006-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-35 (40%) -$10.60 (14-4-7) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 285 Winning Wagers
95 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)
133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Advice to Sinners, settled for third.

Among my contenders only selections:
I had the winner of the 4th, Straight Lady Luck, $3.40,
I had the winner of the 6th, Mi Helena, $5.00, and
I had the winner of the 9th, Rush to Dinner, $8.60

So it goes...

There are only 7 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Tuesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/:

1st - Contenders Only (B) – Proud Escapade (6) drops to this level for the first time since breaking maiden at Suffolk last June and has been ITM seven times since then. Fits perfectly here and had the best fig in the field in last. Mikes Classic (4) was the beaten favorite in last two and shortens up for Ziadie who wins 30% (45% ITM) with shorten up types. Coin in the Sand’s (3) one year absence and the big drop indicate physical problems. Robert G. Smith had no long layoff winners in L3T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 4/6 and Trifectas 6/1,2,7/4

2nd – Contenders Only (A) – Lightly raced Tactoro (4) goes for Dale Bennett who won 50% with 2L4-8’s, 33% (61%ITM) with dropdowns and 40% (52%ITM) with shorten ups in L2T. The entry and the 5 have figs that are good enough to win this one. Ziadie has monster stats for this situation but Siphon City (8) has not won a race since July of 2006. Two year layoff Belichick (3) is a crapshoot and gets a play in the tri only. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,5/4 and Trifectas 3,4/1,5/1.3.4.5.7.8

3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Crazy Truth (9) was very close to par in last, shortens up and sheds 7 lbs. in switch to hot apprentice Mike Straight. Finished no worse than 4th in last five starts. Win (9), Saver Exactas 5,12/9 and Trifectas 9/2,6,8/5,12

4th – Contenders Only (C) - Pompano Beach Rose (9) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with RB + Stretchout + UC angle in L2T. Was ITM in last seven and is certainly the one to beat. Anne’s Dancer (3) goes long where she was above par in last at the route on a fast surface. Magical Isis (8) is lightly raced and is a typical speedball that keeps going now and then. Win (9), Saver Exactas 3,8/9 and Trifectas 3,9/2,4,6,7,8/3,9

5th - Contenders Only (D) – Storm Harbor (3) had the only sub-12 final fraction in the field in last on grass and Butler is up again. Was above par in NY in 3YO season and was sent south to start paying off. Win (3), Saver Exactas 4,10,13,14/3 and Trifectas 3/All/4,10

6th – Contenders Only (B) – The 5YO Rainbow Glider (3) shortens up today, has solid figs this season and two 2nds in last three tries. Cabre (2) switches to Allen, has been gently used this season and tries the route again after showing something in last two sprints. Brotherinlaw (4) was closest to par in maiden win. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4/3 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,7,8,12/2,3

7th – Contenders Only (B) – Deerborough (4) raced forwardly for 6 panels and into a 12.10/f pace in the Turf Classic. Had a sub-12 final fraction in previous. Opportune Moment (6) was above par in last two and with a sub-12 final in last. Trippin Up (7) switches to Centeno and shortens up after three solid performances for Bruce Alexander. Win (4), Exacta Box 4,6,7 and Trifectas 4,6,7/1,5,9/4,6,7

8th – Contenders Only (A) – Valley Loot (5) is one of Allen’s star performers and she won after a five month layoff last season. Loot has the best record and highest lifetime earnings. Works indicate readiness. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,3/5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/2,5,6/1,3,5

9th – Contenders Only (A) – We Will Rock You (3) goes for leading turf trainer (33% on the grass) Clement and his go to rider Daniel Centeno. Clement has had numerous layoff winners in L3T and the Rock was well above par in last three on the grass. Win (3), Saver Exactas Plain1,7/3 and Trifectas 3/1,7/All

10th – Contenders Only (D) – Larissa’s Dream (9) raced forwardly in last two and Griffith switches to Mike Straight. Had the best fig in the field two back. Wynn’s Story (1) has been working well for debut and benefits from inside post in short run to the turn. Openly Sneaky (7) gets L1 and another chance in first off Begley claim. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,7/9 and Trifectas 1,7,9/1,7,9/2,3,5,6

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/19/09

2009-04-18T16:08:00.013-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-34 (41%) -$8.60....(14-4-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-66 (30%) -$16.40 (20-15-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 282 Winning Wagers
92 Winners (Average Payoff $5.80)
133 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
53 Trifectas (Average Payoff $139.40)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Saturday:
My soft wager in the 6th, Mac Speed, was 2nd in a photo,
My soft wager in the 7th, Grimaldi, was not ready after the layoff and was out of the money, and
My prime wager in the 8th, Luckman, had to settle for 2nd.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 2nd race $6 saver exacta returned $42.60,
I had the winner of the 4th, Gato Paso, $7.00,
My 11th race $24 trifecta box returned $92.20, and
My 12th race contenders only selection scratched.

So it goes...

There are only 8 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – A Slick Chic (2) drops to the bottom for Ness but Allen jumps to stay with Queen Maddie (7). Ness wins 39% (63%ITM) with dropdowns. Straight cooled off Tuesday and Wednesday, but he didn’t have any live ones either. Ashley and I (5) is 62% ITM lifetime and was above par in six of last ten. Clearly needed last one after long layoff and my fig has her much closer to par than the bible. Queen Maddie (7) was at or above par in two of last three. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,7/5 and DD’s 2,5,7/5

2nd – A prime wager – Advice to Sinners (5) was 8 1/2 back at the 2nd Call, was flying through the stretch and needed only a couple of more strides to put the winner away in last. Was up close in last two at the route and is 5-5 ITM at Tampa this season. Ness wins 44% (52% ITM) with Route-to-Sprints. Shady Spot’s (6) %E is close to the lower parameter for the distance and Barrington Hills (2) is close to the upper parameter but both are in the zone and must be considered contenders. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,6/5 and Trifectas 5/All/2,6 and DD’s 5/4,8,9

3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Suave Angel (4) may be 1-25 but she’s 7-9 ITM at Tampa. Last two were close to par. Cruz has been winning at a 25% streak for the past ten days. Suave Angel had a solid work four days ago. Pyrite Beautiful (9) flashed speed in last at 7F before weakening after a half mile. Shortens up today and sheds 7 lbs. in switch to Dehn. Looks like Berry’s been racing her into condition and it’s now or never with only two weeks left to the season. Win (9), Exacta Box 4,8,9 and Trifectas 4,8,9/1,3,6,10/4,8,9

4th – Contenders Only – (A) – Straight Lady Luck (7) has been racing into fast early paces and has been hard to get going but today she races with a weak field and is bound to be closer early. Centeno has the return call. Pure Miracle (3) had a couple of strengtheners at the route before racing in the slop at 7F in last. If bomb maker Behrens is going to try, it’s today. Win (7), Saver Exacta 3/7 and Trifectas 7/All/3

5th – Contenders Only – (B) – See I A (6) had best fig in the field two back at 7F, goes 6.5F today and faces three rock bottom maiden winners here. Should shake’em all off for his 2nd win. Carte Blanche (2) goes for Cibelli and she is 86% ITM with Non-shipping L1-3 + Dropdown angle in L2T. Cibelli/Lopez team is 54% ITM this season. Prince David (9) goes for Kaelin and he was 50% ITM with Route-to-Sprints in L2T. O’Connell has Atsatsuki (5) but she wins only 13% with L1-3 + types. Win (6), Saver Exacta 2/6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,4,7,8,9/2,6

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Mi Helena (5) has been close at 8.5F, had the best final fraction in the field two back and all her fractional times indicate superiority over these. Bobbin’forgold (3) goes for Leigh Delacour who has racked up 10 Layoff winners in L2T and wins 26% rightback. Iguana Joe (8) goes for 50% ITM trainer Tom Proctor and Proctor switches to leading rider Daniel Centeno today. Win (5), Saver Exactas 3,8/5 and Trifectas 3,5,8/3,4,6/3,5,8

7th – Contenders Only (C) – A Curious Lady (8) made a quick move on the turn to put away the leader, gained a two length advantage and gave nothing back in the stretch in last, her third victory since September. Cibelli is 54% ITM with rightbacks and A Curious Lady shortens up today. Shoe Babe (11) has been working extremely well and had above par figs at the Big A over the winter. Babe is the main threat here and gets another chance after off-track debut at the Downs. Win (8), Saver Exacta 11/8 and Trifectas 8,11/6,10/6,8,10,11

8th – Contenders Only (C) – Photo Image (7) is in good form now and is always trying. Ness and HVG have both been hot. Private Ruthie (4) is eliminated from contention as JJ Delgado tries the grass. Win (7), Saver Exactas 5,12/7 or 2,5/7 (if 12 is out) and Trifectas 5,7,12/2,3,6,10/5,7,12 or 2,5,7/3,6,10/2,5,7 (if 12 is out).

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Rush to Dinner (1) was close to par in last at 6.5F and shortens up to 5F where he had the best fig in the field at the distance. Mike Straight is up again. Apollyoncomesfirst (6) goes for Frances Gogas, who had four Layoff winners in L3T. Takes a drop after trying the poly. Had bullet work at the Oakridge Equine Center a couple of weeks ago. Win (1), Saver Exacta 6/1 and Trifectas All/1,6/1,6

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Xep for Elmer was closest to par in last and was above par two back and that’s more than the rest of these can say. Lite Brigade (2) and Boots Are Walking (9) duked it out in last and are the main competition in an event that is filled mostly with favors to the Racing Secretary. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,9/3 and Trifectas 3/2,9/All

11th – Contenders Only (D) – Too Much Zip (4) comes rightback and goes long for Ness who wins 38% rightback and 44% with Sprint-to Route types. Zip is usually above par and fits here. Centeno is up. Nomudderafleet (2) is ITM in 10 of 21 and last was close to par. Pompano Beach Rose (7) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with RB + Stretchout + UC angle in L2T. Give Me a Smooch (8) was outgunned in last and takes a sensible drop for Arterburn. Smooch is almost always above par and gets another chance here. Win (4), Saver Exactas 2,7,8/4 and Trifectas 4/3,5,9/2,7,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/18/09

2009-04-15T16:05:00.018-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-64 (31%) -$12.40 (20-14-7) (64% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 279 Winning Wagers

91 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)
132 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.30)
52 Trifectas (Average Payoff $140.30)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 10th, Supply Guy, was out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Lil Skeletol, $5.40,
My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $19.60,
I had the winner of the 5th, Courting Cat, $6.20,
My 5th race $16 trifecta returned $109.20,
I had the winner of the 6th, Polarity, $4.00,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.80,
I had the winner of the 9th, Ixtabentun, $3.60, and
One of my contenders only wagers scratched today.

So it goes...

There are only 9 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (B) – Winblaiseandshow (6) has %E that is in the zone for the stretchout and was ITM in 9 of 17. HVG has been hot recently and HVG has the return call for Eddie Clark, sticking with Winblaiseandshow over Wynns Message (8) who just hung in last at today’s distance. Dawns Fearless Son (7) had the best fig in the field in last and shortens up after weakening in the final furlong in that one. Dawn has shown good early speed at the route in last three and has had only six starts. Sneaky Guy (3), the 5-2 ML favorite, was the beaten favorite in two of last three, had disappointing figs in last two, and O’Connell goes to low % apprentice Michele Dehn. O’Connell wins 0% with fastbacks and only 14% with the Sprint-to-Route angle. Time to lay against. Win (6), Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 3,6/3,6,7,8/3,6,7,8

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Sarkozy (9) was above par in last in a game effort and shortens up for Ray Tamargo Jr. Allen sticks. St. Patrick’s Jet (8) has %E that is in the target zone and has been improving. Call On Joshua (11) was close at today’s distance eight weeks ago and Fontana has his successful Distance Change + Jockey Change angle going here. Bullseye Boy (10) was above par in last on WF surface but has had 23 tries. Win (9), Exacta Box 8,9,11 or Saver Exactas 6,8,10/9 (if 11 doesn’t go) and Trifectas 9/1,2,7/6,8,10,11

3rd – Contenders Only – (C) – First we’ll deal with the favorites. Voodoomon (2) goes for McMullen and he had no L9 & up winners in L2T. Had a great work on 3/14 and has Centeno up, but no horse should be 9-5 after a 16 month layoff. Sir Swervalot (6). We know he had a physical problem when Ness opted for the class drop three back but the horse has heart and he keeps trying. If the problem was fixed Ness would move him back up, but he doesn’t. Could win but I think Ness is hoping to lose him. Bello Pappa (10) is a dueler who seems to have gotten discouraged after failing to have it his own way up front recently. Today, Very Arrogant (3) goes with him to add insult to injury. Now Florida Boy (4) on the other hand, had a decent (albeit sub-par) fig in last and has been ITM in two of last three and Camilo is always dangerous for a price. Win (4), Exacta Box 2,4,6 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,5,8/2,4,6

4th – Contenders Only – (B) – Gato Paso (2) surprised in debut at the route on the grass and had the best fig in the field among the grass runners here and she was three clicks above par for bullet works at 4F a week ago. Cynthia’s Secret (3) goes for KO’C and she won 50% (67%ITM) with FTT angle in L2T, however, Secret’s %E is well outside the upper parameter for 8.5F on the grass. She figures to argue the early pace with Canadian Jade (6) but CJ is very competitive and will get a piece. Moonshine Mania (1) was rallying late in last and will benefit from the extra 110 yards. Awesome Charlie (7) won in a race with a slow pace and a slow finish and there was nothing awesome about it. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,3,6/2 and Trifectas 1,2,6/3,4,5,7/1,2,6

5th – Contenders Only – (B) – I’m Wealthy (2) was close to par in last and was the only horse of the five here that went in that one to hang on for a piece in a race with a blistering fast early pace. Faces those five again and should find the pace more comfortable today. Little Richie (3) faced several winners of two in open company last time out and those have been racing well since. Richie was at or above par in six of last ten. Andrew Hall (5) goes for the master bomb maker Fontana and was trounced in last after racing at or above par in six of eight lifetime. Looks like a setup. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/7,9,10,11/2,3,5

6th – A soft wager – Mac Speed (5) has the best final fractions in the field and was rallying late after being 17 back early in last. KO’C drops her a notch and adds Centeno today. Bon Bon (4) has very reliable final fractions and the GP shipper faces softer today for Garcia who had four winning shippers in L3T. Rice has Topo Gigio (9) but she had no FTS winners on the turf in L3T.Win (5), Saver Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas 4,5/3,10/3,4,5,9,10

7th – A soft wager– Grimaldi (7) goes for Wilson who brings the 3YO back to earth after going long on the grass after impressive maiden win at the Jersey shore last summer. Wilson had an L4-8 winner last year and curiously enough, he had an off-the-claim winner that dropped in class and shortened up last year too. Grimaldi had a monster work at four panels two weeks ago and looks ready. Win (7), Saver Exactas 10,11/7 and Trifectas 7,10,11/3,4,6,9/7,10,11

8th – A prime wager – Luckman (2) was above par in last three and my figs give him an 89-108-77 in those. Today’s par is 76. He stayed with the fast early pace in last but the tank was empty late. By comparison, Luckman and his cousin Flymambo (6) went the same day (on March 28th) and Flymambo just missed with a 65. This is why I make my own figs and I’ve got to stick with them. On April 3rd, I said Lord Louis’ (10) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and that I was not expecting much from him. Walder scratched him that day and again on the 11th. I’m sticking by my assessment. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,8 and Trifectas 2/6,8,10/6,8,10

9th - Contenders Only (D) – Magna Heart (6) was above par in last and was above par in six of last ten. If there is class among trainers, Derek Ryan has it here. Dini and Jeffries both have firsters going but neither has won with a FTS in L4T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 4,10/6 and Trifectas 6/All/4,10

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Loose Goose (1) had the only sub-12 final fraction in last and that was into a moderately fast pace. Bramante surprises often. Haitian (3) has obvious virtues. Been Awhile (5) won last and is 4-7 ITM now. Is He Proud (7) was close up in all four on the grass and Passero often wins with Dirt-to-Turf angle. Vail is a good turf rider. Win (1), Saver Exactas 3,5,7/1, Trifectas 1,3/4,7,8,9,11/1,3,5

11th – Contenders Only (B) – Regent Star (8) was closest to par in last and races at this level for only the 2nd time while shortening up today. The Star is now 9-21 ITM lifetime. Win (8), Saver Exactas 3,4,10/8 and Trifecta Box 3,4,8,10

12th – Contenders Only (C) – Multicard (6) is 5-5 ITM and was gaining slowly in last. Stretches out today. Ottasea (5) and Stepaside Girls (7) are sub-par but fairly reliable. Miami Mood (8) has %E that says no to the stretchout and Switzer has no Sprint-to-Route wins at Tampa. La Corredora (1) takes a negative drop and so does Strike Jak (10) but the latter makes some sense. Sweetsouthernstar (12) comes back fast for Wasiluk and he has at least 12 fastback winners in L3T. Win (6), Saver Exactas 5,7,10,12/6 and Trifectas 1,10/6/5,7,8,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/15/09

2009-04-14T15:52:00.014-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 272 Winning Wagers
87 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)
130 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.50)
51 Trifectas (Average Payoff $141.00)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Alexandra's Halo, $6.40,
My 1st race $12 exacta box returned $40.00,
My 2nd race $12 exacta box returned $40.20,
My 3rd race $36 trifecta returned $15.40 (with the DH for 3rd),
I had the winner of the 7th, Transit of Venus, $3.80,
My 8th race $12 exacta box returned $17.40, and
I had the winner of the 10th, Far Out Fiancee, $7.00
Three of my selections were scratched from Tuesday's card.

So it goes...

There are only 10 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Wednesday's selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (D) - Lil Skeletol (1) goes for Gary Caple and he had three stretchout winners in L2T. %E is in the target zone. Drops to rock bottom here. Chester the Jester goes for Tony Wilson and he had four Layoff winners in L2T. Wynn’s Message (12) was above par in last after waking up for a price. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,10,12 and Trifectas 1,10,12/2,3,7/1,10,12

2nd – Contenders Only (D) – Pi Pops Angel (2) got out then steadied on the backstretch in debut. Pi Pop goes for Enrique Alonso and he had a winner with a GP shipper this season. Depends On Annie (3) goes for KO’C and she wins 17% in first off-the-claim. O’Connell/Homeister team is 50% ITM this season. Sneaky Irish Lass (5) had the best fig in last and Cibelli wins 18% (45%ITM) with 2L1-3s. Win (5), Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/6,7,11/2,3,5

3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Vicar in the House (3) was above par in last after dropping to the $5000 level and is 7-12 ITM in 2008-2009. L.I. Ice Tea had the best fig in the field on 2/5 but hasn’t showed much since. However, he is 50% ITM lifetime at Tampa. Psychic Star (5) and Nana’s Hope (8) have been sub-par but reliable all season. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,5,8/3 and Trifectas 3,5,8/2,4,7/3,5,8

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Hi Chris (8) was above par in 3 of 4 starts and Griffith won 60% with Layoff + Shipper + Shorten Up types in L2T. Jewel Heist (1) had the best fig among recent starters in last and Scace wins 25% (42% ITM) with 2TSs. Salty (6) comes back in 14 days for Larry Bates and he had 5 Fastback winners in L4T. Montalvo sticks. Win (8), Exacta Box 1,6,8 and Trifectas 1,6,8/3,4,9/1,6,8

5th – Contenders Only (B) – Courting Cat (1) had the best fig in the field in last and consistently finishes faster than these. Benefits from three way speed duel between the 3, 5 & 9 and shortens up for McCarthy. Centeno sticks. Win (1), Saver Exacta 5/1 and Trifectas 1,5/3,4,7,9/1,5

6th – Contenders Only (C) – OFF THE TURF - Polarity (10) Ness’ six panel prep for the grass was satisfactory, but as it turns out Polarity simply stretches out today. Ness wins 44% with Sprint-to-Route angle. Win (10), Saver Exactas 4,8/10 and Trifectas 4,8,10/1,5,9,12/4,8,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – In Honor of Voula (1) has been working regularly and consistently with some great clockings for Owen McQuade. McQuade had FTS winner Xep for Elmer in 2007 and Jesse Garcia was aboard that one too! Satly Girl (3) comes back to the dirt for Mary Ann Bennett and drops in class today. Centeno is up and he rode her only other maiden winner in L3T. Five Star Sweetie (11) was close to par in debut, then disappointed as the beaten favorite in 2nd try. Centeno jumps to ride Bennett’s filly. Win (1), Exacta Box 1,3,11 and Trifectas 1,3,11/2,6,9,10/1,3,11

8th – Contenders Only (B) – OFF THE TURF - Proctor comes Rightback with Brave Miz (5) after above par effort in Tampa debut. Centeno sticks (leaving Okefenokee). Pyrite Gem (2) is 9-14 ITM on the dirt and fits now. Okefenokee (3) is a solid 12.10 or better final fraction finisher and on the grass, handles the dirt well, and figures to improve in second off-the-claim for Dale Bennett. Prissy Proxy (6) has %E that is outside the upper parameter for today's race but she is 3-3 ITM and was above par in last. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,3,6/5 and Trifectas 3,5,6/1,2,7,11/3,5,6

9th – Contenders Only (C) – Ixtabentun (5) was above par in debut and goes for Ziadie who was 100% ITM with Layoff + Shipper + Dropdown angle in L2T. Win (5), Saver Exacta 6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/All/5,6

10th – A Soft wager – Supply Guy (2) was given a freshener after winning three races in three months for Ness. Three of the horses that beat him in that very competitive last race (Fortunate Trail, Roboponi and Sneak A Cold Treat) went on to win subsequent races. If Supply Guy hasn’t gone wrong, he wins here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,4,7/2 and Trifectas 2/All/1,4,7

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Catch a Peek (3) is a gently handled 8YO that was 5-9 ITM in 2008-2009 and is under the care of #4 leading trainer Kathleen O’Connell. Centeno has the return call and he jumps off the Robert Raymond runner Wicked Sweet (1) to stick with Catch a Peek. Wicked Sweet was the beaten favorite in last and Centeno’s jumping off does not instill confidence here but Raymond had five 2nd Off-the-Layoff + Stretchout winners in L2T. Did everyone but the bettors know she wouldn’t pop in last or did she genuinely disappoint? The jury is out. Seducing Mr. G (6) was in the zone at 8F in the fall and could surprise here. Miss Approval (8) moves up in class after tiring in last as the beaten favorite. This has me scratching my head too! Win (3), Saver Exactas 1,6,8/3 and Trifectas 1,3/2,4,5,6,8,10/1,3

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/14/09

2009-04-11T17:51:00.010-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)

Seasonal Recap: 265 Winning Wagers
84 Winners (Average Payoff $5.90)
127 Exactas (Average Payoff $29.40)
50 Trifectas (Average Payoff $143.40)
4 Daily Doubles (Average Payoff $18.10)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Quick N Pink, $7.60,
My 1st race $16 trifecta returned $47.20,
I had the winner of the 2nd, Henry the K, $3.80,
I had the winner of the 3rd, R True Lady, $3.00,
I had the winner of the 4th, Count de Baran, $5.00,
My 9th race $12 exacta box returned $13.20,
My 9th race $24 trifecta returned $55.60,
My 11th race $12 exacta box returned $33.80, and
I had the winner of the 12th, Sunapee, $3.60

So it goes...

There are only 11 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Tuesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (B) – Alexandra’s Halo (2) was above par in last two tries at 8.5F and returns to the dirt on the dropdown today. Sly Sara (6) goes for Robert Raymond and he had 7 stretchout winners in L3T. %E is just outside the upper parameter for today’s distance, but it’s close enough to make her a contender here. Little Freebie (7) goes for James Anderson and 4 of his 9 winners in L4T were First Three Off-the-Layoff + Stretchout types. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,6,7 and Trifectas 2,6,7/1,4/2,6,7

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Tawnimara (5) was above or very close to par before stepping up to the open $8000 level. McCarthy won 25% with Plain Dropdown + Shorten Up angle in L2T. Uno Way Calle (6) has been playing musical chairs since the new year began. Calle is back to Ness presently and he wins 39% (70% ITM) with first three off-the-claim. Calle is 10-16 ITM at Tampa, including 3-6 ITM this season. Blazing Prize (7) goes for Mr. Allen and he won 100% with the Non-layoff Dropdown + Route-to-Sprint angle in L2T. Win (6), Exacta Box 5,6,7 and Trifecta 5,7/1,3,4,6,8/5,6,7

3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Lincoln Imp (7) has early speed and goes from PP7. The E/P’s won all five dirt sprints on Saturday and middle and outside posts have won 13 of the last 16 (in dirt sprints). Ima Lowrider (3) goes for Pompay and her only two winners in L3T were GP shippers. Centeno sticks. Looks like a misfire in last. Another chance on the drop. Devilish Mecke (1) has best fig in field in last and RoHo sticks but inside post is a detriment. Win (7), Exacta Box 1,3,7 and Trifectas 1,3,7/2,6,8/1,3,7

4th – Contenders Only (D) – Soaring Storm (9) had the best figs in the field two and three back. Last was on an off track. Improves on a fast surface and with Gonzo back in the irons. Peekaboo Irish (2) goes for Cibelli and she has had 12 Layoff winners in L4T. Peekaboo is 69% ITM in 2008-2009. Montalcino (5) was close in last and has HVG up. Villa-Gomez had 4 winners and 3 seconds in the last three race days. Madonna Blue (7) is 6-6 ITM lifetime but had worst finish of her career in last. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,5,7/9 and Trifectas 3,4,11/2,9/5,7

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Lantern (6) was above par in last two on the grass. Zwiesler won 71% on the Dropdown L2T, won 35% with L1-3’s and was 67% ITM with Dirt-to-Turf types. Solid work at 5F from the gate last week. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,8/6 and Trifectas 3,8/1,2,5,7,10/6

6th – Contenders Only (D) – Wynn a Tour (2) had best fig in the field two back and first try at $8000 level was on an off track so he gets another chance here. Raced close to par in sophomore races at Tampa. Switch to #3 leading rider Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,6,10/2 and Trifectas 1,2/3,4,6,9,10/1,2

7th – Contenders Only (B) – Transit of Venus (6) won last and comes back fast for Ness and he is 83% ITM with Rightback + Fastback types. Venus had the two best final fractions in the field in last two on the turf at GP. The Ness/Cruz team has won 5 of their last 10. Cheeks had three wins last year with Jaredstemper and the first time Jared won he was a Layoff + Shipper. Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,5,7/6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/7,8,14/2,5,6

8th – Contenders Only (B) – Purely Precious (3) was above par in Maiden win, then was saved for another day after setting fast early fractions and getting caught in the Sophomore Stakes ten days ago. Call Nine One One (7) was second to Conchacer in last and he beat Scottish Mystery in that one. Scottish Mystery beat Gaara (2) two back and Gaara looks like the weakest of the three. However, Gaara does have red hot apprentice Mike Straight in the irons. He won three on Saturday. Win (3), Exacta Box 2,3,7 and Trifectas 2,3,7/4,6,8/2,3,7

9th – Contenders Only (B) - We Will Rock You (11) goes for Clement who has won or placed in 19 of 30 this season. Centeno remains hot and this team has won 38% of their attempts this year. Myakka (8) goes for Linda Rice and she had 4 Layoff + Shipper winners in L2T. Looks tough here but Montalvo has been cold (only 1-36 in last 10 days). Megawattie (6) is the best of the locally based runners, was 5-6 ITM on the grass last year and has a win and a 3rd in two tries this year at Tampa. Salty Wave (5) outkicked Megawattie in last and is 4-6 ITM on the grass lifetime. Win (11), Saver Exactas 5,6,8/11 and Trifectas 6,8,11/6,8,11/5,6,8,11 or Win (8), Exacta Box 5,6,8 and Trifectas 5,6,8/5,6,8/ 5,6,7,8 (if the 11 is out).

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Far Out Fiancee (11) goes for Cibelli and she is 86% ITM with Non-Shipping L1-3 + Dropdown types and 60% ITM with Route-to-Sprints. Faces a field of documented sub-par plodders here and should shine this afternoon. Win (11), Saver Exactas 3,4,9/11 and Trifectas 3,11/4,5,9/3,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/11/09

2009-04-08T13:57:00.023-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....20-63 (32%) -$10.40 (20-14-7) (65% ITM)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 4th, Quiet Protest, won handily and paid $3.80.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Train to Glory, $5.00,
I had the winner of the 2nd, Demagoguery, $4.40,
I had the winner of the 5th, EFF Scherr, $6.40,
My 7th race $2 saver exacta returned $20.00,
My 7th race $12 trifecta returned $76.20,
My 8th race $12 exacta box returned $39.80, and
I had the winner of the 9th, Hero's Image, $4.20

So it goes...

There are only 12 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Saturday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (D) – Quick N Pink (5) is a 4yo maiden with 33% ITM. Deserves another chance in only 4th sprint attempt (and only 2nd at this $25,000 level). Crown Colony (1) has the early speed and the figs but Lockhart has no Turf-to-Dirt or Route-to-Sprint winners in L3T. No Pay George (9) goes for Downing and he has had four maiden winners in L3T but a 6YO maiden? Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/1,9

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Henry the K (7) had untouchable turn times at Prairie Meadows in 3YO season and 2009 debut at rock bottom was on an off track. Henry gets another chance here. Ness is 78% ITM with 2L4-8’s, 65% ITM with 2S’s and wins 44% with Route-to-Sprints. HVG had two winners and two seconds Tuesday and Wednesday. Indigo Pagano (4) is 8-20 ITM and goes for the hot stable of Kathleen O’Connell with red hot RoHo in the irons. Waywardwillie (3) flashed speed at 7F and stretches out while dropping to rock bottom. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,4/7 and Trifectas 3,4,7/1,5,6/3,4,7.

3rd – Contenders Only (B) – R True Lady (1) was above par two back and was ridden out in last. Ziadie wins 35% with Rightbacks, 26% with Fastbacks, and 27% with Up In Class types. Hot apprentice Mike Straight has the return call. Win (1), Saver Exactas 4,6,7/1 and Trifectas 1/7,9,10/4,6,7

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Count de Baran (2) goes for Dennis Manning and he is 5-11 on the grass this season. Centeno is up and he has ridden 4 of 6 of Manning’s winners. Count de Baran had the best final fraction in last and has the best fig at today’s distance. Terminal Burst (4) shortens up after a deceivingly decent effort in last. Adds L1 today. Has Gonzalez up and he wins 10% (25%ITM) on the grass. Win (2), Saver Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,4/1,5,8,12/1,2

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Proud Diligence (5) was 10 above par in last and is 3-6 in debut season at Tampa. Griffith win 19% (25%ITM) rightback. Griffith/Montalvo team is 52% ITM this season. Gun It (8) woke up in last and finished close to Proud Diligence. Diligent Won’s (9) figs have improved in last three and last was a par effort. Cruz had 3 ITM Tuesday and Wednesday and Artz/Cruz team is 45% ITM this year. Exacta Box 5,8,9 and Trifectas 5,8,9/1,4,7/5,8,9

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Shanclif (1) was above par in last four, chased a very fast pace in last and had a sub-12 final fraction two back. Centeno is up. Win (1), Saver Exactas 4,9,10/1 and Trifectas 1/6,8,7/4,9,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Misleader (3) has enough early speed to get free here. Gets the nod in 2nd try at rock bottom level after just missing in last. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,6,7/3 and Trifectas 3,6/2,7,9/2,3,6,7,9

8th – Contenders Only (A) – Go to the Sun (3) goes for Jim Gulick and 9 of his 10 winners in L3T were first three off layoff types. HVG was ITM four times Tuesday and Wednesday. Later Gater (8) goes for Ziadie and he wins 46% (69%ITM) in first three off-the-claim and wins 25% on the grass. RoHo has been winning at a 25% clip for the last ten days. Fizzy Pop (10) has had the following final fractions in last four on the grass: 11.63, 11.72,11.46, 11.79. Goes back to the grass today for bomb maker Bernell Rhone. Watch out! Exacta Box 3,8,10 and Trifectas 3,8,10/2,4,7,9/3,8,10

9th – Contenders Only (D) – Premier Roma (4) has three seconds in three tries. Maybe switch to Centeno can make the difference to get her home first. Proctor has firster Omega Cat (7) and he won 30% (50%ITM) with FTSs in L2T. Trix in the City (8) had 2nd best fig in last and red hot Cruz has the return call for veteran trainer Linda Rice. Sky Ride (11) goes for Zwiesler and he won 44% (56%ITM) with 2TSs in L2T. Debut was won with an 81 (today’s par is 72) and Sky Rides effort in that one was better than it appears. Exacta Box 4,7,8 and Trifecta Box 4,7,8,11

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Cenzontle (8) had 11.52 final fraction in last at same class and distance for Ziadie. Almost all of Ziadie’s winners are first three off the layoff types. Cenzontle was supposed to win last and just missed. Gets another chance here. Win (8), Saver Exactas 2,5/8 and Trifectas 2,5,8/3,4,7/2,5,8

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Rockon Rockoff (2) was the beaten favorite in last and gets another chance while shortening up at this rock bottom level. Taxicab (5) last raced on the same day as Rockon Rockoff and Taxicab finished with a better fig than that one. McCarthy switches to hot apprentice Mike Straight. My Heart Skips (6) has %E that is in the zone for the Sprint-to-Route and adds Centeno and that puts my antenna up. Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,4,7/2,5,6

12th – Contenders Only (C) – Sunapee (9) shortens up and drops down for Cataldi after finishing very close to par in first two. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,2,5/9 and 9/4,7,10/1,2,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/08/09

2009-04-07T16:42:00.005-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $36 trifecta returned $697.80,
My 4th race $2 saver exacta returned $15.60, and
I had the winner of the 9th, Hot Rod Tutt, $4.00

So it goes...

There are only 13 more race days of free selections before The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper becomes a subscription only site. Avoid the annual subscription price increase (to $99 after May 3rd) and subscribe today for $25.

Wednesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st - Contenders Only (C) – 5YO season was best of career for Train to Glory (4) and she is 3-3 ITM at this $5000 level. Meredith (7) is a 4YO with a clean record that has been heavily backed in last two. Both are sub-par runners. Robyn’s Maid (3) had an excellent work on 3/8, then was no factor three weeks later. Stretches out and comes back fast for Dickau, who we have to assume is well intended here. Sweetsouthernfilla’s (5) figs have been decent and she returns to the route where she stole one in January. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,5,7/4 and Trifectas 3,5,7/3,5,7/4

2nd – Contenders Only (B) – Demagoguery (6) is a horse for the course that is 4-4 ITM this season. Had best fig in the field two back. Bennett wins 25% (75% ITM) with No Change types. Gonna Blow drops for bomb maker Bernard Bramante, but Gonna Blow hasn’t popped in a sprint since maiden win in 2005. Win (6), Saver Exactas 5,7,8/6 and Trifectas 6/3,4/5,7,8

3rd – Contenders Only (C) – Ells Got Even (11) raced at par in last for Morales, who is 2-5 with maiden claimers this season. Centeno has the return call. Win (11) and Saver Exactas 3,6,8,9/11

4th – A soft wager – Quiet Protest (8) is a daughter of #4 2009 Leading Turf Sire, Kingmambo and the granddaughter of #3 2009 Leading Turf Broodmare Sire, Sadler’s Wells. Goes for Clement/Centeno team that has been tearing it up this season. Was close to par and heavily backed in game debut. A trip to the winner’s circle is expected today. Win (8), Saver Exactas 5,9,10/8

5th – Contenders Only (C) – EFF Scherr (12) figs have improved in each of last four. Is 5-5 ITM at the Downs. Cibelli wins 26% (56% ITM) on the stretchout. Mothers Eyes (9) tries rock bottom for the second time and figs have been satisfactory. Gets another chance here. Win (12), Saver Exacta 9/12 and Trifectas 9,12/3,6,10/9,12

6th – Contenders Only (C) – Entice (1) had best final fraction in maiden win two back. Clement is 17-28 win or place and Centeno is 12-19 with Clement, including seven wins. Saldanha (2) goes for red hot K’OC who is 8-21 in last two weeks. Shortens up after facing tougher 25 days ago. RoHo is 5-10 in last two weeks. However, KO’C wins only 9% with shippers. Ness has Muddy Gator (8) but 4% turf rider HVG discourages a play here. Win (1) Saver Exacta 2/1 and Trifectas 1,2/5,7/1,2,5,7

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Sharadhara was close to par in all three starts, returns from respectable grass effort and shortens up today, and Turf-to-Dirt + Route-to-Sprint angle works for Granitz. Nomudondehere (8) goes for Proctor who wins 19% (58%ITM) on the dropdown. Winless Diaz discourages play on the Criollo firster despite some solid works. Win (7), Saver Exacta 8/7 and Trifectas 7,8/2,7,8/1,6,10

8th – Contenders Only (B) – Wild Brat (8) goes for Cibelli who wins 18% (45%ITM) with 2L1-3’s and 26% (56%ITM) with Stretchouts. Figures to improve. Megabuck (10) has had three solid efforts and will be under Centeno again today. Chobe (11) goes for Ness and he was 100% ITM with Rightback + Up In Class + Stretchout angle in L2T. Exacta Box 8,10,11 and Trifectas 8,10,11/5,6/8,10,11

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Hero’s Image (4) made big move in par effort for maiden win. Bullet work 9 days ago was 2 clicks above par for 5F bullets. Looks like he’s ready for another winning effort for 54% ITM trainer Begley. Jamie Lopez has the call. Rare Ransom (7) had sub-12 final fraction in last and that was into a fast pace but Bernal is winless on the grass and that’s not encouraging. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,3,10/4 and Trifectas 4/7/1,3,5,8,10

10th – Contenders Only (B) – Gentlemen’s Club (5) won on the layoff last season and drops to the softer N1Y condition today for Guciardo. Bailey’s Dynasty (10) goes for Pittman and he had 5 fastback winners L2T. Goes (11) goes for O’Connor and he wins 24% with Claimers and had two best figs in the field two and three back. Exacta Box 5,10,11 and Trifectas 5,10,11/1,3,4,8/5,10,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/07/09

2009-04-05T16:39:00.007-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $2 saver exacta returned $32.80,
I had the winner of the 3rd, Master Speak, $4.40,
My 3rd race $24 trifecta returned $357.20,
My 6th race $2 saver exacta returned $32.40, and
My 8th race $8 exacta key box returned $31.20,

So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

Today's card is arguably the worst of the season, so a little restraint is in order.

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Western Flight (6) drops to rock bottom after staying close to the fast early pace two back in a race that went in 74 (today’s par is 52) and then showing speed for a ½ mile on the grass in last. Winblaiseandshow (1) has best figs but he looks like a follower and not a leader. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 1,6/4,7,8,9/1,6

2nd – Contenders Only (D) – Burning Belle (3) had best figs in last two after finishing 3rd in both. Dixville (6) raced forwardly in both tries at the route. I’m Jealous (7) wakes up regularly and adds Cruz, who had two winners and a 2nd over the weekend. Exacta Box 3,6,7 and Trifectas 7,9/3,6,11/7,9

3rd – Contenders Only (B) – Gully Hill Road (8) had best fig in last and now has four 2nds in five starts. Goes for Mary Ann Bennett and most of her ITM finishes are in the first three off-the-layoff. Rainbow Glider (2) is ITM half the time and comes off two solid efforts. Frank’s Pride (4) goes for Bruce Alexander who wins 22% (67%ITM) with L4-8’s. This drop looks negative to me, but you never know. Mozart On Hold (5) has %E that is in the zone and effort in last was better than it appears. This drop makes sense. Win (8), Saver Exacta 2,4,5/8 and 4,5,8/1,2,6/4,5,8

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Sneaky Guy (4) returns to 7F where he had an above par effort in January. K’OC has won 7 of last 17 and RoHo 9 of last 40. The team looks very tough here. Intrusive (2) goes for Terry Pompay and her last winner at Tampa was a GP shipper that paid $23.00. Pompay gets Centeno back in the saddle and he was ITM four times with Intrusive in the fall in New Jersey. Win (4), Saver Exacta 2/4 and Trifectas 2,4/3,5,6/2,4

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Cold Brook (5) had big early fractions in last two and Knipe had an L1-3 + S + UC winner in L2T. Slick Jack (8) comes back fast for Clark after showing something early in last. Was close to par earlier in the season at 7F. Clark won 10% (25% ITM) with fastbacks in L3T. Exacta Box 1,5,8 and Trifectas 1,4,6/5,8/1,4,6

6th - Contenders Only (C) – Silver Truth (2) settled for 2nd after gaining late in last and stretches out today. Was well above par two back. RoHo sticks. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4,7/2 and Trifectas 1,9,10/2,4,7/2,4,7.

7th – Contenders Only (B) – My Dream Tomorrow (7) was 3-3 ITM at the Downs as a 3YO, broke maiden at Belmont and now returns to Tampa. Goes for Lynn Scace who won 33% with L4-8 + S types L3T. Last years #2 turf rider, Velez has the call. He has 8 turf winners this season. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,3/7 and Trifectas 7/1,10,11/2,3

8th – Contenders Only (A) – This Is My Game (6) goes for Proctor and he wins 43% with Non-shipping L1-3 + Distance Change types in L2T (no other public handicapper will give you stats like these). Figs are second best to African Angel (1) who goes for Fontana and takes a big drop after posting two above par numbers recently. African Angel was scratched from Stakes last Saturday (because he was not a Registered Florida Bred). Win (1), Saver Exacta 6/1 and Trifectas 1,6/All/1,6

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Hot Rod Tutt (10) lacked room on the far turn and could not reach the leader in the stretch, but held the place by a safe margin in Tampa debut that went to $1.80-1 Been Awhile. Had untouchable final fraction two back at GP. Better trip gets Tutt home first for O’Connell and Centeno. Win (10), Saver Exactas 1,2,3/10 and DD 10/3

10th – Contenders Only (C) – Bear Prayer (3) goes for Ziadie who was 100% ITM with Layoff + Shipper + Dropdown angle L2T. The drop looks negative but you can’t argue with his record. Stay for the Storm (4) takes a drop that makes sense, but Smock wins only 8% with Layoffs and 7% with dropdowns. If we can get a $6 double with the 10/3, I’ll be willing to hedge against Bear Prayer here. Saver Exactas 1,5/3 and Trifectas 1,5/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/05/09

2009-04-04T16:20:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-33 (42%) -$6.60(14-3-6) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-62 (31%) -$12.20 (19-14-7) (65% ITM)

On Saturday:
My soft wager in the 5th, Scolara, finished 2nd.
My prime wager in the 6th, Anythingyouwant, took a bad step and was pulled up on the backstretch.
My soft wager in the 8th, Hypocrite, was out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $12 exacta box returned $12.00,
My 5th race $4 saver exacta returned $26.00,
I had the winner of the 7th, Fearless Eagle, $10.80,
I had the winner of the 10th, Paradise Dancer, $4.40, and
My 12th race $2 saver exacta returned $21.00.

So it goes...

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Fort Knox (4) gave way after setting fast early fractions in last. Had best fig in the field in that one. Cruz remains hot. Fort Knox is 11-12 ITM at the Downs and had 10 win and place efforts last year. Uno Way Calle (5) comes right back off the McCarthy claim. She had two Up In Class winners off-the-claim in L2T. Straight is hot and Uno Way Calle sheds 11lbs. with Straight in the irons. Win (4), Saver Exacta 5/4 and Trifectas 4,5/1,2,3/4,5

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Alkmene (2) comes rightback for Brnjas and she wins 25% rightback. Alkmene has been ITM in 5 of last 6 dirt routes and has a nice clean record. Levy Light (4) comes rightback for K’OC and she is 50% ITM with Up In Class + Shorten Up angle. Carrtune Express (1) graduates from the N3L condition and moves in with the big girls. Doesn’t seem likely despite an above par effort in last. Win (2), Saver Exactas 4/2 and Trifectas 2/All/4

3rd - Contenders Only (C) – Master Speak (5) bid three wide and weakened in first try at the maiden claiming level. Had the best fig in the field in last. Ness/Centeno team has 19 wins this season. Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,6/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,6

4th – Contenders Only (C) – Dixie Pipe (4) has been ITM in 17 of last 23. He was boxed in the turn in last, then made up some ground late. Dale Bennett wins 28% (ITM 68%) on the stretchout. Welcome Back (10) has hit bottom and Ness wins 33% (62% ITM) with 2L1-3s. Gonzalez has the return call. Win (4), Saver Exacta 10/4 and Trifectas 4,10/2,3,7,8/4,10

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Sweetsouthernstar (2) had only above par fig in last (54) and three of last four figs were better than all of these except for Morning Mist (5) who won in debut with a sub-par 44. Morning Mist may not have shown us all her cards in maiden win but odds are against. Win (2), Saver Exacta 5/2 and Trifectas 2,5/6,9/2,5,6,9

6th – Contenders Only (C) – City Way (6) had sub-12 final fraction in debut and adds blinkers today. Mott wins 30% (60% ITM) on the turf at Tampa. Montalvo, a leading turf rider has the call. Clement is 63% Win or Place at the Downs this season and What a Trouper (1) has Centeno in the irons. What a Trouper’s dam has two turf winners. Victoria Oliver and Greg Griffith have FTS winners this season. Win (6), Saver Exacta 9/6 and Trifectas 6/1,7,9,10/1,7,9,10

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Sourpower (2) had three solid efforts while moving up in class before trying the grass in last. Comes back to the dirt and drops to rock bottom. Criollo is usually trying on the drop (44% ITM). Shot Gun Cliff (1) had two good efforts at the route earlier this season and he showed something in last two sprints. Judge Kelly (6) had only three starts on the dirt and drops to rock bottom today. He hasn’t shown himself to be a chronic loser on the dirt so he gets a chance here. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,6/2 and Trifectas 1,2,3/4,6,8/1,2,3

8th – Contenders Only (B) – Couple Whiles (1) had a sub-12 final fraction in last and races at this level for only the second time in a year. Was beaten in last by chalky GP invader Talented Princess. The veteran campaigner still hast it and will have something left for a big late run. Glen Wilding (2) goes for Delacour and she is second only to Clement in turf wins this year. Centeno has ridden 5 of her 10 winners. Gator’s Tracks (8) had above par figs in last four and Handy had a turf winner with Velez in the irons last season. Exacta Key Box 1/2,8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/3,7/1,2,8

9th – Contenders Only (D) – Ocala Girl (2) had best figs in last two and drops for Navarro. HVG sticks. Straight Lady Luck (3) wakes up on the drop and adds Centeno. Little Freebie (5) drops to the bottom after showing something as a 4YO, but Anderson has no long layoff wins and the drop to rock bottom does not inspire confidence. Win (2), Saver Exactas 3,5/2 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,6,10/2,3

10th – Contenders Only (B) – Hurricane Tiger (4) is 4-4 ITM on the grass this year. Griffith has seven turf winners this year. Montalvo has ridden 21-25 of Griffiths winners. Truly Amazing (7) had best final fraction in last and was satisfactory in both tries on the grass. Win (4), Saver Exacta 7/4 and DD 4/3

11th – Contenders Only (B) – Ness does his usual magic with Advice to Sinners (3) here. After being in the money in last four, Ness has the Layoff and Route-to-Sprint angles going and he wins 35% with L1-3s and 50% with Route-to-Sprints. Win (3), Saver Exactas 7,12/3 and Trifectas 3/8,9/7,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/04/09

2009-04-03T17:31:00.006-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)

On Friday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 4th, Fire Ridge, $4.00, and
My 11th race $12 exacta box returned $27.00
Four of my contenders only plays scratched.
An off track, an off day.

So it goes...

Saturday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Free Light (7) has the best fig in the field two back and shortens up for Griffith who wins 23% (62% ITM) with shorten ups. Erratic figs say she likes to play follow the leader. We’ll see. Katy’s Cupcake (1) goes for Cheeks and his only winning charge in recent memory (Jaredstemper) won off-the-layoff. Markswayornoway (2) had best fig in last and takes a big drop for Camilo. The three trainers with firsters each have one FTS win in L3T. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2/7 and Trifectas 5,7/1,2/1,2,5,7

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – Suave Angel (2) had sub-24 turn time in above par effort in last. Is 7-8 ITM at Tampa and has red hot Cruz in the irons. Too Much Zip (3) goes for Ness and he wins 61% with L1-3 + Shipper + Dropdown angle. The real story here is Ness’s engagement of Gulfstream’s #8 leading rider Elvis Trujillo who is up for the day to try to make some big money. Win (2), Saver Exacta 3/2 and Trifectas All/2,3/2,3

3rd – Contenders Only (A) – Gallant Lover (2) was beaten by Mr. Flatter and Stormin Yank in last and both went on to win in subsequent races and he finished ahead of Tytus who went on to finish 2nd twice in later races. Max Ahead (4) goes for Ness who wins 38% (70% ITM) with first three off-the-claim. Trujillo is up for Ness again in this race. Saucy’s Got It (7) returns to the dirt where he had two big figs. Smock goes to Centeno. Darn Straight (5) had impressive maiden win, but who did he really beat? Exacta Box 2,4,7 and Trifectas 2,4,7/5/2,4,7

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Max Speed (8) gets the nod on the company she’s been keeping, the benefits of the racing experience she’s had, and her demonstrated superior early pace numbers. Bullet work last week was two clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Win (8), Saver Exactas 2,6,7/8 and Trifectas 7,8/2,6,7,8/2,6,7,8

5th – A Soft wager – Scolara (6) steadied turn and stretch and still had a final fraction of 11.93 in last. In previous race an 11.41. Has a softer spot today. Mott wins 30% (60%) ITM on the grass at the Downs. Centeno is up. Has biggest Bris Prime Power advantage I’ve seen this season. Star Operator (3) goes for Ziadie and he was 100% ITM with Layoff + Sprint to Route and 100% ITM with Dirt-to-Turf angles in L2T. Has excellent works for the past month. Quiet Meadow (8) averaged 11.69 in final three panels in last (albeit from a slow early pace) but in previous race had an 11.84. She’s on the way up. Win (6), Saver Exactas 3,8/6 and Trifectas 6/2,9/3,8

6th – A Prime wager – Anythingyouwant (9) should have an insurmountable lead at the 2nd Call in this one. Turn times are untouchable. Ditto for his figs. Bullet work six days ago was better than 71 others. Trujillo is in the irons for Pinchin. Win (9).Trifectas 9/2,3,6/2,3,6

7th – Contenders Only (C) – Fearless Eagle (6) has had only three races since settling for third in last years Turf Classic and finished close in all three. Had a huge 11.11 final fraction in last. Will be tough to beat if he’s still ready. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,4/6 and Trifectas 1,4,6/3,10,11/1,4,6

8th – A Soft wager – Hypocrite (4) is on a roll winning two stakes in the last two months. Monstrous work on 3/29. Manoel R Cruz, a leader at GP is in town to ride. In last, Right Flanker stalked the pace setter throughout, drifted wide entering, put the leader away in the stretch and just missed after a late run by Stumbling Block. (Stumbling Block went on to win the Turf Marathon with the biggest figure of the year a 111). Win (4), Exacta Key Box 4/1,9 and Trifectas 4/All/1,9

9th – Contenders Only (B) – These three have final fractions in the 11.7 or lower range. Tamborim’s (12) last two were closer to 12. Exacta Box 5,8,11 and Trifectas 5,8,11/10,12/5,8,11

10th – Contenders Only (B) – The classy Paradise Dancer (3) takes a big drop after performing admirably in two stakes. Ziadie is 70% ITM with the Route-to-Sprint angle at Tampa. Leading owner Richard Averill looks to make another score. Win (3), Saver Exactas 6,7/3 and Trifectas 3/4,5,8/6,7

11th – Contenders Only (B) – Gesundheit (2) has won last two and has the leading rider, Daniel Centeno (32% win on the Turf) in the irons. The 1 and 4 look tough but Baron Von Tap has 7% Ramgeet and Therecomesatiger has 0% Alvarado. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,4,6/2 and Trifectas 2,6/1,3,4,5/2,6

12th – Contenders Only (C) – Genuine Heart (3) figures to improve in second start after dueling and weakening in debut. Gerry Bennett wins 20% (60% ITM) with 2TSs. Allen sticks. Mr. Richmond Sir (1) had best fig in the field in last but is hampered by the inside post. Win (3), Saver Exacta 1/3 and Trifectas 1,3/4,8,9,10/1,3 (edited for typo).

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/03/09

2009-04-01T16:58:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 4th race $4 saver exacta returned $17.20,
My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $24.60,
My 10th race $6 saver exacta returned $86.20,
I had the winner of the 11th, R True Lady, $3.20, and
One of my contenders only selections scratched.

So it goes...

I’ve gotten some positive feedback on the contenders only ratings but all agree that the numerical system should be replaced with an alphabetical system. This will reduce confusion by having fewer numbers to look at. So instead of a 1-10 Contenders Only rating there will now be a rating of A, B, C or D (with A getting my strongest support).
Thanks again for the comments.

Friday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (C) – Alton Ferry (9) has a Change-of-Pace going and comes back fast for winless Edlkraut, who has not been shut out in L3T. She had three fastback winners in L3T too! Alton Ferry’s %E is just outside the upper parameter for 8.5F, but is closest to the par %E than any of the other Sprint-to-Route runners entered today. Glory Cat (6) has the best speed figs hands down but can’t seem to get home first. Win (9), Saver Exacta 6/9 and Trifectas 6,9/1,2,5,8/5,6,9

2nd – Contenders Only (C) – McLovin (4). Four of the horses that McLovin faced in Tampa debut have gone on to win this season, including Mr. Flatter who won two. McLovin’s running style is flexible and that will provide him with a tactical advantage here. The layoff raises eyebrows, but Wright does win with layoffs at Tampa. I don’t like Western Night (6) here but on Tuesday and Wednesday, 9 of 11 dirt sprint winners had the lead at the 2nd Call. Nonetheless, Western Night will be pressured and he usually folds under those circumstances. Win (4), Saver Exacta 6/4 and Trifecta Box 2,4,5,6

3rd – Contenders Only (D) – Early Again (12) had best fig in the field in last at 7F and %E is in the zone for 8.18F. Fontana wins with Sprint-to-Route types. Win (12) and Saver Exactas 7,9/12 or Win (7) and Saver Exacta 9/7 (if the 12 is out) and Trifectas 7,9,12/5,8,10/7,9,12

4th – Contenders Only (B) – Fire Ridge (5) has the best fig in the field in last and that was after checking up in deep stretch when the winner drifted into the rail late. Allen’s claim of foul was not allowed (ostensibly because Fire Ridge was weakening and could not have won the race anyway). Until I see a reason to change my opinion, I’m sticking with speed in dirt sprints (see my notes on race 2). Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,9/5 and Trifectas 5/All/4,9

5th – Contenders Only (C) – Privy Seal (10) had best final fraction in last as the beaten favorite, has two seconds this year and has won at today’s distance before. Transit of Venus (6) had great final fractions in last two and Ness wins 61% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle. Cruz is hot, with 8-12 ITM in the last week. Quite the Guy (9) has only one turf win and that was at today’s distance. Is in great form now. I can see the Allen’s plotting a coup here. Lord Louis’ (4) final fractions have been getting softer and softer since the fall and I’m not expecting much from Lord Louis. Win (9) ON OFF TRACK ONLY, Exacta Box 6,9,10 and Saver Exactas 4/6,9,10 and Trifectas 6,9,10/3,4/6,9,10

6th – Contenders Only (B) – Spanish Ambassador (8) gets the nod on front running style in this dirt sprint. Shortens up today. Centeno has the return call. McMullen had two layoff winners L2T. Scace has Penn Atlantic (1a) who had the best fig in the field in maiden win. Scace wins 60% with L1-3 + Rightback + Up In Class angle. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1a,7/8 and Trifectas 1a,8/All/1a,8

7th – TURF ONLY - Contenders Only (A) – Coffee Cake (1) goes for Matz who is 3-9 on the grass and two of Matz’s three grass winners were Layoff + Shipper Types. Matz has a good turf rider in Montalvo. Star Fleet Command (3) is a Dennis Manning charge and he has five winners on the grass this season. Manning does not fool around. Star Fleet Command’s dam has one turf winner. Centeno is 3-5 with Manning this year. Storm Harbor (5) would be a soft wager off NY efforts and fast closing first try at the Downs, but Gonzalez has an unimpressive 5% strike rate in turf events. Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/4,7,8/1,3,5

8th – Contenders Only (C) – Once again I’m going with the early speed, so Algazara (7) gets the nod. Algazara dueled for five furlongs in last before weakening in the stretch. May have it all her own way up front today. Was above par two back in maiden win. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,2,11/7 and Trifectas 2,7,11/1,8/2,7,11

9th – Contenders Only (B) – Castles in the Sky (10) is Ness’s Lookinforthesecret story of 2008-2009. Claimed for $12500 last summer Castle has been on a roll ever since. The guy must have some eye. Goes off 2-5 today and is therefore unplayable but will be fun to watch. The Bennetts have three going. Maybe they’re gonna try to take Castles out of the race, but they’ll have to catch him first. Ruby’s Red Socks (4) has some monstrous figs and Ziadie is 100% ITM going Dirt-to-Turf in L2T. My Best Pal Red (7) has nothing to be ashamed of, is 3-4 ITM on the grass and Bennett is 68% ITM with L1-3s.Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifectas 4,6,7/All/4,6,7 (if Castles is out of the money, you go home a winner for the season with this bet).

10th – Contenders Only (B) – Soy Latino (8) was the only horse in the race that was above par in last by my numbers. Ziadie is 78% ITM with 2L1-3s. Ziadie/RoHo are 40-56 ITM with 21 wins. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,2/8 and Trifectas 1,2,8/1,2,8/4,6,10

11th – Contenders Only (C) – Tytus (10) was checked up for racing room on the turn, lost about 1 ½ lengths in the process and finished strongly, gaining on the winner in the shadow of the wire in last. Had the best fig in the field in that one. Centeno has the return call for Ness. Sprint-to-Route is doable but not at the 3-2 ML. CR Dancing Fox (1) goes for Frances Gogas, a layoff specialist. Four of Gogas’ six winners in L3T were layoffs. Exacta Box 1,6,10 and Trifectas 10/All/1,6

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 04/01/09

2009-03-31T16:23:00.007-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 5th, Wise Frolic, $4.20,
My 7th race $6 saver exacta returned $18.00,
My 8th race $6 saver exacta returned $21.40,
I had the winner of the 9th, SS Royal Endeavor, $4.40, and
My 10th race $12 exacta box returned $22.80 (with the DH for 2nd).

So it goes...

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Wednesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only (4) – Proud Escapade (5) races for the first time at this level since breaking maiden. Centeno takes the call. Was carried to best fig in the field two back. However, McCarthy wins only 10% on the dropdown L3T. Pressing Issue (7) comes back fast for Alexander and he had six fastback winners L3T. Golden Trend (8) won with the Fastback + Shorten Up angle for Simms last year at Tampa. Win (8), Saver Exactas 5,7/8 and Trifectas All/8/5,7

2nd – Contenders Only (5) – A Question of Time (7) comes back to the dirt today where the 4YO had two seconds in last two sprints. Comes back fast for Bennett and adds Centeno. Winter Knight (5) was closest to par in last and RoHo sticks. Win (7), Saver Excata 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/All/5,7

3rd – Contenders Only (8) – A Slick Chic (3) takes a big drop for Ness after posting the best fig in the field two back. Ness wins 34% (66% ITM) with Stretchouts and wins 39% (63% ITM) with Dropdowns. Race two back was best recent fig in the field. Juicy Loots (6) had big fig in Tampa debut and is now 3-4 ITM at the Downs. Hands Wavering (5) has been very reliable and is now 11-16 ITM at Tampa. I expect improvement in 2nd try at this level. Monstrip (4) is an automatic throw out as McBride wins 1% with the First-Off-Claim + Up In Class angle. Exacta Box 3,5,6 and Trifectas 3,5,6/2,4,7/3,5,6

4th – Contenders Only (5) – Dealing In Dreams (10) has %E that is closest to the par %E for the distance and was closing gap in last. Sheer Queenie (8) will have a big lead early but her %E says she will be used up before the stretch run. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3,8/10 and Trifectas 10/All/8

5th – Contenders Only (7) – Hurricane Nikki (1) had her best final fraction of the season in last and that was at today’s distance. Is 5-10 ITM on the Tampa turf. Is overdue for a piece. Fergie’s Folly (5) has a hot trainer (KO’C 7-19 last 14 days) and a hot jockey (RoHo 7-28 last 14 days) and she had best final fraction of all of them in last. Photo Image (6) was right along side Fergie in last, is 16-26 ITM on the grass and goes for Ness. Exacta Box 1,5,6 and Trifectas 1,5,6/8,10,11/1,5,6

6th – Contenders Only (7) – San Bernardo (11). Barbaran is the man with maidens (and N2L’s also). He has had 12 maiden winners in L3T and the vast majority of those won in first three off-the-layoff. Believe it or not, the 6 & 11 were closest to par in last as the winner won that one with a 74. Today’s par is 56. Look for a nice overlay here on both the 6 & 11. Win (11), Saver Exactas 3,6,9/11 and Trifectas 6,11/3,9/3,6,9,11

7th – Contenders Only (8) – Misleader (6) posted the best fig in the field two back at 6F and shortens up today. This is Misleader’s first try at this rock bottom level. Veteran trainer Angel Hyland gets a couple to the winner’s circle every season. Switch to Ronnie Allen Jr. adds value. Who Loves Ya Baby (1) has been racing forwardly and had an above par effort going 5.5F in the fall. Last went in 58, today’s par is 41. Wasiluk had 10 Fastback winners and 5 Shorten Up in L2T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 1,6/4,5,7/1,4,5,6,7

8th – Contenders Only (8) – Perf (2) drops to this level for the first time and Bennett wins 25% (52% ITM) with dropdowns. Perf has the best final fraction in the field on the grass and has the best fig at today’s distance. Bennett engages one of his regular riders and Ronnie Allen Jr. is competent on the grass. Elegant Kindness (6) goes for the red hot team of K’OC and RoHo (5-11 in last two weeks) and virtues are obvious. Pleasure Academy (8) gets another chance after rough trip in last. Megaconfusion (9) has %E that says no and pedigree that isn’t encouraging. Win (2), Saver Exactas 6,8/2 and Trifectas 2,6,8/7,9,11/2,6,8

9th – Contenders Only (6) – Give Me A Smooch (11) raced into an uncomfortably slow pace in last in open $12500 company. Always races above par. Expect dramatic improvement on the dropdown today. Miss Approval (3). The N3L has Miss Approval racing at the lowest level of her career despite the claiming price and she is responding. Had best fig in the field in last. Magical Isis (6) need only to shake free early and she’s gone. Centeno rides her this afternoon. Exacta Box 3,6,11 or Win (3) and Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/4,8/3,4,6,8 if the 11 is out.

10th – Contenders Only (7) – Bucky’s Prayer (4) had one of the only two triple digit figs of the season, a 104 in last. (The other was a 111 by the Ness runner, Stumbling Block, who won the turf marathon last week). I have to respect that. And speaking of respect, the track record holder for today’s race, Charlie Papa (10) can’t be left out. The Laurel invader Libor Lady (7), beat Tampa favorite Bikini Atoll in tough competition and with no Optional Claimers in last. LL is 100% ITM on the grass. Win (4), Saver Exactas 5,7,10/4 and Trifectas 4,7,10/3,5,6/4,7,10

11th – Contenders Only (10) – R True Lady (10) was well above par in last three and sheds 10 lbs. with Straight in the irons. The kid is for real. He beat Centeno in the feature yesterday and had two winners on the day. Win (10), Saver Excata 4,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/31/09

2009-03-29T17:12:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-60 (32%) -$8.20 (19-13-7) (65% ITM)

On Sunday, my soft wager in the 4th, Eleven Eleven, finished 4th by 2 lengths at $7.50-1.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 1st race $4 DD returned $13.00,
My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $11.40,
My 3rd race $20 trifecta returned $34.80,
I had the winner of the 7th, R Vicarious Girl, $3.60,
My 7th race $18 trifecta returned $70.20, and
I had the winner of the 9th, She'll Be Right, $3.40.

So it goes...

One of my regular readers has suggested that I rank my contenders only selections, so beginning today, I’ll be rating them on a scale of 1-10, with 1 representing my weakest support and 10 representing my greatest support. Notwithstanding this change, I will continue to wager on my prime, soft and contenders only selections in a ratio of about 10-3-1 respectively. Contenders Only rankings will be made in parentheses, right after the words Contenders Only.

Tuesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only (3) – Steel Train (7) had best fig in the field in last and Michael Thomas had two stretchout wins in L2T. Sneaky Guy (10) just missed as the 1-2 beaten favorite in last and had best fig in the field at the route in that one. Win (7), Saver Exacta 10/7 and Trifectas 7,10/1,3,8,9/7,10

2nd – Contenders Only (7) – Mean Kisser (2) won two since September and figs in those races are best in the field. Fontana wins 16% with L1-3’s (five times his overall win %) and he has the Distance Change and Jockey Change going. L.I. Iced Tea (4) drops for Mr. Allen and he wins 32% (52% ITM) with dropdowns. L.I. Iced Tea is 8-15 ITM at Tampa now. Summer Party Girl (6) shortens up and drops again after putting up two solid efforts following his first win of the season. Ziadie wins 30% with shorten ups. Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Saver Exactas 2,5,6/4

3rd – Contenders Only (6) – Madonna Blue (1) is 5-5 ITM and goes for Ness who wins 38% on the Shorten Up and 30% going Up In Class. PP1 finally had a winner on Sunday. Centeno is aboard the 2 and he will do everything he can to keep Ronnie Allen Jr riding the 1 wedged between himself and the bad rail. La Tarzana (6) had best fig in the field two back and plunges in class today. Looks very tough here. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 6/1,2,4,5/1,2,4,5

4th - Contenders Only (2) – Lincoln Imp (10) woke up in last and shortens up today, coming back fast for McCooey. Had best fig in the field in last. Cronk is always dangerous with Layoff + Shippers and Toms First Coyote (5) worked fast from the gate on March 12th. Win (10), Saver Exactas 5,8,11/10 and Trifectas 5,10/4,8,11/5,10

5th – Contenders Only (2) – Wise Frolic (1) had best pace figs in the field in debut and in that one the winner finished seven lengths above par. Faces softer today. Win (1), Saver Exactas 2,3,5/1 and Trifectas 1/5,8,12/2,3,5

6th – Contenders Only (5) – Exacta Box 6,8,9 and Trifectas 6,8,9/3,4/6,8,9

7th – Contenders Only (9) – Islandprospectrbob (3) is the solitary above par horse in the field. Was claimed by Mary Ann Bennett in last and she won two in first off-the-claim last year for new owners Winning Stables. Centeno has the return call. Win (3) and Saver Exactas 5,6,7/3

8th – Contenders Only (5) – Beat Your Bluff (7) was close to par in last, an N2L win. Edward Williams won 60% with Rightback + Up In Class angle and won 25% (50% ITM) with Sprint-to-Route angle in L3T. This is the kind of play that makes all the number crunching worthwhile. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,6,8/7 and Trifectas 6,7,8/2,4/6,7,8

9th – Contenders Only (7) – SS Royal Endeavor (7) was close to par in first two, goes for red hot trainer Kathy O’Connell who is 6-14 in last ten days. Switch to RoHo adds value. Win (7), Saver Exactas 2,11/7 and Trifectas 3,6,9/7/2,3,6,9,11

10th - Contenders Only (4) – At Attention (2) gets another chance after chasing and giving way in first off layoff. McBride had nine 2L wins in L3T. Wild Brat (3) goes for Cibelli and she is 57% ITM with L1-3 + Shipper + Up In Class angle. Windowsoftheworld (6) goes for Ziadie and he wins 46% (69% ITM) in first three off-the-claim. Win (2), Exacta Box 2,3,6 and Trifectas 2/All/3,6

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/29/08

2009-03-28T17:45:00.011-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Awesome Style, $5.00,
My 1st race $16 trifecta returned $191.20,
My 6th race $4 saver exacta returned $26.80,
I had the winner of the 11th, Premier Take, $7.40, and
In two races my top contenders only selection scratched.

So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – Sensual Melody (6) is a sub-par plodder that is 4-12 ITM lifetime. She goes for David Wichmann, who has had only one winner at Tampa since Hector was a pup, although that was a Route-to-Sprint too! The 2-1 ML here is absurd. Exacta Wheel All/6 and Saver DD’s 6/4,9 (edited for typos).

2nd – Contenders Only – Stormin Thru (9) goes for Scace and she has the best record with dropdowns, Win 28% and ITM 55%, and raced at today’s distance in last. Torch Me Again (2) goes for McCarthy and she had an MC8 FTS winner in 2007. Catius (8) goes for Lockhart and he’s had four L1-3 + Shipper angle winners in L4T. Win (9), Saver Exactas 4,8/9 and Trifectas 4,8,9/2,7,8/4,8,9

3rd - Contenders Only – R True Lady (1a) will be content to watch her stablemate bang heads with the 2 & 5 from close behind a hot early pace and should have it her way late in the stretch run. Centeno jumps from the 6 to ride Jenna Lu Hu and she had above par fig in last, but McCarthy wins only 9% RB and 10% Up In Class. Win (1a) (but the 1 must go) and Saver Exacta 5/1a, otherwise Trifectas 2,5,6/2,5,6/1,2,6

4th – A soft wager – Eleven Eleven (3) had the best fig in the field in last, after closing with a rush late. The six year old mare’s last win came in October and that was on 8 days rest. Bramante had 11 fastback wins and 6 stretchout wins L3T. Win (3), Saver Exacta 2/3 and Trifectas 2,3/6,7,8,9/2,3

5th – Contenders Only – Win (2), Saver Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,4/1,3,5/1,2,3,4,5

6th – Contenders Only – Henry the K (6) goes for Ness and he wins 80% with the Layoff + Dropdown + Route-to-Sprint angle. Henry was above par in 3-5 lifetime starts. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the call and he is batting .333 with his Ness mounts. Moudy Blues (3) had 2nd best fig in field in last and Pittman brings him back fast and shortens up today. Pittman had five fastback winners L2T. Win (6), Saver Exacta 3/6 and Trifectas 2,5,8/3,6/3,6

7th – Contenders Only – R Vicarious Girl (2) has the best figs in the field in last three starts. Ziadie is batting .363 on the grass this year. RoHo has ridden 19 Ziadie runners to victory. Lydia’s Love (1) is 5-10 ITM on the grass and had a sub-12 final fraction recently. Mike Allen has ridden 2 of Paquette’s 4 winners. Great work five days ago. Frontier Franny (8) and the Lady Waffles (7) have been ITM this season and both have had sub-12 finals. They’re overdue. Win (2), Saver Exactas 1,7,8/2 and Trifectas 2/1,7,8/1,6,7,8

8th - Contenders Only – Wildcane (4) goes for Joe Ambrosia and he had five layoff winners L2T. This season he has three 2nds and a 3rd with layoffs. Wildcane is on the drop after putting up two wins and two 2nds in last four. Is clearly the most well intended among the entries choosing the condition over the Optional Claim. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,2,8/4 and Trifectas 3,6,7,8,10/4/1,2

9th – Contenders Only – She’ll Be Right (5) displayed superior fractions on a yielding turf course in debut. Proctor wins 33% with Sprint-to-Route angle and 18% Dirt-to-Turf. Centeno has the return call. Proctor/Centeno are 13-19 ITM this year. Smart N Lonely (1) also goes for Proctor. Smart N Lonely’s dam has 8 winners from 9 starters and two turf winners. Win (5) and Saver Exactas 1,4,8,10/5

10th – Contenders Only – I Love to Say Yes (8) drops a notch for Fontana, after passing tiring rivals in first recent sprint. Fontana wins 10% (26% ITM) with dropdowns. The 7YO mare sheds 10lbs. today with Straight in the irons. I Love to Say Yes has no sprint wins lifetime but the old girl doesn’t have to beat much here. Soaring Storm (1) has the best figs in last two, but will have to overcome the inside PP. PP1 has not won a race in two weeks. Win (8), Saver Exacta 1/8 and Trifectas 1,8/6,7,9/1,8

11th – Contenders Only – Mi Compadre (3) was close to par in first after long layoff. This is only his 2nd start at this level. Comes back fast for Berry. Yang has the return call. Don’tlaffhe’spaidfor (7) has has improved with each start and also comes back fast. Was beaten favorite in last two and that turns me off. It Is the Way (8) drops today after posting big fig in MC32 on off track. One of Chapman’s two winners L2T was a shipper. Win (3), Saver Exactas 7,8/3 and Trifectas 3,7,8/2,4,5/3,7,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/28/09

2009-03-27T16:55:00.006-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)

On Friday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 2nd, It's Dom's Turn, $3.80,
My 2nd race $48 trifecta returned $83.00,
My 6th race $16 trifecta returned $103.00,
I had the winner of the 7th, Lawrenceberg, $4.60, and
In two races, my top contenders only selections scratched.

So it goes...

Saturday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only - Awesome Style (4) has the best pace figs here and shortens up for K/O’C. RoHo sticks.The O’Connell/Homeister team is 50% ITM this season. Sneaky Irish Lass (12) goes for Jane Cibelli. She wins 24% with MC’s and was 4-7 ITM with L1-3 + S angle in L2T. Max’s Gal Pal (5) will be there if she gets closer to the front early. Win (4), Saver Exactas 5,12/4 and Trifectas 4/1,3,8,9/5,12

2nd – Contenders Only – Fleet Rita (5) was above par in six of last ten and raced forwardly in last two. Early speed has dominated in dirt routes all season. Gerry Bennett is 83% ITM with Fastback + Dropdown angle and wins 33% with the Turf-to-Dirt angle. RoHo jumps from Saintly Miss (2) to ride Osceola Cat Dancer (7). Dangifiknow (6) was scratched by the Association Vet on 3/22. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,3,4,8/5,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Keep Me Straight (11) won last two sprints on dirt surface at CRC. Cataldi had six Layoff winners in L4T. Win (11) Saver Exactas 5,9,10/11 and Trifectas 5,9,10/3,12/11

4th – Contenders Only – Curragh Mon (6) was well above par in last at 6.5F and his %E is ideal for the stretchout. Kelode (2) goes for Phipps who is 5-7 at Tampa this season. Had excuses in last two. Bullet work four days ago. Rum Customer (5) has %E that is close to the lower parameter for 8.18F, could pop on the stretchout. Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,5/6 and Trifectas 2,6/3,5/2,3,5,6

5th – Contenders Only – Transit of Venus (11) has sub-12 final fractions in last two. Ness won 61% with L1-3 + S + Dropdown angle L2T. Win (11), Saver Exactas 4,10/11 and Trifectas 11/2,4,10/2,4,10

6th – Contenders Only – Seniors Pride (10) was above par in second start and is likely to improve for Ziadie who is batting .300 this season. Ziadie/Ramgeet are 66% ITM. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3,8/10

7th – Contenders Only – My Sweet Natalie (5) has impressive record and raced at or above par in last three. Centeno will be in the irons. Tavata (3) returns to 5F on the grass where she has a win, second and a third in last three races. Has been racing with better than these. Tavata broke her maiden with Noguera and she has the call this afternoon. Win (5), Saver Exacta 3/5 and Trifectas 3,5/All/3,5

8th – Contenders Only – Trifecta Box 1,6,9,10

9th – Contenders Only – Onotheregoestokyo (2) has been very consistent this season and he won this 11F marathon last year at Tampa with an above par fig. Otis Ridge (3) has had two good above par efforts recently and has won at 9F. Cryptogram (4) has been deadly all season and may have no trouble going longer. Approved by Dylan (6) finished close to Ono in last and he won a marathon at Monmouth Park last summer. Trifectas 2,3,4/2,3,4,6,9/2,3,4,6,9

10th – Contenders Only – Moonshine Talk (3) goes for the competent Nabu Morales and is on the drop today, adding blinkers and Lasix 1. Moonshine had great work one week ago. Two out of three aint bad. El Supremo (8) goes for Gerry Bennett and he is 83% ITM with Fastback + UC angle L2T. K’OC has Time for Truth but she was 0% Rightback and only 13% Up In Class L2T. Win (8), Saver Exacta 3/8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,9,10/1,3,8,9,10

11th – Contenders Only – Blazing Prize (1) has won at the route in the past and plunges today for Allen who wins 33% of races on the dropdown. Second and third race back were well above par. There is good value here. Premier Take (5) was outgunned in last but finished well above par in that one. Won two previous. Has been ITM in last ten in a row. Certainly fits. Win (5), Saver Exacta 1/5 and Trifectas All/1,5/1,5

12th – Contenders Only – Win (7), Saver Exacta 1/7 and Trifectas 1,7/2,4,5,6/1,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/27/09

2009-03-25T15:34:00.009-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-59 (33%) -$6.20 (19-13-7) (66% ITM)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 9th, Moonshine Mania, settled for 3rd at 7-1.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 1st race $4 saver exacta returned $17.40,
My 3rd race $6 saver exacta returned $23.40,
My 7th race $4 saver exacta returned $19.20, and
My 10th race $4 saver exacta returned $39.20.

So it goes...

Hundereds of followers of The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper throughout the United States, Puerto Rico and four foreign countries can't be wrong. Your $25 annual subscription ensures uninterrupted delivery of my selections and my reports for the next year and includes my top 50 Tampa Bay Trainer Profiles for 2009-2010. In December, the free site is history and the subscription price rises to $99. Avoid the price increase by subscribing now. Also, I'm contemplating a Spanish language version of The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper beginning in December and I'd love to hear from those of you who may be interested in this. Thanks again for your continued support!

Friday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – My Espresso (4) improves with each start. One of Pierpont’s four winners in the last three seasons was a fastback type. Griffith has Reagin’s Pride (1) and he’s great with firsters, but he had none at the MC8 level in the last three seasons. Miller has Bipette (6), but he had no L4-8 winners in the last three seasons. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,8/4 and Trifectas 4/1,2,5/3,8

2nd – Contenders Only – It’s Dom’s Turn’s (2) current form and liking for the Tampa surface have to make him my top choice here. Dom is 7-10 ITM at Tampa, including five wins. Gerry Bennett has Keynes (7) and he has won 3 of 4 with the L4-8 + S + Dropdown angle. Bennett has an incredible 50% ITM record from 140 starters this season. Western Pirate (4) has won or placed in 14 of 27 starts. Nabu Morales is a competent trainer, but I am without intel on his modus operandi. Centeno answers the call. Can’t be left out. Win (2), Saver Exacta 7/2 and Trifectas 2,4,7/2,4,7/2,3,4,6,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Rainbow Glider (2). Behrens tried to steal last one at 24-1 and had to settle for 2nd. Glider has seven seconds to his credit. Shortens up today. Primogeniture (6) has one second in five dirt routes and returns to the dirt today. It’s a mystery why Bates would send Primo south to an ALW race where he went to post at 222-1 and now drop him to rock bottom N2L but I’m concluding that this is not a negative drop. Red hot RoHo (two wins and two seconds on Tuesday) has the call. Win (2), Saver Exacta 6/2 and Trifectas 2,6/3,7,8/2,3,6,7,8

4th – Contenders Only – Ten Ten Ten (10) goes for Moises Yanez and he has only two winners at Tampa in recent memory, both of them Layoff + Shippers. On a scale of 1-10, Ten Ten Ten’s figs are a 10 among today’s starters. Tag You’re It (4) has improved in every start and had excellent work two weeks ago. Can struggling Yang get him home first? Salsbury (12) has the best fig among recent starters. Win (10), Exacta Box 4,10,12 and Trifectas 4,10,12/1,3,7,8/4,10,12

5th – Contenders Only – Sweet Paprika (11) was ITM in 11 of 17 in 2008, with 3 wins, and was up for the place in last two weeks ago, unlike the 7 & 8 who haven’t won a race since 2007. However, Wicked Sweet’s (7) trainer Robert Raymond has won with 7 layoff runners in the last couple of seasons and Centeno is up. Dual Diagnosis (8) finished close behind Sweet Paprika and may be returning to her 3 and 4 year old form. Cincy Girl (9) won at this distance last year at Tampa, but her current form is questionable. Win (11) and Saver Exactas 7,8,9/11 or Exacta Box 7,8,9 (if the 11 is out).

6th – Contenders Only – Lunar Crop (9) was 2nd in second grass start and his workout four days ago was four clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call for Tom Proctor, who has seven grass winners this season. Allen has ridden half of Proctors winners this year. Awesome Charlie (1) and Sharpness (5) were both banged around after the start in last and Charlie was checked for room on the clubhouse turn. Their final fractions were acceptable. Both improve with better trips today. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,5/9 and Trifectas 1,9/5,8,13/1,5,9

7th – Contenders Only – Lawrenceville (7) had untouchable fractions in last and his turn time was faster than his 1st Call time. If he can repeat that effort, there would have to be a big surprise for an up set to occur. It looks like the rest of the early speed will be chasing before tiring. Win (7) and Saver Exactas 4,5,8/7

8th – Contenders Only – Very Capo (4) has produced in whatever way Ness has asked and is in great form now, coming off two above par wins. Crackenthorpe (6) has satisfactory figs and his final fractions indicate reliability and a strong late run here. He is the only one of my top three whose last was at today’s distance. Champagne Brunch (12) had best final fraction in last and Centeno jumps off Very Capo. Will be very tough if he gets in. Exacta Box 4,6,12 and Trifectas 4,6,12/2,5,8,10/4,6,12

9th – Contenders Only – This Is My Game (9) and Heez for Doc (5) both have a win and a second in five starts on the dirt, but Proctor’s charge gets the nod on his 33% win (50% ITM) record with Sprint-to-Route angle. Flashy Wonder (1) had big fig in last and is ITM in 6-10 at the Downs, however Downing has no Sprint-to-Route wins in the last three seasons at Tampa. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,3/9 and Trifectas 1,3,9/4,5,7/1,3,9

10th – Contenders Only – Tahoe Warrior (4) goes for Linda Rice who had four Layoff + Shipper winners in the last four seasons at Tampa, quite an accomplishment given the small number of starters she has here. Tahoe Warrior drops and Centeno will be in the irons. Not Acclaim (10) had monstrous 1st call fractions in last two and that was on turf course with -7 variant both days. Clocker needs to check his stopwatch after Xep for Elmer (2) went four furlongs a full second above par for bullet works at 4F twelve days ago. Win (10), Saver Exacta 4/10 and Trifecta Box 2,4,8,10

11th – Contenders Only – Rockon Rockoff (5) has best figs in the field in last two and drops a notch here. Gilded Key (8) won last and comes back fast for McCooey and he had three fastback winners in last two seasons. He also had two wins on the stretchout. Back figs say he can compete at the route. Kinfolk Moonshine (1) was up for second after going Sprint-to-Route earlier this season. Is 47% ITM at Tampa. Exacta Box 1,5,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/25/09

2009-03-24T16:15:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-58 (33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

I had the winner of the 1st, Meganello, $8.60,
My 5th race conditional soft wager was scrapped when Irish Channel went to the post at 9-2 odds, but if you stuck with it, my $6 saver exacta returned $23.40 (I didn't.),
My 6th race $12 exacta box returned $25.80,
I had the winner of the 8th, Between Us, $6.00, and
I had the winner of the 9th, Rock Lobster, $6.00.

So it goes...

Wednesday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com:

1st – Contenders Only – Timetolitethestar (1) was ITM in 3 of 4 routes since December 4th. Dixville (6) drops to rock bottom after trying to steal one at 21-1 two back at the route. Osceola Cat Dancer (12) goes for KO’C and she’s had at least six 2L winners in the last two seasons. The favorite will probably take it, but Pompano Beach Rose (9) was the beaten favorite four times and the beaten second choice four times and on that basis does not deserve your support. Exacta Box 1,6,12 and Saver Exactas 9/1,6,12 and Trifectas 1,6,12/9/1,6,12

2nd – Contenders Only – Lynn Scace brings back Dale’s Token (5) for his third race in 15 days after being well backed in last two. She wins 22% (56%ITM) with fastbacks. There is no doubt in my mind that Dale’s Token is well intended here. Ogacat (9) also comes back fast and is on the dropdown for Stephens. Leading rider Daniel Centeno is aboard Ells Got Even (8) but he is not revered for his ability to win with closers. Win (5), Saver Exacta 9/5 and Trifectas 6,8/5,9/4,5,6,7,8,9

3rd – Contenders Only – Mike’s Classic (9) has not won since opening day 2006, but has three seconds since November 10th. Last was closest to par among these. Ziadie is batting .300 but is 0-10 in last ten days. He is overdue now. Gentlemen’s Club (1) goes for Guciardo and three of her last eight wins at Tampa were with L2’s. West Texas (2) was second to Mike’s Classic in last. Stop The Race (5) won four of last 15 starts. Mr. Chocolatte (8) was third to Mike’s Classic in last. Win (9), Saver Exactas 1,2,5,8/9 and Trifectas 1,2,9/1,2,9/5,8

4th – Contenders Only – Juanchon Juanchon (4) chased and faded in last, but the par 60 race went in 79. The competition is much softer today and you’ll find some real value here. The Redfox (6). Centeno jumps from the 10 to ride The Redfox (6) and I’m not sure why. Could be the foxe’s 5-14 ITM record. Brave Troy (10) had best fig among these in last and goes for Earl Begley, who has won 28% in sprints this season. Exacta Box 4,6,10 and Trifectas 4,6,10/1,5,8/4,6,10

5th – Contenders Only – Fagedaboutitsal (6) was beaten by lightly raced and heavily backed Matz runner Star Emerald in last. Seven race winner Frontier Franny was second. Looks like she’ll have the front all to herself again. Excellent work one week ago was two clicks above par for bullet works at 5F. Carvajal had three layoff winners in last two seasons at Tampa. Win (6), Saver Exactas 1,10/6 and Trifectas 1,6,10/4,7/1,4,6,7,10

6th – Contenders Only – Many Mesas (1) surprised in last after receiving strong backing at the windows and may surprise again today. Many Mesas is 5-7 ITM now at Tampa and Girten-Drake brings the 4YO gelding back fast. Heaven’s Reward (7) has the two best figs in the field in last two and drops for Jim Chapman, but he went to leading rider Daniel Centeno to ride both of his winners in the last two seasons at Tampa. The absence of a leader in the irons is conspicuous and suspicious. Thalian Hall (9) has been sub-par but very reliable all season and Proctor wins 33% with No Change angle. Exacta Box 1,7,9 and Trifectas 1,7,9/2,3,6/1,7,9

7th – Contenders Only – Gold Jolie (3) had best figs in the field in two of last three by my speed numbers and picks up Centeno today. There is virtually no change in class between the C5N2Y and C6250 classes. “Primum non nocere” is the operative latin phrase here. If the new barn does no harm, Gold Jolie should be right there. Win (3), Saver Exactas 2,4/3 and Trifectas 2,3,4/1,6,7/2,3,4

8th – Contenders Only – Premier Roma (9). A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Was second in both starts and debut was above par. Proctor and Zwiesler are 50% and 62% ITM respectively with firsters. Whiff (3) goes for Delacour but she has no FTS winners in the last three seasons. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,8/9 and Trifectas 9/4,5,6/2,8

9th – A soft wager – Moonshine Mania (4) was checked sharply for racing room at the top of the backstretch losing about two lengths, then got back into contention, then had to swing to the outside from the rail around three runners in deep stretch and finished with a late rush in last. (Grunder botched the call, if you decide to watch it). MM was supposed to win at 45-1 and the bad trip kept the coup from being executed. We are on to you now Mr. Wilson. Jockey switch to Willie Martinez may reflect Wilson’s angst with regular rider Ortiz or may just be heads up work by Martinez and his agent. MM’s fig was good enough to beat these. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,7/4 and Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/1,4,6,7,8

10th – Contenders Only – Beautiful Insight (9) goes for George Heath who had three longshot winners in the last few weeks of the 2007 season. Was trying to steal one two back at 6-1 but just missed. Then Beautiful Insight just missed again after wide trip under Martinez. Sheds 10lbs. in switch to Straight. Raced above par in last two and that’s more than the rest of these plodders can say for themselves. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,8/9 and Trifectas 8,9/2,3,10,11/2,8,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/24/09

2009-03-22T16:50:00.004-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-58 (33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 1st race $4 saver exacta returned $9.60,
I had the winner of the 2nd, Bagatelle Terrace, $2.80,
I had the winner of the 7th, On Tour, $2.60 (DH),
My 7th race $36 trifecta wager returned $177.60,
My 10th race $8 exacta key box returned $18.00, and
My 10th race $24 trifecta returned $34.20.

So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :

1st – Contenders Only – Meganello (10) has the best fig in last and her pace numbers are reliable. Grilledham’ncheese (1) dueled and faded in last, switch to Straight sheds 12 lbs. Personal Cat (4) goes for Kathy Guciardo. Three of her ten winners in the last three seasons were layoffs (including a five month layoff). Win (10), Saver Exacta 1,4/10 and Trifectas 1,4,10/5,7/1,4,10

2nd – Contenders Only – Creative Love (5). Three of last four were good enough to put these away. Mr. Allen wins 24% on the fastback. The Allen team is 33% ITM this season. Sunset Escapade (7) has the second best figs recently. Fontana shortens up and switches jockeys and that usually means he’ll be trying. Chobe (2). Anytime you can exploit a Ness weakness, you must. He wins only 22% with shippers and he’s the second choice in the ML. It’s so infrequently that you can bet against him with any confidence and when you can, you have to make the most of it. Win (5), Saver Exacta 7/5 and Trifectas 5,7/2,3,8/5,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Dixie Pipe (4). I raved about him in last (Search Blog for Dixie Pipe) and I’m sticking with him. Dixie Pipe had to settle for 3rd , but had the best fig in the field in last. Adds riding champion Daniel Centeno. Bennett wins 33% with Route-to-Sprints. However, Dixie Pipe has no sprint wins in his 45 race career. Sam’s Delight (7) returns to a sprint where his figs say he’s a contender and Sam is in condition now. Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,6,7/4,6,7/2,5,8

4th – Contenders Only – Trifectas 1,5/1,5,7/1,5,7 and Saver Trifectas 1,5/1,5,7/2,3 I don’t see any other logical outcome here. Wagers should be made at a ratio of about 5 to 2.

5th – A soft wager (but only if Irish Channel goes to the post at <3-1) – In first grass race at two turns, Irish Channel (7) had an eye-popping final fraction for the last five furlongs of 11.84. Delacour is 21% with turf runners this year and was 50% ITM in last two seasons at Tampa. If the $170K Long Bay Stables runner is ready she wins. Prytrania (8) goes for Proctor who was 2-3 with the Layoff + 2TT angle in the last two seasons at the Downs. Mac Speed (9) has second best final fractions and was closing gap at *1Mile in last. O’Connell/Velez are 50% ITM this year. Win (7), Saver Exactas 3,8,9/7 and Trifectas 7,8,9/2,3,6/7,8,9

6th – Contenders Only - Res ipsa loquitur (the PP’s speak for themselves). Exacta Box 3,7,12 and Trifectas 3,7,12/2,8,9/3,7,12

7th – Contenders Only – Wynn’s Wild Flower (9) had best dirt fig in the field in last and finished second in last two. Excellent work on March 18th adds value. Jolley/Allen are 55% ITM. Seattle Tapdance (10) has superior turf figs and Delacour had one winner this year that disappointed on the grass and then won a dirt sprint, but that happened only once in the last three seasons. Win (9), Saver Exactas 7,10/9 and Trifectas 1,3,8/9/7,10

8th – Contenders Only – Between Us (2) returns to 5F where she graduated in MC25 company. Drops from the $16,000 level today. Dale Bennett wins 40% with Shorten Ups and 33% with Dropdowns. Silver Truth (7) was four lengths above par in last at 6F and shortens up today. Pogo Stick (12) has two wins and two seconds in six starts and finished 2nd after a six month layoff in 2007. Raymond has one other winner after a six month layoff. Straight comes in at 108 lbs. Is Pogo Stick ready? Win (2), Saver Exactas 7,12/2 or 4,7/2 (if 12 is out) and Trifectas 2,7,12/3,4,9,10/2,7,12 or 2,4,7/3,9,10/2,4,7 (if 12 is out).

9th – Contenders Only – Scruples In (4) was going well until the final 1/8th of a mile in last against ALW NC company. Previous effort at 5F in the same company was also satisfactory. Drops down and shortens up today. Rock Lobster (5) has only sub-12 final fraction in the field, and Griffith won 60% with Layoff + Shipper + Shorten Up angle in last two seasons. Constitution River (6) is 5-5 ITM at Tampa and is Ambrosia’s star pupil. Wouldn’t be wasted going longer unless Ambrosia is convinced he can win. Go to the Sun (8) was 2-5 in 2008 and Gulick won 50% with Dirt-to-Turf angle in last two seasons at the Downs. Win (5), Saver Exactas 4,6,8/5 and Trifectas 4,6,8/4,6,8/5

10th – Contenders Only – Leon Noack (1) was close to par in last three. Scott, who is having a good season, goes to Straight to try to get it done. 10 lbs. off can’t hurt. Victory Drink (10) was above par in 5 of 7 career starts. McMullen wins 21% with MC’s and he had three layoff winners in the last two seasons at Tampa. Win (1), Saver Exacta 10/1 and Trifectas 1,10/3,5,8,9/1,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/22/09

2009-03-21T16:01:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-58 (33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $2 saver exacta returned $18.00,
My 5th race $4 saver exacta returned $10.60,
My 6th race $12 exacta box returned $25.60,
I had the winner of the 7th, High On Candy, $5.00,
My 9th race $4 exacta box returned $34.20,
My 10th race $12 exacta key box returned $44.60, and
I had the winner of the 11th, Rhythm and Hues, $5.80

A great winning day and long overdue. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only – Sunsational (5) returns to sprint and drops a notch this afternoon. Exposito had an off-the-claim winner last year and that one was a Sprint-to-Route-to-Sprint + Fastback just like Sunsational. Looks like an M.O. to me. Win (5) and Saver Exactas 2,3/5 and DD 5/8

2nd – Contenders Only – Bagatelle Terrace (8) goes for Ambrosia and his runners are always well intended. Was well above par in last. Ambrosia won 63% with L1-3’s in the last two seasons. PID’s 2008 riding champion Dale V. Beckner has the call aboard Fly My Butterfly (6). The filly has been on vacation since September and was beaten favorite in last. This one has my antenna up. Win (8), Saver Exacta 6/8 and Trifectas 6,8/All/6,8

3rd – Contenders Only – Hello From Heaven (6) was at or above par in last two routes. Races at this level for the first time. Has 9 seconds to his credit and his earnings blow these away. Win (6) and Exacta Key Box 6/4,7 and Trifectas 6,7/1,2,8/4,6,7

4th - Contenders Only – Dangifiknow (8) was in contention after 7F in two of last three at the route. The bomb maker Ron Behrens goes Route-to-Sprint today where he won 11% in last two seasons (nearly twice his overall win %). Today’s par is 52, and none of the plodders that went in the 1st on March 6th could reach even 30. Exacta Key Box 8/6,7,12 and Trifectas 8/1,2,4/6,7,12

5th – Contenders Only – Jackie B Good (6) was closest to par in last and comes back fast for Michael Thomas, but he wins only 4% with fastback types. Shortens up 330 feet today. Switches to #7 leading rider Andrew Ramgeet. Pretty Fraulein (5) comes back fast after setting the pace in last for Tony Wilson, and he won 40% (60% ITM) with fastbacks in the last two seasons at the Downs. The presser, Valentine’s Halo (7) may benefit from the speed duel that’s sure to take place between the 3,5 & 6. Exacta Box 5,6,7

6th – Contenders Only – Bold Abbott (12) was 3rd against better company than this at GP in last and with sub-12 final fraction. Motion is winless on the grass at this meeting, but won 19% (ITM 62%) in previous two. El Poppie (9) goes for Lonnie Arterburn after the long layoff. Arterburn is having a great meeting batting .280. Three of Arterburn’s five winners in the previous three seasons were L1-3’s. El Poppies 6F work, one week ago, was two clicks behind that of ALW/OC and seven race winner Diplomatic Charm. Trippin Up (4) had a sub-12 final fraction in last and finished up close after N2L win in previous race. Exacta Key Box 12/1,4,9 or Exacta Box 1,4,9 (if 12 does not draw in) and Trifectas 12/1,5,6,7,8/4,9 or 4,9/1,5,6,7,8/4,9

7th – Contenders Only – On Tour (2) finished up close in last two and was above par two back. Four of Hickey’s seven winners in the last two seasons were maidens. Willie Martinez has a 16% strike rate in dirt sprints. Genuine Heart’s (5) work on March 5th was one click above par for bullets from the gate at four panels. Bennett/Allen team is 50% ITM this season. Jewel Heist (9) goes for Scace and she is always a threat with firsters. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,9/2 and Trifectas 2,5,9/4,6,7/2,5,9

8th – Contenders Only – Full Tilt Boogie (2) goes for red hot Bagley, who is 3-5 in the last two weeks. Vail wins 14% (33% ITM) on the grass. Smooth Glitter’s (3) dam has 4 winners from 4 starters, including a turf winner. Williams won 25% on the grass in last two seasons. Itch (8) goes for Lerman who is winless on the grass this season but won 18% of his turf starts in the last two. Stellar Ambition (10) had the second best fig in the field in last start on the grass and returns to the grass on the dropdown for Barbaran. Gato Paso (7) has %E very close to the upper limit for today’s race and Cibelli wins only 6% Sprint-to-Route and 7% Dirt-to-Turf. Does not look like a winner. Trifecta Box 2,3,8,10

9th – Contenders Only – Megawattie (1) beat Salty Wave two back at GP and is now 4-9 in 08-09 and 50% ITM lifetime on the turf. Dale Bennett wins almost 40% with L1-3 + S angle. Asgoodasshelooks (4) is. Takes a drop after racing above par in last two. Goes for last year’s #2 leading trainer on the grass, Kathleen O’Connell, and has RoHo in the irons. Salty Wave (5) was beaten by the heavily backed My Kim in last. Gets another chance here. Exacta Key Box 4/1,5 and Trifectas 3,4/1,5/1,3,4,5

10th - Contenders Only – Demagoguery (11) won with an above par 76 in last and Bennett wins 35% with Rightbacks. Is 5-12 now at Tampa. Salty Trick (5) has raced well in last three at 7F and is 4-5 ITM at Tam now. Had excellent work one week ago. Win (11) Saver Exacta 5/11 and Trifectas 5,11/3,7,9,10/5,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/21/09

2009-03-20T17:12:00.006-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....19-58(33%) -$4.20 (19-13-6) (66% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager in the 5th, Flying Palm, won and paid $9.60.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $36 trifecta returned $127.80,
I had the winner of the 2nd, Sister Gal, $6.00, and
My 5th race $48 trifecta returned $68.40

I had two scratched wagers today in the 9th & 10th. So it goes...

Saturday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – MVP Grand (4) has %E that is right in the zone for 8.18F and Griffith was 3-4 ITM with Sprint-to-Route types in last two seasons. SP Wolf (2) had best fig in the field in last and it was above par too. Wasiluk goes back to RoHo, who won with SP Wolf in the N2L condition at Delaware last May. Win (4), Saver Exacta 2/4 and Trifectas 2,4/3,5,7,8,9/2,4

2nd - Contenders Only – Our Stormy Girl (4) comes back in 14 days, shortens up and Feliciano switches to #5 leading rider to try to bring her home in front. Feliciano and Gonzalez both have great records with front runners. Our Stormy Girl may have a 3-4 length lead at the 1st Call. Win (4), Saver Exactas 3,5/4

3rd – Contenders Only – A Curious Lady (2) just missed and with a par fig in ALWN1X (par 76) two back. Today’s par is 64. Cibelli won 40% with Dropdown + Stretchout types in the last two seasons at Tampa. Cibelli goes to #2 leading rider, Rosemary Homeister Jr. today. Appella’s Trip (3) has 2 wins and 9 seconds, all at the $16000 level or higher. Was eased well before the wire in last after securing the place. Centeno sticks. Mis Max (6) goes for Smock, who is 44% ITM with Route-to-Sprints in last two seasons at the Downs. Win (3), Saver Exacta 2/3 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,6,7/2,3,6

4th – Contenders Only – Princess BG (1) had only one race at the $5000 level in her career and she was ridden out in that one. Ziadie wins 30% with Dropdown + Shorten Up angle. Ziadie/RoHo team are 35-49 ITM. Sister Suave (10) has raced well for the past 15 months and is now 8-12 win or place at Tampa. Won last with an above par fig. Poxon does his best work with 30 day layoffs. Win (1), Saver Exacta 10/1 and Trifectas 1,10/2,7,12/1,2,7,10,12

5th – Contenders Only – Caravel (7) was above par in last two and has final fractions that are untouchable among these. Griffith has six turf winners this season. Montalvo rode 18 of Griffiths 22 winners and Caravel is 3-3 ITM on the Tampa turf. Win (7), Saver Exactas 4,5/7 and Trifectas 7/1,8,10/4,5 and DD 7/8

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,8,10 and Trifectas 5,10/4,6/5,8,10

7th – Contenders Only – High On Candy (4) has above par 1st call fractions and above par final fractions in both starts on the grass. Cibelli/Velez are 9-17 ITM. Cibelli has four turf winners this season. Flying the Flag (5). Clement has won or placed in 66% of his starts this season, including seven turf winners. Centeno is 7-15 with Clement’s runners. Urban Legend (6) had the best final fraction in the field in debut, but the early going was slow. Win (4), Saver Exactas 5,6/4 and Trifectas 4,5,6/2,8,9/4,5,6

8th - Contenders Only – Just for Kicks (5) comes right back for Ness, who wins 38% rightback and 34% on the stretchout. Stalked the leader and a fast 1st Call fraction in last. Should be calling the shots today. Centeno wins 38% with Ness runners. Sister Nan (2) was a close 2nd to Just for Kicks in last, but Allen went to work on Sister Nan in the turn and Centeno didn’t ask for anything until the 1/8th pole. Gerry Bennett wins only 15% on the stretchout. Hello Miss Lady (6) takes a drop and returns to the dirt. Dodgen is 3-11 with Turf-to-Dirt angle. Win (5), Saver Exactas 2,6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/2,4,7,8/5,6

9th – Contenders Only – Native Miz (2) takes a drop off a big effort in last at FG. Proctor wins 28% with L1-3 + Shipper angle. Centeno has the call. Nick's Girl (3) was covered up entering and her stretch run was interrupted by traffic problems but she was rolling late in last. Improves with better trip today. Exacta Box 2,3 and Saver Exacta Key Box 2/6,8 and Trifectas 2/5,9/3,5,6,8,9 (edited).

10th – Contenders Only – Expect Validity (2) comes out of very tough race with Roboponi and Rahoo and won previous at the $8000 level with above par fig. Before that he went in a 7F race with a final time of 123.88 against starter company. Is 14-18 ITM at Tampa, including 5 wins. The 5,7,9 all raced together on March 7th and Jet Prop (another runner in that event) won on St. Patty’s Day in C5 N2Y company. Win (2), Exacta Key Box 2/5,7,9 and Trifectas 2/6,8/5,7,9

11th – Contenders Only – Rhythm and Hues (4) was above par in last and shortens up for O’Connell who wins 18% with shorten ups. Roho sticks, choosing R&H over Stack Tour. Bane (6) has %E that’s in the zone for 8.18F. Was close to par in last. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,6/4 and Trifectas 4/7,8,9/1,6

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/20/09

2009-03-18T17:55:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....18-57(32%) -$11.80 (18-13-6) (65% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 3rd race $12 trifecta returned $94.60,
My 4th race $12 exacta box returned $33.60,
My 7th race $12 trifecta returned $221.80, and
I had the winner of the 9th, Hit Another Gear, $21.00 So it goes...

Friday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :

1st – Contenders Only – Aticifier (1) has demonstrated that he can be in contention in the late going and has the best fig in the field in last. Braciole (5) has the front all to himself again today and takes a big drop. Griffith/Montalvo are 54% ITM. Sierra Maestra (9) is a firster from the Luhr barn and she had a FTS winner in MC12500 in 2007.Gonzalez rode that one too! Owner/Breeder Stella Thayer will have a life-size monument next to the toteboard someday. Exacta Box 1,5,9 and Trifectas 1,5,9/6,7,8/1,5,9

2nd – Contenders Only - Sister Gal (10) is 7-10 ITM, including 2-3 ITM in Tampa dirt sprints. Made a middle move and outfinished rest in last. Schultz leaves 1-20 Ernesto Oro for #10 leading rider Willie Martinez. Banker’s Mistress (6) finished gamely with best fig in field and was close to par in last at 50-1. If she can match that effort today, she could finally graduate and put a meal on Winless Walter’s table (that is unless he cashed on the wake up in last). Win (10), Saver Exactas 6,11/10 and Trifectas 6,10/4,5,9,11/6,10,11

3rd – Contenders Only – Very Arrogant (7) stretches out for bomb maker Juan Camilo, who wins 22% (67% ITM) with Sprint-to-Routes at Tampa. Resisted to late in last.. Had best dirt fig in the field at the route earlier this season. Won back to back routes at Tampa last spring, both longshots. Twisting Road (1) takes a big drop for Dale Bennett, who wins 33% with dropdowns. Last three figs are good enough to put these away. I’ve been down on Diligent Won (5) all season and saved a lot of dough in the process. He’s 0-16 last two years and 2-32 lifetime at Tampa. Last performance was sub-par, but he appears to be in best form now. Memo Pad’s (10) %E says he is not well suited to today’s distance. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,5/7 and Trifectas 1,5,7/1,5,7/8,9,10

4th – Contenders Only – Magical Cure (10) goes for Robert Raymond who won 23% on the stretchout in last two seasons. Switch to #8 leading rider HVG doesn’t hurt. Prince David (11) will set the pace again and just missed in last. Kaelin is 50% ITM with Route-to-Sprint types. Big Cash (4) is a Lynn Scace firster and she wins with FTS’s, but she hasn’t won with a maiden claimer entered for less than $25,000 in the last three seasons. Big Cash does not look like a winner to me. Win (10), Saver Exacta 11/10 and Trifectas 10,11/1,4,8/4,10,11

5th – A soft wager – Flying Palm (6) was forced into the rail in the stretch, was taken up, then recovered to finish satisfactorily in last. Had the best figs in the today’s field in previous two. Races at this level for only the second time in his 29 race career. Comes back fast for Gerry Bennett who wins 24% (70% ITM) with fastbacks. Tytus (2) was a monster last year, winning four of five, but sadly, is no longer the same horse. Has been dropping faster than the stock market. Goes from a par 84 to a par 73 today and Centeno takes the mount, but I’m saving with Tytus and that’s it. Wonderfin (5) and Everblazing (8) have the patented Fontana Distance Change + Jockey Switch going. Watch out. Win (6), Saver Exactas 2,5,8/6 and Trifectas 6,8/2,5,7/2,5,6,7,8

6th – Contenders Only – Pay Zone (1) goes for Griffith who won 60% in last two seasons with Layoff + Shipper + Up In Class types. Somebody thinks highly of Jet Pro (4) who was the beaten favorite in last three. Returns to the dirt today. RoHo sticks. Fundit (8) closed well in debut and the course has been good to S types in recent weeks. Adds L1. Exacta Key Box 4,8/1 and Trifectas 1/3,5,7,9/4,8

7th – Contenders Only – Affirmed Action (2) was well intended but overmatched in very fast paced Tampa Bay. Has been very reliable otherwise and goes for Griffith, who has 6 turf wins this season. His go to rider, Montalvo is back in the irons today. Marquet Cat (4) had big fig in last win. Has no where to go but up. Tony Terrific (6) also had above par fig in last and has the best turf speed at today’s distance. His trainer, Jim Gulick is 0-4 on the grass this year, but won 21% (43% ITM) in last two seasons at Tampa. Exacta Key Box 6/2,4 and Trifectas 6/1,5,8/2,4

8th – Contenders Only – Meridian Hour (1). Maiden win two back on the dirt was best fig in the field. Comes back to the dirt and shortens up today. Mike Allen has ridden 6 of 7 of Arterburn’s winners this season. Tigerglider (4) shortens up and drops down and broke maiden at the distance two back. Win (1) and Saver Exacta 4/1 and Trifectas 1,4/2,5,8/1,4

9th – Contenders Only – Prytania (14) had the best final fraction of all maidens in the 2008-2009 season and that was on a Good surface in debut. Also has the best fig in this field. Proctor won 67% with Layoff + 2TT angle in last two seasons. Win (14), Saver Exactas 6,8/14 and Trifectas 14/2,3,4,10/6,8

10th – Contenders Only – Supply Guy (2) takes a minor drop for Ness and he wins 39% (63% ITM) with dropdowns. Goes both ways and will get going late in this one. Western Night (4) will have the lead, but will be hard used to get it and keep it, with Tricks of Glory (5) (won 10 of last 17) and Regwell (8) (eased up before the wire in last win) both arguing the pace throughout. Exacta Key 2/4,5,8 and Trifectas 4/2/All

11th – Contenders Only – Florida Boy (9) has clean record and figs are competitive enough to beat these. Was boxed in last and still managed to finish up close in last. Camilo had 11 bombs in last two seasons. Vicar In the House (3) was up close at the 2nd Call in last and improved in second start. Takes a minor drop. Sir Swervalot (1) had nothing left at the route two back and I think that whatever is ailing him will keep him from winning at 8.5F. Win (9), Saver Exacta 3/9 and Trifectas 3,9/1,5,10/3,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/18/09

2009-03-17T16:02:00.010-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....18-57(32%) -$11.80 (18-13-6) (65% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 5th race $2 saver exacta returned $12.80,
I had the winner of the 7th, Banker's High Yield, $53.00, and
I had the winner of the 8th, Conchacer, $5.00 So it goes...

Hola y recepcion la primera vez al visitante de Venezuela!
(Hello and welcome to the first time website visitor from Venezuela!)

Wednesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only – Forest Cruiser (6) was close to par in first off layoff. The 5YO dueled to mid-stretch in that one. Win (6) and Saver Exactas 1,5,8/6

2nd - Contenders Only – Invisible Cove (5) was closest to par in last two at the route and last at 7F went evenly. The 5-1 ML is generous here. Howell Road (3). Joe Ambrosia had one FTS in last two seasons and his runners always merit consideration. Has Ronnie Allen Jr. in the irons. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,3,4/5 and Trifectas 3,5/1,4,6,8/3,5

3rd – Contenders Only – Dontlaffhespaidfor (3) shortens up and drops down for Richard Hollett and Allen sticks (leaving No Show Bill (4) behind). Beat Your Bluff was above par in 2008-2009 Tampa debut at today’s distance and had the best fig in today’s field in that one. Also shortens up here. Win (3), Saver Exacta 6/3 and Trifectas 3,6/4,5,7/3,6

4th – Contenders Only – Megabuck (4) was closest to par in last two and shortens up for Caple. Was gunning for it in both. El Supremo (12) steps up and PP12 is always tough to win from, but Centeno chooses El Supremo over Megabuck. Golden Citizen EK (9) wired the field twice in seven starts. Could keep going. Exacta Box 4,9,12

5th – Contenders Only – Count de Baran (5) had the best final fraction in last and goes for Dennis Manning, who is 5-9 on the grass this season at Tampa. Centeno jumps from the (1) to be reunited with Count de Baran. Manning/Centeno team is 4-5 ITM. Foggy Max (3) goes for Lerman who is still without a turf win this season. Roho adds value. Bonaventure Dreams (1) had best fig in last six days ago. Wasiluk is 25% ITM in the last two seasons with fastbacks. Win (5), Saver Exactas 1,3,10/5 and Trifectas 5/1,9/1,3,9,10

6th – Contenders Only - Changeinthecourse (8) just missed in last three on fast track and shortens up after closing fast last time out. KO’C/RoHo are 23-49 ITM. Skyblue Cowgirl (5) led in the stretch in last four races. Shortens up today. Griffith/Montalvo are 37-68 ITM. Arterburn has Monstrip (2) and he is 46% ITM in first three off-the-claim. CJ’s Nannie prevailed in a long drive with Miss Approval in last and Miss Approval was 2nd by a neck yesterday in C8 N3L company. Win (8), Saver 5,8 and 5,8/2,3,6/2,3,6,5,8

7th – Contenders Only – Call Me Mambo (2) won with the best fig in the field at first asking and is the horse to beat. Tobin’s Rules (3) goes for Jorge Navarro who is having a good season with 11-20 ITM. Sarina’s Mama(8) won last with a 42 (today’s par is 68), but Scace wins 42% with RB + UC types. Jean the Queen (10) also won and with a burst of late speed in last, after waiting what seemed like forever, for a seam to get thru in the stretch. Her fig was a dismal 32. Exacta Box 2,4,8 and Trifectas 2,4,8/3,5,10/2,4,8

8th - Contenders Only – Tiara Di Oro (1) is the only local horse that was ever close to par and that was in N1X victory, two back. Proctor wins 25% (50% ITM) with shorten ups. Centeno sticks. Negative inside bias is history. Dageurreotype (4) also won N1X affair two back and goes for Scott. Scott wins 22% (37% ITM) with L1-3’s. I wouldn’t call it his Achilles Heel, but Ness wins only 22% with Shippers, so Constance doesn’t turn me on. Great Squawk (5) goes for McCarthy, and she wins only 7% with shorten up types. Exacta Box 1,4 and Saver Exactas 1/2,5 and Pick 3 1/3,4/All

9th – Contenders Only – Hit Another Gear (3) has a couple of final fractions that can’t be touched by these. The jig is up for Hollett. Was supposed to win two back at 56-1 on the grass, but he broke in the air, was 15 back at the 1st Call and still tried to win, finishing 3rd by 2 ½, a very big effort. Pray for a price again today. Djeddah (4) disappointed in last after big, above par effort two back. Had lightning fast work recently. Another chance here. Win (3), Saver Exacta 4/3 and Trifectas 3,4/1.2.5.6/3,4

10th - Contenders Only – See 8th race Pick 3 1/3,4/All

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/17/09

2009-03-15T17:06:00.008-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....18-57(32%) -$11.80 (18-13-6) (65% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 3rd race $4 saver exacta returned $34.40,
I had the winner of the 7th, Beautiful Rainbows, $5.80,
My 7th race $32 trifecta returned $79.80, and
I had the winner of the 9th, You Go West Girl, $4.00 So it goes...

Johnny B. may have an italian last name, but the other half of his genes are from the Emerald Isle. Happy St. Patrick's Day to all and may we all share in the luck o' the Irish today!

Tuesday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only – It’s hard to make a case for any of these, so I’m going with a Daily Double Wheel here. DD’s All/9

2nd - Contenders Only – Magic Carpet Glide (9) shortens up today after setting the pace and finishing a game second (with an above par effort) in last. Gucaipuro (5) rallied to finish third in the same race and figures to be close again. Jet Prop’s (3) figs have dropped off precipitously with each drop in class. I’m staying away from Jet Prop. See DD Wheel above, Saver Exacta 5/9 and Trifectas 5,9/1,2,7/5,9

3rd – Contenders Only – Nan’s Star (7) was close to par in last and has the forwardly racing running style that gets horses to the winners circle, but 7-5? Cibelli is 62% ITM with shorten ups. Win (7), Saver Exactas 1,9/7 and Trifectas 7/2,5,8/1,9

4th - Contenders Only – Lotta TLC (9) comes rightback for Jim Wright who is 8-33 with horses that won their last start. Nice Roundup (8) had best fig in the field in last and is now 2-6. Win (9), Saver Exacta 8/9 and Trifectas 8,9/5,6,7/1,8,9

5th – Contenders Only – Jackie’s Causeway (2) tried to steal last one at 11.90-1 against winners and returns to maiden company today at the same 9F distance after racing above par in that one. Roho has the call this afternoon. Alabama Grace (1) goes for Michael Matz, who has two wins and two seconds in eight starts this season. Centeno has the return call. Win (2), Saver Exacta 1/2 and Trifectas 1,2/5,7/1,2,5,7

6th – Contenders Only – Many Mesas (10) is not the same horse he was last year and has disappointed in three in a row. I’m done. Swing for the fences here. Trifecta Box 2,5,6,7

7th – Contenders Only – Ron’s Perennial (6) raced above par two and three back and is 5-7 ITM now. Will be trying again today. McBride wins only 3% on the stretchout, but since Ron has done his best work going further than six panels, I think an exception is in order. Strike It Ritz (4) comes right back for Delacour, who wins 28% with righbacks, but % E indicates the horse should stick to the route. Bankers High Yield (5) has nine seconds and is bound to pop in third time over for Mr. Allen. Win (5), Saver Exacta 6/5 and Trifectas 5,6/4/1,2,4,5,6

8th – Contenders Only – Conchacer (6) was well above par in both starts and should provide some value here. Scottish Mystery (5) is the main competition and Ness wins 36% (73% ITM) with No Change types. Vinnies Wild Tale (4) goes for Larry Bates who wins only 12% with Shippers and only 3% going Turf-to-Dirt. Win (6), Saver Exacta 5/6 and Trifectas 5,6/2,4,8/5,6

9th – Contenders Only – Photo Image (3) goes for Ness who wins 38% (73% ITM) with shorten up types. Photo Image is very reliable, with 15-25 ITM lifetime on the grass, including eight trips to the winner’s circle. Would love to break the ice with first win of 2009 today. Win (3), Saver Exactas 1,2,4/3 and Trifectas 3/8,12,13/1,2,4

10th – Contenders Only - Successful Dude (3) goes for Michael Mariena, who is 3-9 this season at Tampa. Dude was well backed in debut and raced forwardly before giving way. Any further development since last August and Successful Dude should make it to the winner’s circle. Win (3), Saver Exactas 1,6/3 and Trifectas 3,7/1,3,6,7/1,3,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/15/09

2009-03-15T10:42:00.002-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....18-57(32%) -$11.80 (18-13-6) (65% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 2nd race $4 saver exacta returned $36.40,
My 9th race $4 saver exacta returned $13.80, and
I had the winner of the 13th, Later Gator for $6.00. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections at http://www.thetbdhandicapper.com/ :

1st – Contenders Only – Cotswold Hills (9) was close to par at 7F and his %E is near the upper limit for 8.18F, but it is in the zone. Ritchey wins with maidens 40% of the time at Tampa and 20% going Sprint-to Route. Double Bonus Day (5) was tepidly backed in debut and stretches out for Ryan, who wins 28% with his stretchouts at Tampa. Workout on March 8th was extraordinary for a maiden claimer. Switches to Ronnie Allen Jr. Win (9) and Saver Exacta 5/9.

2nd – Contenders Only – Glory Cat (5) goes for Cathy Rountree who was 70% ITM on the stretchout and won 20% with 2L’s in the last two seasons at Tampa. Has had three goose eggs to this point in the season and is overdue. Sneaky Guy (8) has superior figs and needs only to find her stride to win once. However, KO’C wins only 11% with L1-3’s, so today may not be the day. Win (5), Saver Exacta 8/5 and Trifectas 5/1,3,6/1,3,6,8

3rd – Contenders Only – Jade’s A Pleasure (1) was close in both tries at this level and shortens up today. Brnjas/Feliciano are 5-6 ITM. Numero Uno Lady (6) won last with sub-par 46 (in a par 57) but Gerry Bennett is in the money an eye popping 83% with Fastback + UC angle. Exacta Box 1,6 and Saver Exactas 1,6/7 and Trifectas 1,6,/3,5,8/1,6,7

4th – Contenders Only – Fluffy’s Girl (3). Fontana switches to #7 leading jockey Mike Allen after Fluffy showed nothing all season. Something is up! Winterello (10) returns to a route after racing evenly at 7F in last. Sheds 14 lbs. in switch to apprentice rider M. Straight. Catch A Peek (8) has a 24% win rate and %E says she could go the distance, but an 8YO going 8.5F for the first time doesn’t add up. Win (3,10), Trifectas 3,10/2,5,7,8/3,5,10

5th – Contenders Only – Peinture Fraiche (2) was above par in last five on the grass and finished up close after long drive in last. Has had four weeks off. Excellent work on 3/11 indicates continued readiness. Try Your Best (14) goes for Bruce Alexander who is 68% ITM with L4-8s. Win (2), Saver Exactas 10,14/2 and Trifectas 2/1,7,8,12/10,14

6th – Contenders Only – Talking Flirt (1) takes a big step up from a par 65 to a par 71. Seems unlikely to repeat. Classy Flower (2) raced above today’s par in last and Simms wins 29% rightback. Very tough here. Beautiful Rainbows (4) takes a drop in 3rd off Cibelli claim. She is 88% ITM in first three off claim. A pot of gold lies at the other end for Beautiful Rainbows. Win (4), Saver Exactas 2,5/4 and Trifectas 4/2,3,5,6/2,3,5,6

7th – Contenders Only – My Pill Box (4) was six lengths above par in last two and is the horse to beat. Velez has had positive momentum after a poor start earlier in the season. Ms. Short Pockets (9) goes for 4-6 on the grass trainer Jason Servis. Was well bet in debut. Dam has a turf winner. Gets Centeno in the irons. Win (4) and Saver Exacta 9/4

8th – Contenders Only – Lucky Dreamer (2) gets the nod on Ness’s forte angle, the Route-to-Sprint where he won 50% in the last two seasons. It’s a tough race though. Win (2) and Saver Exactas 1,3,6/2

9th – Contenders Only – Win (2), Saver Exacta 3/2 and Trifectas 2,3/4,5,7/2,3,4,5,7

10th – Contenders Only – Blazing Prize (6) gets the nod on demonstrated ability at the distance and forward running style. Last fig was 77 not the 70 that the bible shows. Win (6), Saver Exacta 5/6 and DD Wheel 6/All

11th – See DD Wheel above.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 3/14/09

2009-03-14T07:50:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.14-32 (44%) -$4.60(14-3-6) (72% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....18-57(32%) -$11.80 (18-13-6) (65% ITM)

On Thursday, my prime wager, Snow Lass won and paid $5.20.
My soft wager in the first, Val's Gold, won and paid $10.60.
My soft wager in the second, Metro System, won and paid $4.20 and my $2 DD returned $22.40.
My soft wager in the 10th, Master Speak, settled for 3rd money.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 11th race $12 exacta key box returned $38.80. So it goes...

Saturday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com:

1st – Contenders Only – Free Light (2) made a slow gain in last and stretches out another panel today for Griffith, who wins 27% (59% ITM) on the stretchout. Griffith/Montalvo team are 54% ITM. Five Star Sweetie (4) and Aliens Last Strike (9) hit the wire ½ a length apart in last. Alien figures to have the jump on Five Star Sweetie again this afternoon. All three were above par last time out. Exacta Box 2,4,9 and Trifectas 2,4,9/1,5/2,4,9

2nd – Contenders Only – Star Trader (4) was closest to par in last and goes for Tom Proctor who wins 33% (50%) ITM with No Change types. Algazara (3) is off solid maiden victory, but McCarthy wins rightback only 9% of the time. Stormy C’s (1) is 9-16 ITM lifetime. Win (4), Saver Exactas 1,3/4 and Trifectas 4/6,8/1,3,6,8

3rd – Contenders Only – Now and Forever (4) was above par in both starts and goes for Tampa veteran Graham Motion. Jeremy Rose (who won 23% of his mounts in 2008) has the call. State Treasure (6) goes for Zweiesler who has had some success with Turf-to-Dirt moves. State Treasure had two magnificent workouts in the last couple of weeks and is ready. Exacta Box 4,6 and Trifectas 4,6/2,5,8/4,6

4th – Contenders Only – Nite in Rome (9) was above par in 7 of last 10, including last race. Zwiesler wins 35% (57% ITM) with L1-3’s. Zwiesler/Montalvo team is 60% ITM. Pat’s Image (10) has three wins now and last was an impressive above par victory. Was above par in 9 of last 10 and is 9-19 ITM lifetime. Exacta Box 9,10 and Trifectas 9,10/1,5,6,11/9,10,11

5th – Contenders Only – The off-the-pacers have their way after the 4,5, & 8 duke it out on the front end throughout. Exacta Box 3,6,10

6th – Contenders Only – Therecomesthetiger (7) was closest to par with a 96 in a par 101 in last. Comes off two month layoff and Proctor wins 27% (53% ITM) with L1-3’s. Tiger has two wins and two seconds in seven starts at Tampa. Exacta Key Box 7/1,4,8 and Trifectas 6/7/1,4,8

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 6/4,7 and Trifectas 6/5,8/4,7

8th – Contenders Only – DD Wheel All/4

9th – Contenders Only – Ameribelle (4) rushed up to gain good position from PP7, was covered up on the rail throughout, burst through a seam leaving the far turn, got the lead and just hung, settling for 2nd in last. Better trip yields better results this afternoon. See R8 DD and Saver Exactas 2,6/4

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key 7/6,8,9 and Trifectas 7/2/6,8,9

11th – Contenders Only – Win (8), Saver Exacta 4/8 and Trifectas 4,8/2,6/4,8

12th - Contenders Only – Chamberlain Bridge (6) is 8-15 lifetime with monstrous win in last. Has a great trainer in Calhoun (26%) and a great rider in Jeremy Rose (23%). Looks like a winning combination to me. Exacta Key Box 6/1,7

13th – Contenders Only – Later Gator (10) had 11.60 final fraction in last (the best in today’s field) and is on the dropdown for 26% turf trainer George Handy. Lucky Leo (5) stopped inexplicably in last, and has earned another chance here. Win (10), Saver Exactas 5,6,7/10 and Trifectas 5,10/1,3,14/5,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/13/09

2009-03-12T18:17:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(29%) -$20.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Thursday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 3rd race $8 exacta key box returned $22.80, and
My 4th race $12 exacta key box returned $22.60. So it goes...

Friday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :

1st – A Soft Wager – Val’s Gold (1) is on the shorten up after above par effort in first try at two turns. Ness/Cruz team has 4 winners in 6 attempts. Osceola Cat Dancer (7) is off-the-layoff and Kathleen O’Connell wins 20% (40% ITM) with L4-8 + Shipper types. Win (1), Saver Exacta 7/1 and Trifectas 1,7/4,10/1,4,7,10 and DD 1/7

2nd – A Soft Wager – Metro System (7) broke last, was 8 ½ lengths back after ¼ mile, made a protracted middle move, then continued to run down the leader, but was too late in extraordinary effort in last. Harries/Martinez are 6-11 ITM. Alie’s Doublecross (2) was close to par in last three, but is not looking like a winner after 17 maiden starts. Win (7), Saver Exacta 2/7 and Trifectas All/7/2

3rd – Contenders Only – Jim’s Cover Up (8) goes for Duane Knipe, who wins 29% (43% ITM) with 2L4-8’s. Jim has a win and three seconds in five starts at 5F. Figures to improve on a fast surface today. Cat Daddy Steve (6) was second best in last after above par effort. Shortens up here. Exacta Box 6,8 and Trifectas 6,8/1,4/1,4,6,8

4th – Contenders Only – Uno Way Calle (3). Ness lost him six weeks ago for $10,000 and gets him back for the bargain price of $5000 after low % trainer Brenda McCarthy failed to get anything from him in two attempts. If Uno had problems it would have been a one way street for Ness, but he claims him back instead. Now he’s got nothing to lose (figuratively) and can race him at the $5000 level until he pops. Last start at $5000 level was Uno’s first lifetime. Ness/Cruz team has 4 winners in 6 races this year. Exacta Key 3/2,7 and Trifectas 2,7/8,9,10,12/3

5th – A prime wager – Snow Lass (1) raced very professionally and responded well under steady handling in debut as the odds-on favorite. Had the best fig among today’s starters. Scace wins 60% with L1-3 + RB + UC types. Penn Atlantic (1a) had game effort in maiden win and Scace wins 35% rightback. This prime is contingent on Snow Lass going. Win (1), Saver Exacta 2,7/1 and Trifectas 1/4/2,7

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,6/2,9 and Trifectas 4,6/3,5/2,4,6,9

7th – Contenders Only – Schopenhauer (2) goes for Dennis Manning who is 4-8 on the grass at this meeting, and won 50% with layoffs in the last two seasons. Centeno has the call. In Studio (5) has been above par in all three turf starts, but Dogden is 1-17 in last three seasons on the grass. Ndongo (12) is another who is always above par. All three horses have sub-12 final fractions. Exacta Box 2,5,12 and Trifectas 2,5,12/10/2,5,12

8th – Contenders Only – Samy Good Luck (1) is lightly raced with a nice clean record, a winning profile here. Caledon Cat (9) has %E that is right in the target zone for the stretchout. Ide Be O for Ten (8) made a nice move on the first turn, chased the leader on the backstretch, gained the lead in the second turn and then weakened in deep stretch, settling for 3rd at 67-1 in last. Exacta Key Box 1/8,9,11 and Trifectas 1/3,4,6/8,9,11

9th – Contenders Only – Talented Princess (8) had an 11.66 final fraction in last and goes for Peter Walder, who is 50% ITM in last two seasons on the grass. Leading rider Daniel Centeno has the call. The 4 and the 7 also had sub-12 finals last time out. Exacta Key Box 8/4,7 and Trifectas 4,7,8/2,3,6/4,7,8

10th – A soft wager – Master Speak (8) gets on nod on Ness’s amazing 61% win strike rate with L1-3 + S + Dropdowns in last two seasons. Win (8), Saver Exactas 1,5,6/8 and DD Wheel 8/All

11th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 1,3,5/7,12/1,3,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/12/09

2009-03-10T16:50:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(29%) -$20.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.
Among my contenders only selections:
My 3rd race $36 trifecta returned $70.20,
My 4th race $20 daily double wheel returned $23.20, and
My 5th race $12 trifecta returned $100.40 So it goes...

Thursday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – A wide open affair with all of them potentially reaching the wire together. Black Kat Mambo (5) adds blinkers for Cataldi who has good success with 2TS’s and goes to Cotto (2-6 ITM for Cataldi). Phat Dream (10) showed something first time over, in the only last race that was close to par. Follow the Recipe (11) was close in two of four lifetime starts. Exacta Box 5,10,11 and Trifectas 4,8,12/5/10,11

2nd – Contenders Only –Ottosea (1) won and just missed going long two and three back and deserves another chance here, unlike Sweetsouthernstar (6) who has had 22 chances and was the beaten favorite in last two (yeah, I know she had a bad trip last time out).Asteria Meadow (4) %E is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance, but she’s close to it. Danica (9) was close two back, then had a short lead before she gave way in last. You never know. Rio Rendevous (8). Knipe wins only 8% on the stretchout. Exacta Key Box 1/4,9 and Trifectas 1,4/6,9/1,4,6,9

3rd – Contenders Only – Honor America (6) raced at par by my figs in last and was gaining late. Alexander is 50% ITM in first three off-the-claim, Roho who rode three of his four winners this season has the return call. Exacta Key Box 6/3,8 and Trifectas 3,6/4,7,8/3,4,6,7,8

4th – Contenders Only – Red Plays Rough (7) gets the key spot in the exacta on merits. Raced forwardly in first two, both races that were won in final times well above par. Lawrenceberg (2) was scratched by practicing vet on March 5th. Teator sticks with “showed little” Full Jet (9). Exacta Key Box 7/2,4,5 and Trifectas 7/6,9/2,4,5

5th – Contenders Only – Storm Harbor (2) had sub-12 final fractions in only two starts on firm course, none of the others can say as much. (When I say final fraction, I mean the horses average time in seconds per furlong, from the 2nd Call to the wire). Last work was satisfactory. Win (2), Saver Exacta 10/2 and Trifectas 2,10/1,3,5,12/2,10

6th - Contenders Only – Centeno jumps to Macumbira (10) after striking out (three times) with Counterproposal (3). He should know. Macumbira was ITM 5 of last 8 on the dirt. Juan Arias is a Tampa veteran and knows what he’s doing. Win (10), Saver Exacta 3/10 and Trifectas 10/1,2,7,9/1,2,3,7,9

7th – Contenders Only – Fire Ridge (2) posted a 79 in a par 64 in last and was ridden out. Red Hot (I wish I had red type here) Ronnie Allen Jr., who had 4 winners and a second on Tuesday has the return call. Would be a prime if Proctor won more than 5% when going up in class. Exacta Key 2/4,7,10 and Trifectas 4,7,10/2/4,7,10

By the way, PP’s 1 & 2 have won less than their fare share of races for weeks on end in dirt sprints, but Ronnie Allen Jr brought home two from the inside on Tuesday. How did he do it? Ronnie brought both of them to the middle of the track right after the break in both. Heads up riding Ronnie!

8th – Contenders Only – Out In The Open (1) drops for Gerry Bennett who wins 25% (52% ITM) with dropdowns and comes back fast where he wins 24% (70% ITM). Was closest to par two back. Must overcome the #1 post. Bucky Came Home (9) worked fast from the gate on 2/17 and appears ready for return. Lucie could have win #2 here. Behrens burned me on Sunday when he brought CJ’s Whatsinaname back fast and I dismissed the horse on Behrens’ 3% win rate with fastbacks. Whip the Groom (3) won on the fastback on Feb. 6th. Does he have a new angle? I won’t know until the numbers are crunched for 2009-2010. Caveat Emptor. Exacta Key Box 1/2,3,4 and Trifectas 2,9/1/3,4,6,8

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,5,10 and Trifectas 2,5,10/3,6,7,11/2,5,10

10th – Contenders Only – Mahvelous Bert (12) right back for Pecoraro after an above par victory 13 days ago. Centeno looks for another trip to the winner’s circle. Wild Inquiry (2) drops from a par 82 to a par 75 (one of those major, but less than obvious drops) and shortens up today. Thatsthe Fact Jack (5) goes for Gatis who is 7-28 in first off-the-claim according to the bible. Man of Men (11) has been tough all season and shortens up after having a clear lead and hanging in last. Rhone is a bomb maker. The higher Man of Men’s odds the better I like him. Exacta Key Box 12/2,5,11 and Trifectas 11,12/2,4,5,6/11,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/10/09

2009-03-08T17:34:00.003-04:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(29%) -$20.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 5th race $6 saver exacta returned $10.20. Longshots broke up everything again today. I had one of them in my 2nd race exacta key box, Golden Trend ($37.20), but that was broken up when my key horse Victory at Midway (the second choice) stopped. So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Dale’s Token (5) had a satisfactory debut. Scace wins 25% (42% ITM) with 2TS at Tampa. Adds L1. Cope With Three (6) just hung in last with best fig in today’s field. Smock wins 50% (67% ITM) with No Change types. Early Again (11) went evenly in last at 5F, had second best figs among today’s starters in two previous races. Exacta Box 5,6,11 and Trifectas 6,11/1,3,7,8/5,6,11

2nd – Contenders Only – Landsdown Street (5) was above par in last and has shown ability to stay close while arguing fast early fractions. Tommy’s Closing (6) was gaining late at 6F in second try. Appears likely to improve on the stretchout. Despite best fig among today’s starters, sucker tendencies keep low % trainer Charles Fontana’s Call On Joshua (7) out of the winner’s circle. Exacta Box 5,6 and Trifectas 5,6/3,7/3,5,6,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Make My Day (6) was much the best in above par maiden victory. Trainer Ed Williams wins 40% (80% ITM) rightback and 31% (69% ITM) going up in class at Tampa. Hard to argue with those stats. Clearly the key horse in my Exacta Key Box 6/2,5 and Trifectas 2,5,6/1,3,8/2,5,6

4th – Contenders Only – A wide open race with nothing but question marks. Has Gatis corrected the problem with Meredith (1)? Can Zeeva (2) win a par 56 race after putting up a 35 in last? Is a Dual Diagnosis (6) needed for both the 1 and the 6? Can She’s Got Bling (10) win going 8.5F for the first time. Will Winterello (11) go? DD Wheel All/5

5th – Contenders Only - Screening Room (5) may or may not be challenged for the early lead, but if she is, she prevails. Will change running style if circumstances dictate and Centeno asks. Montalcino (10) has been close in every start this season. McBride is 60% ITM with the Route-to-Sprint in last two seasons at Tampa. Soaring Storm (11) was above par first time over. Exacta Key Box 5/10,11 and Trifectas 5/1,10,11/1,10,11

6th – Contenders Only – Mr. George’s Dreams (2) had the best fig in the field in last, two weeks ago, and checked into the first turn in that one. Gets the nod on current form. Win (2), Saver Exactas 5,8/2 and Trifectas 2/4,12/5,8

7th – Contenders Only – Hallelujah (11) had a satisfactory final fraction in a winning effort in last at *8.5F. Has the best late kick in a race that’s likely to be hotly contested on the front end throughout. Smock won 18% of the time on the grass in the last two seasons. Leading turf trainer Ziadie has Gaara (7) but goes to Andrew Ramgeet who is 3-103 on the grass in 2008-2009.Win (11) and Trifectas 9,11,12/1,10/1,9,10,11,12

8th – Contenders Only – Premier Roma (6) was above par in debut and had lightning fast work six days ago. Only the firsters can upset. Win (6) and Saver Exactas 2,7,10/6

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,4,7 and Trifectas 1,4,7/2,6/1,4,7

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 1,5,9 and Trifectas 3,4,12/1,5,9/1,5,9

God luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/08/09

2009-03-07T18:52:00.002-05:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(29%) -$20.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Saturday, my soft wager in the 4th, Our Stormy Girl, went off the favorite, set a fast early pace and gave way, finishing out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 3rd race $8 exacta key box returned $20.40, and
My 7th race $8 exacta key box returned $17.80.

Three longshots ensured an unprofitable afternoon. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – It’s a Good Tour (6) raced forwardly in last and goes on a fast dirt surface for the first time. Leaves rock bottom turf claiming ranks for rock bottom dirt. Does today’s tag actually represent a drop in class? Well yes, but maybe just enough to make the difference in this pathetic event. Miss Levesque (4) stretches out and sheds 9 lbs. after suspiciously poor Tampa debut. Ditto for Timetolitethestar (8). Silver Miss (10) raced forwardly in last two, may surprise on the stretchout. Johnny B.’s figs on 1 and 9 in last were 11 and 19 respectively (in a par 41). I don’t care if one of them wins, they’re not getting my action. Exacta Key Box 6/4,8,10

2nd - Contenders Only – Victory at Midway (2) was closest to par in last two and Duane Knipe is 50% ITM with Stretchout + Dropdowns in last two seasons. 4,9 and 10 are Tampa regulars with high ITM % and clean records. Sir Swervalot (3) will give his all despite whatever ails him. Big John G (5) has never won on the fastback. Sipho (7) doesn’t win off the layoff. Everblazing (8). Fontana is 3% with fastbacks and 2% with stretchouts. Exacta Key Box 2/4,9,10 and Trifectas 2,3/2,3/4,9,10

3rd – Contenders Only – Ryder Jax (2) was above par in last two. Held a safe margin for the win in last. Had a better fig two back after she bore out at break and lost ground in the process. I think she’s got another gear we haven’t seen yet. Centeno has the call. Seed of Faith (1). Two of Dana Cross’ four wins in the last three seasons came on the fastback. Shortens up today, after Seed of Faith vied and weakened at 8.18F. Ron Behrens wins 3% with fastback types, eliminating CJ’s Whatsinaname (6) from contention. Exacta Key 2/1,4

4th – Contenders Only – Lots of early speed sets the table for those with a running style that gets going in the later stages of the race. Exacta Box 6,12 and Trifectas 6,12/4,9,10/6,7,12

5th - Contenders Only – Hot Rod Tutt (10) ships in from GP and shortens up for last year’s #2 turf trainer Kathleen O’Connell. Speedy types have been taking turf routes start to finish all season. Tutt had a big final fraction of 11.64 in last. Centeno has the call. KO’C/Centeno team is 6-9 ITM this season but winless. They break the ice this afternoon. Blue blooded John M. Gaver III (grandson of Hall of Famer John Sr.) has the firster Admiral Bull (4) and should be considered a contender. Win (10), Saver Exactas 4,9,11/10 and Trifectas 10/2,4,9,11/2,4,9,11

6th – Contenders Only – Leader Whip (8) dueled throughout and finished well above par two back. Shortens up today for Behrens, who is 34% ITM with shorten ups. Leader Whip is 3-5 ITM at Tampa. Win (8), Saver Exacta 4/8 and Trifectas 8/2,3,4/1,2,3,4

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/3,5,8 and Trifectas 4/1,7,9/3,5,8

8th – Contenders Only – Beat Your Bluff (3) posted an above par fig two back and goes for Ed Williams who is 58% ITM with L1-3’s. Takes a drop and shortens up. Exacta Key Box 3/7,8 and Trifectas 3/1,10,11/7,8

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,5,8

10th – Contenders Only – Taking Stock (4) was above par in four of last five, and benefits from the stretchout. Leading rider Daniel Centeno has the return call. Exacta Key Box 4/5,9 and Saver Exacta 8/4

11th – Contenders Only – Flying Palm (1) was above par in last two, and drops from a par 78 to a par 75. Has nice clean record, but is winless in seven tries at Tampa and has to overcome PP 1. Bennett wins 25% (50% ITM) with dropdowns. Ocean of Dreams (6) has been above par in last two, but is winless in ’08 and ’09. Very Arrogant (7) comes back fast for Juan Camilo who wins 26% (52%ITM) with fastbacks. Exacta Key Box 7/1,6 and Trifectas 5,7,9/1,6/1,5,6,7,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/07/09

2009-03-06T16:57:00.006-05:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-54(30%) -$18.60 (16-13-5) (63% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager in the 3rd, Carolsbeentaukin, was out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $4 exacta box returned $16.20,
I had the winner of the 8th, Harold's Sister, $3.40,
My 10th race $8 exacta key box returned $19.80, and
My 11th race $12 exacta box returned $44.00. So it goes...

Saturday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com :

1st – Contenders Only – Shore Breeze Hero (4) has been almost flawless (11 4-5-0) and last two were close to par. Gatis is 75% ITM with first three off-the-claim. Darby Lee (8) had best fig in the field in last and comes right back for Ness who wins 38% (ITM 67%) with horses who won their last race. DD 4,8/5,10 and Trifectas 4,8/1,3,5/4,8

2nd – Contenders Only – Bluelick (5) and Circumvent (10) were heads apart in last with the best figs among today’s starters. Bluelick was claimed by Knipe who is 46% ITM with first three off-the-claim. Ness has Circumvent and he gets the nod for having a running style that’s simpatico with the track profile for 9F. Early speed has dominated dirt routes since opening day. Exacta Box 5,10 and Trifectas 5,10/1,3,4,8/5,10

3rd – Contenders Only – R Vicarious Girl (4) goes for leading turf trainer Kirk Ziadie (9-24). A horse for the course, with four wins and a place in six races. Ziadie/Homeister team are 31-45 ITM. Cut for Luck (6) posted monstrous fig in last at GP, however, she is not in the habit of winning back-to-back and goes for Caple who is winless on the turf this season. Jockey A.E. Smith is up. Exacta Key Box 4/6,7 and Trifectas 4,6,7/3/4,6,7

4th – A soft wager – Our Stormy Girl (12) ML 12-1 Seems to be getting the idea and shortens up today after flashing speed briefly at 8F on the grass. Workout on March 3rd was three clicks above par for bullets at 4F from the gate. Adds blinkers. Feliciano is batting .380 this season. Doesn’t have to beat much. The favorite, Eventful Halo (1), is handicapped by inside post position. Win (12), Exacta Key Box 12/1,7 and Saver Exactas 5,6,8,9,11/12

5th – Contenders Only – Ostin’s Miracle (7). Trainer Larry Hall was ITM 57% of the time on the grass in the last two seasons. Babo (12) is cheap but he had two sub-12 final fractions on grass at Laurel last fall. Tampa newcomer Mark Passley with Approved by Dylan (1) is 1-4 on the grass this season. Exacta Box 8,10,11 and Trifectas 8,10,11/1,3/1,3,4,7,12

6th – Contenders Only – E.F.F. Scher (9) and Miss Firecat (10) had solid performances in last two and were closest to par. R. Magical Bonnie (8) won debut and adds L1 today. Late run may be hampered by E/P favoring surface. Exacta Box 9,10 and Saver Exactas 8/9,10 and Trifectas 9,10/4,7,8,11,12/8,9,10

7th – Contenders Only – Fierce Wind (10). Phipps is perfect this season and last year’s Davis Stakes winner looks like a winner again this afternoon. Fearless Vision (7) has been very consistent and with superior figs. Eclipse winner A.E. Smith has the call for Patrick L. Reynolds. Wayzata Bay (2) was right there in last against Fierce Wind, but the speed favoring Tampa surface leaves Wayzata Bay and Dinner In Odem (9) at a disadvantage. Exacta Key Box 10/2,7 and Trifectas 2,7,10/4,5,6/2,7,10

8th – Contenders Only – For You Reppo (6) has been facing better and finds a softer spot today. If he’s gonna pop, this should be the day. RoHo has the call. Exacta Key Box 6/1,7 and Trifectas 6/1,2,3,7/1,2,3,7

9th – Contenders Only – DD Wheel All/2

10th – Contenders Only – Constitution River (2) just missed in last. Both Tampa turf wins were after a layoff. River is Ambrosia’s pride and joy and he will deliver. Not Acclaim (6) looks great but Ziadie won only 17% of the time with L1-3’s in the past two seasons. See DD Wheel in races 9 and 10, Saver Exactas 3,6,8/2

11th – Contenders Only – Burning Light (3) shortens up after saving the place in last. Gerry Bennett wins 24% with maiden claimers. Ronnie Allen Jr. has the return call. Win (3), Saver Exactas 9,12/3 and Trifectas 3/All/9,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/06/09

2009-03-05T19:28:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-53(30%) -$16.60 (16-13-5) (64% ITM)

On Thursday, I had no prime or soft wagers. Among my contenders only selections, I had five winners and a scratch but none of my combinations clicked. So it goes...

Hola y recepcion la primera vez al visitante de Espana!
(Hello and welcome to the first time website visitor from Spain!)

Friday’s selections at www.thetbdhandicapper.com:

1st - Contenders Only – Meadow Skipper (6) Early speed improves with each start. Was in the race to mid-stretch last time out. Precision Queen (11) had the best fig in the field two back, then raced forwardly and stopped. Was entered at 7F on 2/7 but scratched after getting loose in post parade. Martinez sticks with this tempermental filly, so do I. Sheer Queenie (12) is another improving 3YO and she finished 2nd in last with a fig good enough to beat these today. Exacta Box 6,11,12 and Trifectas 6,11,12/3,10/6,11,12

2nd – Contenders Only – Sarina’s Mama (10) was closest to par than any of today’s starters in last, but Smock wins only 4% with shorten ups and 8% with dropdowns. Smock/Cotto are ITM ½ the time. Still looks like the best but not at odds less than 5-2. Wynn’s Wild Flower (9) saved the place in last but will surely be pressured by one or more of the firsters in today’s race. Exacta Box 9,10 and Trifectas All/10/9

3rd – A soft wager – Carolsbeentaukin (3). Six of nine in last were $25,000 claimers including the winner and the placer. Last two figs were best among these. Has been racing into fast early paces and should have a pace that’s more to her liking this afternoon. Win (3), Exacta 3/1 and Trifectas 3/2,4,6,7,/1

4th – Contenders Only – Richie London (4) returns to a sprint for new connections after a good race at 8.5F. Benny Feliciano is having a dynamite meeting and has had the midas touch off the claim lately. Queens Crumpets (6) was declared a non-starter in last because the horse did not have a fair start. The jockey's right foot was not in the iron when the gate doors opened and Michele Dehn was unseated. Miguel Feliciano opts for sprint after excellent 3F work a week ago, however, Queens Crumpets is only 2-16 in sprints lifetime. Exacta Key Box 4/3,6,9 and Trifectas 4,6/3,9/4,6

5th – Contenders Only – Forever Gleaming (3) has highest fig at today’s distance and that was in last. Was beaten favorite in last. Red hot Daniel Centeno (7-12 in the past week) is up. New Zealander (6) and Always In Love (8) both have %E that is outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Win (3) and Trifectas 5,9/3/2,4,5,7,9

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 5/1,2 and Trifectas 2,5/6,10/1,2,5,6,10

7th – Contenders Only – Appella’s Trip (8) has been close to or above par in all route starts since spring of 2YO season. Leaves open company for N3L today. Leading rider Daniel Centeno takes the call. Shegoestoeleven (1). O’connell wins 25% and is ITM 50% with Turf-to-Dirt + runners and Shegoestoeleven had three seconds in seven dirt starts. K O’C/Homeister team are 15-31 ITM. Exacta Key Box 8/1,3,7 and Trifectas 1,8/3,5,7/1,3,5,7,8

8th – Contenders Only – Harold’s Sister (10) had best fig in the field in last. ITM in 5 of 6. Bullet work three days ago Bates won only 10% with L1-3’s in last two seasons. Win (10) and Saver Exactas 3,8/10.

9th – Contenders Only – The three 8YO’s battle it out in a grudge match. Sunsational (2) Exposito is only 20% ITM in first three off claim. Exacta Box 3,5,6

10th – Contenders Only – In last race Azura (6) was last entering the turn, made a middle move in the turn, was going very well in the stretch but could not reach the winner. In race before that Azura had best fig in the field on the grass. Azura has delivered in every start and today will be no different. Exacta Key Box 6/5,7 and Trifectas 6/1,3,4,8/5,7

11th - Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,7,8 and Trifectas 3,7,8/1,5,6,11/3,7,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/05/09

2009-03-03T17:37:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results.13-31 (42%) -$7.80(13-3-6) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-53(30%) -$16.60 (16-13-5) (64% ITM)

On Tuesday, my prime wager in the 7th, Gesundheit, won by five and paid $4.60.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 8th race $4 saver exacta returned $16.00,
My 9th race $32 trifecta returned $572.00, and
My 10th race $8 trifecta returned $391.80. So it goes...

Note: In the last three seasons, the 2nd and 3rd choices in Feature and Stakes races have had a positive ROI of $0.61 and $1.74 in straight exactas, respectively. To date this season, these 2nd and 3rd choice straight exactas are 2-56 in Features and 0-14 in Stakes with ROI's of -21 cents in Features and -$2.00 in Stakes. Don’t miss the boat. Start playing (or at least considering) these straight exactas as they are overdue to start clicking and we are well beyond the mid-point of the racing season.

Thursday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Lawrenceberg (8) was closest to par in last and drops to rock bottom level here. Ronnie Allen Jr. sticks. One Eyed Sailor (1) gets attention with 3-6 ITM. Lincoln Imp (10) %E in last two have been close to or above the upper limit for 8.5F. Exacta Key Box 8/1,10 and Trifectas 1,8/2,9,10/1,8,10

2nd – Contenders Only – I’ll Make It Up (10) had best figs in the field throughout his 2008 campaign and was the beaten favorite in debut at Tampa. Been absent for awhile. Work on Feb.18th was excellent for this bunch of losers. Teators absence aboard Joan Scott’s Cacti (7) is suspect. Exacta Box 6,10, and Trifectas 6,10/1,6,8,10/1,7,8

3rd – Contenders Only – Just for Kicks (1) comes back to the dirt after posting an above par 79 (in a par 66) in last on the grass. Was close to par in four races at the route. Centeno has the return call. Casablanca Babe (6) takes the drop and is looking for first Tampa win, after three seconds in five starts. Had a great year in 2008. Girten-Drake/Teator are 4-8 ITM. Superfine Time (7) had best fig at the distance three back and had strong work on March 1st. Could pop again. Exacta Box 1,6 and Trifecta 1/7/6

4th – Contenders Only – Dixie Pipe (5) has been ITM in 13-17 since leaving oldtimer Carl J. Cooper’s barn a year ago (I ran into his niece at the track last week. She told me the 76 year old Cooper is well, but that he can no longer handle the physical demands of thoroughbred training.) Dale Bennett wins 40% with shorten ups and Bennett/ Ramgeet team are 23-36 ITM. Ningbo’s (4) last fig was in the zone, also shortens up today. Diligent Won (3) is 0-15 in 2008-2009 and only 2-31 lifetime at Tampa. Nothing to get excited about with Diligent Won. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas 5/2,3,10,11/4

5th – Contenders Only – Lakeside Run (8). Clement/Centeno are 9-11 ITM with 6 wins. Lakeside Run gets the key position in my wager here. Exacta Key Box 8/1,5 and Trifectas 1,5,8/8,9,10/1,5,9,10

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,6,11 and Trifectas 5,6,11/3,7,9/5,6,11

7th – Contenders Only – Mass (5) is 1-35 lifetime but with consistent figs that would best these 4 times out of 5. Was close at today’s distance last summer. KO’C/RoHo combo is 17-37 ITM. Lightly raced Moudy Blues (6) goes back to the route where he broke his maiden in the fall. Showed signs of life in last. Winless (0-58) trainer Donald Pittman detracts attention away from the virtues of Moudy Blues.The Key to Time (7) is sub-par but consistent. Rockon Rockoff (8) was out of the money in seven starts on the dirt. Exacta Box 5,6,7 and Trifectas 5,6,7/2,8/5,6,7

8th – Contenders Only – Eldoktori (8) went the last three panels in an average of 11.80 per in last. Shortens up today. Pecoraro won 24% with L1-3’s last two seasons and was 42% ITM on the grass during same period. Opportune Moment (9) is another shipper with good final fractions. Dale Bennett abandons his regular rider, Andrew Ramgeet for RoHo, one of Tampa’s best turf jockeys. Bennett wins 44% and is ITM 78% with L1-3 + S + Up in Class runners. Win (8), Saver Exacta 9/8 and Trifectas 8,9/3,4,7,13/8,9

9th – Contenders Only – Roboponi (7) was entered at the $5000 level once, where he trounced them at today’s distance. Every start at Tampa has been above par. Had a great year as a 3YO and winning ways will continue. Exacta Key Box 7/4,6 and Trifectas 7/8/2,3,4,6

10th – Contenders Only – Sweetsformyhoney (9) showed good early speed in 2YO season. Any further development in last eight months and she should put these away. Jurgens/Krueger rings a bell in Johnny B’s memory bank of victories from the distant past. Exacta Key 9/4,5,11 and Trifectas 9/All/4

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/03/09

2009-03-01T16:10:00.016-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-53(30%) -$16.60 (16-13-5) (64% ITM)

On Sunday, my soft wager in the 9th, Cardinal Nation, was second.
Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $12 exacta box returned $13.60,
I had the winner of the 3rd, Regwell, $3.40,
I had the winner of the 4th, What's the Deal, $6.60,
My 8th race $36 trifecta wager returned $140.00, and
I had the winner of the 10th, Biblionico, $8.00. So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – She’s On Fire (6) has had two wins and a second in four starts at the open $5000 level lifetime, ditto for She’s Due for One(4), who has a win and a third in two tries this level. The former has consistently raced with better and had five wins against those. Banyan Tree (1). Her 4YO figs say she can compete at this higher level and this lightly raced filly has been handled with care by Zwiesler. Zwiesler/Montalvo team is 13-19 ITM. Banyan Tree will have to overcome the inside post position, as PP’s 1 & 2 have won less than ½ their fair share of races in the past month. Exacta Key 6/4,7 and Trifectas 6/1/All.

2nd – Contenders Only – Special Jak (7) drops to rock bottom for Fontana after racing close to par at the distance three back. Switches to a leading jockey, Mike Allen, to bring it home. The stretchout, Monday Morning (9) has %E that is outside the upper limit for 8.5F. Win (7), Saver Exacta 2/7 and Trifectas 7/2,3,4/2,3,4

3rd – Contenders Only – Tabouli (8). LA Gonzalez sticks with this twice beaten favorite and he will keep Tabouli closer to the early leader today. Was gaining late in last. Diablo’s Got Back (9) early pace improves with each start and it looks like he’ll have it his own way up front again this afternoon. Exacta Box 8,9 and Trifectas 8,9/3,4,10/8,9

4th - Contenders Only – Stepaside Girls (3) had above par fig in winning last, but Behrens wins 0% rightback and 3% fastback in last two seasons at Tampa. Repeat doesn’t appear likely. Seed of Faith (1) is handicapped by the inside post. Exacta Box 4,5,9 and Trifectas 4,5,9/1,3/4,5,9

5th – Contenders Only – Awesome Charlie (8) and Canadian Jade (11) have satisfactory final fractions. FTS Bermuda (6) goes for Clement, who has two wins and a second in last three starts. Centeno is up. Prince Repent (5) comes back fast for Allen, who has good success with fastbacks and Dirt-to-Turf types. Dam has three turf winners from eight starters. Exacta Key Box 8/5,6 and Trifectas 5,9,11/6,8/5,6,8,9,11

6th – Contenders Only – Poundcake (4). Ridden out in last, an above par win. Griffith has great record when bringing them back fast. Poundcake is 75% ITM at Tampa and Griffith/Montalvo team is 27-46 ITM this season. Disbelief (7) drops to this level for the first time. Had great run last year and is 9-20 ITM at Tampa lifetime. Pyschic Star (2) has never won two in a row. Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,5,/4,5,7,8/4,5,7,8

7th – A prime wager, Gesundheit (6). Great efforts with fast early fractions in both grass starts. Gets right back to winning form today. Manning is 3-7 on the turf this year. Manning was 27% win and 50% ITM on grass last two seasons. Leading rider Daniel Centeno is in the irons. Win (6), Saver Exacta 1/6 and Trifectas 6/1,5,9,13/1,5,9,13

8th – Contenders Only – Victoria Bay (3) was above par in Tampa debut and was above par in eight of last ten. Stretchout not a problem. Win (3), Saver Exactas 6,9/3 and Trifectas 3/6,9/2,5,6,9,11

9th – Contenders Only – Avoid Acqua Azul (7). McBride loses 97% off the claim and 97% going up in class. Trifecta Box 2,3,5,8

10th – Contenders Only – Numero Uno Lady (1) threw one bad one in last at 1-5. I have only one explanation. The moon was full. It screws up people, why not horses? Today we're looking at a waxing crescent. Should not pose a problem. Still has the undesirable inside post, but adds Centeno. Highlite Girl (9). McCooey was ITM 60% of the time with long layoffs in last two seasons. Stats payoff. Exacta Box 1,9 and Trifectas 1,9/2,6/1,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 03/01/09

2009-02-28T16:06:00.006-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-52(31%) -$14.60 (16-12-5) (63% ITM)

On Saturday, my soft wager in the 6th, Mac Speed, closed with a rush but was too late and had to settle for third. Among my contenders only selections, my 9th race $4 trifecta returned $56.20. Mercifully, my 3rd race wager was scratched. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – Multiphone (5). Red hot Ziadie wins 36% with Fastbacks (73% ITM) and wins 25% with Route-to-Sprints (75% ITM). Five of Multiphone’s six ITM’s were in sprints. First Pegasus (4). If he’s still the same horse two years later, he wins. Cattleman (6) has improved with each start and last fig was best among recent starters, but a 6YO maiden? Exacta Box 4,5,6 and Trifectas 4,5,6/1,3,8/4,5,6

2nd – Contenders Only – Many Mesas (6) was outkicked in last and comes back fast for Girten-Drake. The Girten-Drake/Teator team is 50% ITM. Shortens up today for the win. Exacta Key Box 6/2,8,10

3rd – Contenders Only – Mandu Genius (8) is always trying (LT 26 7-8-0). Had above par fig two back. Has not won off layoff in two career attempts. Regwell (9) was above par in two of last three. Ness is in 48% of all the exactas in which he has a starter. Win (9) and Trifectas 3,4,5,7,8/9/3,4,5,7,8

4th – Contenders Only – What’s the Deal (11) is the only 3YO in the field to race at par and that was two back. Takes big drop, shortens up, and adds blinkers. Win (11) and Trifectas 3,8,9,12/11/3,8,9,12

5th – Contenders Only – This race is wide open. Golden Deeds (8) gets the key position in my exacta box in this race. Goes for Graham Motion who is 75% ITM with Dirt-to-Turfs, 57% ITM with Layoffs. He is also 63% ITM in the last two seasons for owners Pin Oak Stable. Chicalelee (2). Clement has most turf winners this season, 6 for 13 (46% Win). I propose Exacta Key Box 8/4,7,13 and Trifectas 2,8,13/4,7,8/4,7,8

6th – Contenders Only – Skip the Flip (3) takes a big drop for Behrens and could return to the winner’s circle for third time in seven races. However, Behrens wins only 3% with fastbacks. Rue D’Argent (4) was ITM in 13 of 22 lifetime and had a great year in 2008. Was 2nd best in last. Cibelli Gonzalez team is 50% ITM this season. Old City Bar (5) is another that’s in the money often, won last, and Ness is hard to leave out. Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 3,9,12/4,5/3,4,5,9,12

7th – Contenders Only – Feastorfamine (3) goes for Ziadie, who is 9-23 (39%) on the grass this season and Ziadie/Homeister team is 31-43 (72%) ITM, but Feastorfamine was sub-par in last two and appears likely to be outgunned today. Exacta Box 1,10,11 and Trifectas 1,10,11/8,13,14/1,3,8,10,11

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 6,7,8/1,2,5/6,7,8

9th – A soft wager, Cardinal Nation (2).Was close to par at 12F after steadying in the final turn in last. Oliver always has serious intentions at Tampa and is looking for smallest purse on the grass yet for Cardinal Nation. Oliver was 25% win and 75% ITM in last two seasons at the Downs. Red hot Centeno is in the irons. Watch out for those mad bombers Rhone and Bramante. Win (2), Saver Exacta 7/2 and Trifectas 2/5,7,8,9/5,7,8,9

10th – Contenders Only – Biblionico (4). Big fig in maiden victory. Trounced in stake, back to earth now. Ziadie was 6 for 11 with L4-8’s in the last two seasons. He brings’em back ready. Promise Me Merlot (5) takes a sensible drop after racing well with better. Win (4), Saver Exacta 5/4 and Trifectas 4,5/3,6,11/3,4,5,6,11

11th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,7 and Trifectas 7/3,4,5/3,4,5,11,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/28/09

2009-02-27T15:57:00.009-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-51(31%) -$12.60 (16-12-4) (63% ITM)

On Friday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 6th race $8 exacta key box returned $19.00, my 8th race $2 saver exacta returned $11.80 and my 9th race $16 trifecta returned $96.00. So it goes...

Saturday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Romagnola (4). Her DRF Beyer in last is 44. Johnny B. has a 29. Romagnola put up the only negative variant,
a -10, on a day when all the other dirt races had + variants, and the variant for the day was +5. On that basis, I’m throwing out, Romagnola and anybody else entered in that last race. That eliminates the 2,3,4,5,& 7. Forgiveandforget (6) last two were above par and Artz has a high ITM % with fastback types. Magical Isis (8) was above par in sprint two back and %E in that race indicated that she would have no problem stretching out to 8.18F. CJ’s Nannie was also above par in last two at the route. Exacta Key Box 6/8,9 and Trifectas 6/1,2,7,11,12/8,9

2nd – Contenders Only – Western Night (4) is in condition and may have the front to himself again. Arterburn is ITM 13 of 21 this season. Western Night is 9 of 13 ITM at Tam lifetime. Blazing Prize (2) drew off in last with sub-par fig. Allen wins 24% with fastbacks and 36% with rightbacks. I’m not enthusiastic. Soy Latino (3) lost momentum momentarily a furlong out then got through finishing powerfully and with plenty left to spare in last and with the only par fig in today’s race. Been away for 54 days though. Exacta Key Box 4/2,3 and Trifectas 3,4/1,6,8,9/2,3,4

3rd – Contenders Only – Rum Customer (3) was well above par in debut. Roho takes the return call. Tripstar (4) had sub-par debut and %E is near the upper parameter for 7F. Cape Marco (5) is well prepared for big effort first time out for Zito. He goes to one of the GP leaders Jermaine V. Bridgmohan to bring him home. Exacta Box 3,5 and Trifectas 3,5/4,7,8/3,5

4th – Contenders Only – Heat of the Night (8) was right there at 9F in last, an event that was originally scheduled for the grass. Just missed two back, with huge 11.34 final fraction at 8.5F on the turf. Roho takes the return call. Rebounded (4) has not had a firm course to race on since last April. Had great final fractions in those 3YO races. Is he still the same horse? Slomkowski is deadly with L4-8’s and Shippers. Win (8), Saver Exacta 4/8 and Trifectas 4,8/2,3,7/2,3,4,7,8

5th – Contenders Only – Ron’s Perennial (9) had two best figs among today’s starters and is very sharp now. Has no where to go but up. Premier Event (8) has beaten better than these and with superior figs. Early fractions in last on Feb. 12th at GP clearly indicate readiness this afternoon. Exacta Box 8,9 and Trifectas 8,9/1,2/1,2,3,8,9

6th – A soft wager – Mac Speed (10) was beaten badly in last but still had the best final fraction among today’s starters. Two back she was sub-12, the only one in today’s race. Goes for last year’s #2 trainer on the grass K O’Connell. Win (10), Saver Exacta 4,5/10 and Trifectas 10/All/5

7th – Contenders Only – Proud Style (2) had %E in debut that was outside the upper parameter for today’s 8.5F race and sub-par fig is discounted after he drew off. Exacta Key Box 7/1,3

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Trifectas 3/All/2,8

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta 9/5, Saver Exacta 5/9 and Trifectas 9/2,3/5

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 9,11/2,7 and Trifectas 9,11/1,2,4,5,8/2,7,9,11

11th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,6/4,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/27/09

2009-02-26T16:21:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-51(31%) -$12.60 (16-12-4) (63% ITM)

On Thursday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 1st race $8 exacta key box returned $22.60,
My 3rd race $2 saver exacta returned $11.20,
My 6th race $12 exacta key box returned $17.60,
My 8th race $12 exacta box returned $89.40 and
My 9th race $12 trifecta returned $97.00.

So it goes...

Friday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Miss Firecat (6) has been sub-par but respectable and hits rock bottom today. Will be chasing Mail Chick Denise (9) and should have enough left for the drive. Why Because (7) was closest to par than the rest of these three back and returns to a sprint. Fontana has the Jockey Switch + Distance Change angle going with Rocky Miswaki (4), might wake up. Exacta Key Box 6/7,9 and Trifectas 3,6/3,6,7,9/3,4,6,7,9

2nd – Contenders Only – Aliquot (7) was taken up at the start and chased the field from the caboose throughout, yet somehow managed to finish three lengths behind 2-1 ML Brave Troy. Won’t be 100-1 today. Bombs away Bernard! Exacta Key Box 7/4,6 and Trifectas 4,7/1,2,8,9,10/4,7

3rd – Contenders Only – Between Us (5) is likely to have insurmountable lead after a half mile. Dale Bennett wins 35% Rightback, 26% Up in Class, and 20% Fastback (with 60% ITM). Looks like a winner again today. Win (5) and Saver Exactas 1,3,7/5

4th – Contenders Only – Lyka Card Shark (10). Is very sharp now and faces softer today. Ness is 38% win (73% ITM) with shortenups and 32% win (79% ITM) with fastbacks. Win (10), Saver Exacta 8/10 and Trifectas 10/1,3,4,6,7/8

5th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 2/4,9,13 and Trifectas 2/3,6,7,10/4,9,13

6th – Contenders Only – Mahvelous Bert (6) went well in first for new trainer Matty Pecoraro and Centeno stays with him. Great work four days ago. Everblazing (11) had respectable fig in last and comes back fast and shortens up. Fontana switches to a leader, a positive sign. Mike’s Classic (2) has not been in the winner’s circle since 2006, but had two seconds since November. Exacta Key Box 6/2,11 and Trifectas 6,11/3,4,5,7/2,6,11

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,5,9 and DD Wheel All/2

8th – Contenders Only - Esperanza d'Oro (2) broke slow and steadied at the break, was six back on the turn, then made a huge move in the turn and the stretch to win impressively in debut. A better trip today ensures win number two. Win (2) and Saver Exactas 7/2 and Trifectas All/2/7

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,11 and Trifectas 4/7,8/2,6,9,10

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,6,11

11th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 6/7,8,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/26/09

2009-02-24T16:40:00.003-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....16-51(31%) -$12.60 (16-12-4) (63% ITM)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 7th, Sword Play, won and paid $3.60. Also in that race, my $32 trifecta returned $35.40. Among my contenders only selections, my 1st race $4 exacta box returned $25.60, my 3rd race $12 exacta wager returned $9.80, and my 5th race $16 trifecta returned $57.60. So it goes...

Thursday’s Selections:

Contenders Only – Speed and Pace figs give the nod to Grandeza (2) who shortens up and drops down today for David Fawkes. Wesley is 10-15 ITM this season at Tampa. Exacta Key Box 2/3,8 and Trifectas 2,3,8/5,9/2,3,8

2nd – Contenders Only – Sweetsoutherndance (3) had once over sprint after being away since the end of last year’s Tampa season and may not be anything to get excited about but may offer more promise than the rest of these. Valid Cureincy (1) and Mutliphone (9) were beaten favorites twice and three times respectively and could not get it done in 25 races between them. Exacta Key 3/1,9 and Trifectas 3/2,4,7/1,9

3rd – Contenders Only – Samy Good Luck (5) takes a logical drop after racing respectably in higher class levels. Today’s drop is from a par 72 to a par 68. Was above par two back and disappointed in last. Another chance. Win (5), Saver Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas 5/2,7/4

4th – Contenders Only – Dontlaffhespaidfor (9) was close to par in last, more than any of these can say. %E is ideal for today’s 7F distance. Rollin the Dice (1) is a presser type and Centeno will try to find away around the bias that’s been hurting the insiders lately. Hungarian Gent (5) is sub-par but reliable. Win (9), Saver Exacta 1/9 and Trifectas 9/1,5/1,5

5th – Contenders Only – Wonderful’n Wild (4) earns the key spot in my exacta box after 11.80 final fraction in last. Exacta Key Box 4/2,9

6th – Contenders Only – Scooter Roach (8). Ness won 61% with L1-3 + S + Dropdowns last two seasons and Ness/Centeno team is 25/34 ITM. Stephen’s Gold (5) had best fig in last for Tampa veteran Emanuel Tortora, but he wins rightback only 5% of the time. Bello Pappa (7) is an above par dueler that may be waking up, but Pittman wins only 3% when going up in class. Quite the Guy (4) takes a minor drop for the Allen’s and we haven’t seen his best yet this year. Exacta Key Box 8/4,5,7 and Trifectas 4,8/5,7/1,2,3,6

7th- Contenders Only – Depends on who goes, but wager that appears scratch proof has Wildalana (2) with sub-12 final fraction in last on grass over La Corredora (4), also with a sub-12 final fraction two back at today’s distance, with the AE’s. Exacta Key Box 2/4,12,13,14 and Trifectas 2,12,13,14/All/2,4

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,2,3 and Trifectas 5,10/1,2,3/1,2,3,5,10

9th – Contenders Only – Bridled Quest (1) won after 35 day layoff at Tampa in December 2007. Shipped from CRC in that one. Monstrous work on 2/10 was 4 clicks above par for bullets at 4F. Bridled Quest is 4-6 ITM at Tam and has a nice clean record. Cataldi will be going for the win. Ness is 38% win and 67% ITM with rightbacks, can’t be denied. Syncopation (5) is always close to the early pace and will have something left in the drive. Exacta Key Box 1/3,5 and Trifectas 1,3/All/1,3,5 and DD 1/All

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,12 and Trifectas 3,6,7,8/5,12/5,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/24/09

2009-02-23T07:54:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.12-30 (40%) -$10.40(12-3-6) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....15-50(30%) -$14.20 (15-12-4) (62% ITM)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 6th, Rubaiyat won by a big margin and paid $3.20. My soft wager in the 8th, Fortunate Trail was 2nd in a photo. Among my contenders only selections, half of my 3rd race exacta wager scratched, but the one that went won and paid $4.40. My 4th race $12 exacta key box returned $42.00, my 6th race $8 exacta key box returned $29.80 and my 7th race $4 exacta box returned $19.40. So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Shore Breeze Hero (2) was above par in 4 of last 5, including last race and was first or second in 8 of 10 lifetime. Mark Me (7) has the tell-tale signs of a Fontana bomb, the distance change and jockey switch combo. Gerry Bennett (L’s Lightning) was only 5% win and 15% ITM with shortening up horses in last two seasons. Exacta Box 2,7 and DD 2,7/4,5

2nd – Contenders Only – Celebration Dance (4) dueled for 5F in first after the long layoff and Scace is 40% win and 60% ITM with 2L4-8’s. Nina’s Gift (5) shortens up after earning the two best figs at Tampa among these. Behave (1) is hampered by PP 1. Exacta 4/5 and Trifectas All/4/1,5

3rd – Contenders Only – My Maracas Bay (2) was closest to par than any of these in last and McCarthy goes to Centeno to bring home her new charge. Exacta Key Box 2/3,5,7

4th – Contenders Only – Stop the Drama (8) dueled and came again to get the place in last with above par fig. Tony Wilson is 40% win and 60% ITM with fastbacks. Exacta Key Box 8/2,6,7

5th- Contenders Only – Kings Highway (8) had 11.55 final fraction in last for 68K purse at WO. Has been working well for return. Gets RoHo. Runaway Sun (5) another sub-12 final fraction performer, made a middle move first time over and stayed behind a wall of horses near the end of the second turn, could have gone the overland route. Tapped the accelerater to ensure the show. Delacour adds blinkers. Scorpion Strike (2) %E in debut was well outside the upper parameter for today’s distance. Dam has a turf winner. Goes for hot trainer and hot jockey. Exacta Box 5,8 and Trifectas 5,8/2,3,7,9/5,8

6th – Contenders Only – Mr. Georges Dream (3) is another with %E well outside the upper limit for 8.5F. Exacta Box 4,8 and Trifectas 4,8/6,9,10/3,4,8

7th – Contenders Only – See I A (1) will make for a hot early pace that the other E/P types will not be able to stay with. Benefits on rail and with speed friendly turf course.
Exacta Key Box 1/3,8 and Trifectas 1/4,5,6,9/3,8

8th – A soft wager, Sword Play (6). Very close to par in first at 6F. Likely to see further improvement today. Griffith/Montalvo team is 27-46 ITM. Excellent work three days ago. Win (6), Saver Exacta 9/6 and Trifectas 6/4,5,7,9/4,5,7,9

9th – Contenders Only – Azura (7) returns to 6F on the dirt after racing impressively in all four lifetime starts. Lightning fast workout from the gate on 1/31 says “I’m ready to Sprint”. Gerry Bennett has a $0.00 ROI off the claim in last two seasons, but does have a 56% ITM in first three off claim. Exacta Key Box 7/1,4 and Trifectas 1,2,7/4,5/1,2,7

10th – Contenders Only – There are only a few that will be able to handle the fast early pace that’s likely to go down here. Exacta Box 1,4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/1,4,6,7/1,4,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/22/09

2009-02-21T17:40:00.006-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....15-49(31%) -$12.20 (15-11-4) (61% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 5th race $8 exacta key box returned $29.80, my 7th race $8 exacta key box returned $19.80 and I had the winner of the 11th, Sami's Majic, $7.60. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Ella Bee (1) has % early energy distribution that says the filly may be ideally suited to go longer. Exacta Box 1/All (if the price is right).

2nd – Contenders Only – Alie’s Doublecross (6) was above par in last two and takes a minor drop to get it done. Call On Joshua (3) has ideal early energy distribution to go back to 6.5F, but has all sub-par figs. On the other hand, Fontana is the master of disguise. You decide. Exacta Key Box 6/7,8 and Trifectas 3,6/1,2,7,8/3,6

3rd – Contenders Only – My calculator is getting a workout this morning. Jenna Lu Hu (8) has an early energy distribution that indicates that she could go 8.18F, but it is at the inside edge of the upper parameter. Was above par in last and that was only five days ago. Gets extra points for being in condition. Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/All/7,8

4th – Contenders Only – Lightly raced Snow Salt (6) gets the nod on likelihood that he will get the front again and have it all to himself throughout. 7-11 ITM. Bennett/Mata team is 10-18 ITM. Exacta Key Box 6/1,4,7

5th – Contenders Only – Gnightsweetdarlin (6) was above par in 5 of 8 lifetime. Weakened in final furlong in last. Bound to improve. Slomkowski is 83% with fastback types. Centeno has the return call. Soaring Storm (5). Cibelli is always dangerous with Up In Class and Shippers. Had great work three days ago. Appenzell (4) is in condition and must be considered a contender. Exacta Key Box 6/4,5 and Trifectas 5,6/3,4,8/5,6

6th – A prime wager, Rubaiyat (10). Drew off smartly in debut at Tampa and with an above par fig. Routinely races with sub-12 final fractions. Nowhere to go but up for Clement and Centeno. Mass (5) had sub-12 final fraction in last and goes for KO’C who is great with grass horses. Roho gets the call. 1-34 lifetime record is a problem. Pop Panebianco (7) had above par fig in last and can’t be left out. Win (10) and Trifectas 10/5,7/All and DD’s 10/1

7th – Contenders Only - Crusader Rabbit (1) always above par at the distance and close up at the finish, gets there against a soft field this afternoon. Would be a soft wager, if not for Gerry Bennett’s 33% record in last two seasons going Turf-to-Dirt. Exacta Box 1,2 and Trifectas 1,2/All/1,2

8th – A soft wager - Fortunate Trail (6) was close to par in last and is routinely at or above par. Is 7-13 ITM at Tam. Ziadie/Homeister are 17-39 in the win department. Sneak a Cold Treat (4) has a nice clean record and had the 2nd best fig in last. Very Capo (3) won two sprints on the dirt and is in the hands of the wizard, Jamie Ness who is in 47% of all the exactas in which he has a starter. Last fig was soft for the 8.18F though. Win (6) and Excata Box 4,6 and Trifectas 6/All/3,4

9th – Contenders Only – Tip Along (1) won 38% of all her starts last year, made a good effort in last. Is poised to begin another winning campaign. Tarva (2) had a good fig in last but it’s got to be discounted given the margin of victory. Silkily (3) is 44% ITM lifetime and made good effort in last despite bobbling at the start. RoHo rides for Pablo Andrade who batted .250 in 2008 and has good success going Sprint-to-Route. Exacta Key Box 1/2,3

10th - Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/1,7,10 and Trifectas 4,7,10/1,5,9/1,4,7,10

11th – Contenders Only – Hitch Your Wagon (3) is the only horse to show anything close to par in the recent past and all bets must be centered around her. Eventful Halo (8). Scace was 33% win and 60% ITM with L4-8 + Dropdowns in the last two seasons. It is one of her modus operandi. Exacta Key Box 3/1,8 and Trifectas 38/1,2,6,9/3,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/21/09

2009-02-20T17:55:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....15-49(31%) -$12.20 (15-11-4) (61% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager, Poundcake, won easily and paid $7.00. Among my contenders only selections, my 8th race $12 exacta box returned $24.80. So it goes...

We are now 1/2 way through the season and after 78 $2 win wagers, my prime and soft wagers are behind a mere $23.80. The best is yet to come and I will end the season in the green, so stay with The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper.

Saturday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Truly Broadway (2) and Mis Max (7) both had above par figs in last and both have high ITM % on the dirt. They outclass these. Exacta Box 2,7 and Trifecta 2,7/4/2,7

2nd – Contenders Only – R True Lady (4) just missed in first after long layoff and figures to be right there again. Win (4) and Trifectas 1,5,6,12/4/1,5,6,12

3rd – Contenders Only – Ottasea (5) was at or above par in last two and worked for both of them. Comes back fast and shortens up 210 ft. today and that may make all the difference. Exacta Key Box 5/2,7 and Trifectas 5/1,9,10,11/2,7

4th – Contenders Only – Trifectas 4,5/All/4,5

5th – Contenders Only – Blazing Prize (6) had best fig of all of these in last. Last work was one click above par for 4F bullet works. Allen is 32% win and 52% with dropdowns. He is also OK with stretchouts. Exacta Key Box 6/5,7 and Trifectas 5,6,7/2,4/5,6,7

6th – Contenders Only – Been Awhile (8) had above par final fractions in first two and shortens up a handful of lengths this afternoon and the distance change could make all the difference in races where success is measured in noses, necks and heads. Win (8) and Saver Exactas 1,3,12/8

7th – Contenders Only – Scottish Mystery (8). Above par fig in last (and the only above par fig in the field) gives Scottish Mystery the key position in my exacta box in this race. Exacta Key Box 8/3,4. and Trifectas 3,4,8/5,7/3,4,8

8th – Contenders Only – Win (3) and Trifectas 3,7/3,7/1,2,5

9th – Contenders Only – Bohemian Dream (5) working extremely well for debut for red hot Zwiesler. Darn Straight (7) had close to par effort in first over for Ziadie, further improvement can be expected. Exacta Box 5,7 and Trifectas 5/7/2,4,8,10

10th – Contenders Only – Lil’s Lassie (10). Sometimes one must let the conditions of the race dictate the handicapping methodology. Lil’s Lassie is a perfect fit here. Exacta Key 10/1,3 and Trifectas 10/5,8,9/1,3 and DD 10/10

11th – Contenders Only – Sami’s Magic (10) possesses the early speed to get the front and stay and shortens up today for new trainer Chris Gatis. Win (10) and Trifectas 1,4,6,7/10,12/1,4,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02-20-09

2009-02-19T18:33:00.006-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....14-48(29%) -$17.20 (14-11-4) (60% ITM)

On Thursday, my soft selection in the 2nd, I Love To Say Yes was second best at $4.20-1, but my $8 exacta key box in that race returned $36.80. My soft wager in the 5th, Heat of the Night finished second in a race that was taken off the grass. Among my contenders only selections, my 6th race $28.00 trifecta returned $35.00 after a Dead Heat for second. A couple of my wagers were cancelled by scratches and there were two wild long shots today. So it goes...

Friday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – Wynn’s Wild Flower (6) only has to be rated well to get to the winner’s circle against these. Showed good early pace in debut and decent finishing ability in next two. Maybe Ronnie Allen can be the one to bring her home. Miz Kate Dovey (5). Slomkowski has no record with firsters to speak of, but Centeno takes the call. JP’s Hannah (8) hesitated at the break, then got to the front with a rush and shortens up today. Comes back in six days. Exacta Key Box 6/5,8

2nd – Contenders Only – I’m A Tigger Too (3). Has demonstrated some ability to be up close at the middle distances and drops close to the bottom for the first time.Exacta Key Box 3/5,8 and Trifectas 3/All/5,8

3rd - Contenders Only – Rumored Heart (2). Slomkowski is 44% Route-to-Sprint and 38% with Shippers. Has been successful going Turf to Dirt. Have to trust the stats sometimes. (Gerry Bennett on the other hand does not have a lot of success with long Layoffs or Shippers, so I’m a little surprised at the 9-5 ML for Thunder Cannon (3). Exacta Box 2,5,7 and Trifectas 2/All/5,7

4th – A soft wager, Poundcake (10) figs are improving with each start. Was eased near the wire after ensuring the place in last. Is 11-15 ITM at Tam. Sir Swervalot (6) doesn’t add up. Why drop a confirmed 16K turfer to rock bottom claiming on the dirt? Ness uses Ronnie Allen Jr and HVG when he’s trying. Races every couple of weeks and now he’s been away 33 days. Ningbo (7) was going well when a rival stumbled into him, taking him out of the race. Poundcake (10) Across-The-Board.

5th – Contenders Only – Trifectas 4,6/7,8/7,8 and Saver Exactas 7,8/4

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 9,12 or Exacta Key Box 9/1,3,7 (if the 12 does not draw in) and Trifectas 1,3,7/9,12/1,3,4,7,8

7th – Contenders Only - Intrepid Inspector (11) improved in second race over the Tam surface. MVP Grand (4). Races three and four back were above par but disappointed in last as beaten favorite. Bucky Came Home (5). Pops on demand with above par figs for Sanders. Is he demanding this afternoon? Will Lucy get her first Tampa win? Exacta Key Box 11/4,5 and Trifectas 4,5,11/1,9,10/4,5,11.

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,4,9 and Trifectas 2,9/1,3,8/2,4,9

9th – Contenders Only –Exacta Key Box 7/1,5,10

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 3,12,13/9/10 and Trifectas 3,9,10/2,7,8/3,9,10

11th – Contenders Only – Supah Soup (1). Dale Bennett is 50% ITM with first three off the claim. Rightly Royal (6) has had a couple of blah sprints for bomb maker Bernell Rhone, wakes up today at the route. Florida Boy (8) vied inside in last, and is prone to sudden wakeup under Juan Camilo. Exacta Key Box 1/6,8 and Trifectas 1,6,8/9,11/1,6,8,9,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/19/09

2009-02-18T18:19:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....14-46(31%) -$13.20 (14-9-4) (59% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 1st race $12 exacta key box returned $150.00, my 8th race $6 saver exacta returned $28.20 and my 9th race $12 trifecta wager retuned $28.60. So it goes...

Thursday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3/6,11 and Trifectas 3/1,7,10,12/6,11

2nd – A soft wager, I Love to Say Yes (4). Fontana tried to steal last one at $12.40-1 when he moved this old mare way up in class (from a par 68 to a par 81) where she rushed to the lead and came up empty. With his cover now blown, he let her go 4F in 48 1/5 (three clicks above par for 4F bullets) four days ago. She comes back fast and drops down for the win. Fontana has a high win % at odds less than 5-2. Win (4), Exacta Box 4/3,7 and Trifectas 4/3,5,7/All

3rd – Contenders Only - Roundtripper (4). Shortens up today after showing good early speed in last three. An honest to goodness horse for the course at Tampa. Will wake up today and at a nice overlay. Roundtripper (4) across-the-board. Exacta Key Box 4/3,6 and Trifectas 3,4/6,10,11/3,4

4th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,6,9 and Trifectas 4,6,9/2,8/4,6,9

5th – A soft wager, Heat of the Night (7). A very reliable sort, ITM 8 of last 11. Had big final fraction of 11.34 in last at GP. 9F no problem. Larry Rivelli was 2-3 with Turf starters in last two seasons at Tampa. RoHo adds value. Win (7) and Exacta Key Box 7/8,9,14

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,8 and Trifectas 6/4,8/All

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7,11 and Trifectas 6,7,11/2,8,9/6,7,11

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,12 and Trifectas 1,12/2,3,4/2,3,4

9th – Contenders Only – Taylors Irish (6) was jostled at the break and forced to race laterally briefly, but recovered and finished well in debut. Centeno takes another bite at the apple. Exacta Box 1,6,7 and Trifectas 1,6,7/3,4,9/1,6,7

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,5/6,8 and Trifectas 4,5/4,5/2,6,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/18/09

2009-02-17T19:14:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....14-46(31%) -$13.20 (14-9-4) (59% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, I had the winner of the nightcap, Ryder Jax, who paid $3.00. In the other nine races, my selections either won or were ITM in every race, but nothing clicked for me today. So it goes…

Wednesday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Tenuous Tripp (2) is the only filly possessing both the forwardly racing running style and the figs (however sub-par they may be) to get home first. Exacta Key Box 2/1,6,10 and Trifectas 2/5,7,12/1,6,10

2nd - Contenders Only – Whatsuptiger (3) was close to par in second start for Rick Slomkowski who has 38% winners this season. Starship Sprinkles (8) debut was over at the break when she was bumped, pinched back and forced to the outside for racing room. Raced well following the bad start and was well backed in that one. Expect improvement today. Exacta Key Box 3/2,8,10 and Trifectas 8,12/3/2,10

3rd – Contenders Only – TT Gourmet (2) had best effort since breaking maiden in last. Between Us (5) fig in last on dirt was better than any of these. Bennett is 70% ITM with rightbacks and 68% ITM with stretchouts. Saucon Meadow (6) bet down in last four and couldn’t get it done. Switch to RoHo offers last chance for Saucon Meadow to get it done before I abandon her. Exacta Box 2,5,6 and Trifectas 2/1,4/5,6

4th – Contenders Only – Crazy Truth (6) has everything going for him. Already posted an above par fig at the route. Was repectable first time over in sprint on off track. Adds Lasix today. Carlos Montalvo has the return call. Ohnoitshimagain (4) and One Eyed Sailor (5) have energy distribution numbers that are towards the low end of the range for 8.18F, a good sign. Exacta Key Box 6/4,5 and Trifectas 6/2,3,7/4,5

5th – Contenders Only – Tarheel Gal (3), a confirmed marathon runner had a final fraction of 12 seconds in last at 10 furlongs. She fits well here and seeks smallest purse in her brief career. Exacta Key Box 3/1,7,8

6th – Contenders Only – Brooks Star (2) comes back to earth after facing tough SALW company in last, including Ruby’s Red Socks, Pirate King and Safe Play, winners of a combined 46 races between the three of them. Brooks Star is always trying and was very close to par two back. Many Mesas (6) last on off track is excused. Has already posted an above par win. Must have been shot from a cannon in 1/26 work, going the 4F from the gate in a full second above par for such works. Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2.6/All/2,6

7th – Contenders Only – A Curious Lady (4) was beaten by Taking Stock (6) six weeks ago, but came back two weeks later to just miss at today’s distance with a par performance. A Curious Lady is now 5-5 ITM at Tam. Cibelli/Lopez team is 3-5 ITM. Beautiful Rainbows (8) was beaten by Carolsbeentaukin (9) on 1/10 but Cibelli has had some time to work with her new charge and improvement is expected this afternoon. The Cibelli/Gonzalez team is 17-30 ITM. Repeating is not one of Granitz’s strong points. Exacta Key Box 4/6,8 and Trifectas 4,6,8/1,9/4,6,8

8th – Contenders Only – Sweet Apple Betty (2) was well above par at the distance in last and figures to continue improving but may struggle (along with Magna Heart) on the inside. Exacta Box 4,5,8 and Saver Exactas 2/4,5,8

9th – Contenders Only – Castles in the Sky was beaten by the classy Boots Are Walking ($374K LT) in last after that one was taken off the grass. Recent grass efforts have been extraordinary. Will be giving his all again today for Ness and Centeno. Exacta Key 8/3,11,12 and Trifectas 8/1,3,4/1,3,4

10th – Contenders Only – Glass Blower (4) was above par in 7 of last 10, Cruise lost Glass Blower to Andrade, claimed him back next time out. Noguera lost her bug on Glass Blower last summer, was in the irons in last at GP, and gets the call again today. Gravity brings Glass Blower back to earth after unwarranted attempt in N$Y. Mucho Dinero (11) has nowhere to go but up. Tricks of Glory (10), the veteran campaigner, was above par in last and still has it. An honest to goodness horse for the course. (Exacta Key Box 4/5,10,11 and Trifectas 4,11/3,5,10/4,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/17/09

2009-02-15T20:35:00.003-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....14-46(31%) -$13.20 (14-9-4) (59% ITM)

On Sunday, my soft selection in the 3rd, Screening Room, won handily and paid $3.40. Among my contenders only selections, my 4th race exacta box scratched and four of my exacta plays were foiled by longshots today. So it goes...

Tuesday’s selections:

1st - Contenders Only – Levy Light (7) won at this distance last spring at Tam and her figs are better than the rest of the bunch, except for Winterello (5), who has tried but never won at this distance. O’Connell/Homeister team is ITM ½ the time. Sweet Paprika (1) won two at today’s distance a year ago at Tam. The winner will come from within 2 ½ or 3 lengths at the 2nd Call. Exacta Box 7/1,4 and Trifectas 1,4,7/1,2,4,7/3,6

2nd – Contenders Only – Casino Carol (1) and Palace Charm (5) both leave open company with above par figs but neither seems to like to race forwardly. Stop N Gun (2) on the other hand was up close in sprint last time out and with a %E that is ideal for today’s race. Exacta Box 1,2,5

3rd – Contenders Only – Reason to Rejoice (9) has enough early speed to put these away and make it two in a row for new connections. Was above par in last and usually is. Gold Jolie (7) was above par in win at today’s distance two back. Buckler (12) is looking for first win of the season after being close up in last two. Exacta Key Box 9/7,12 and Trifectas 9/3,10,11/7,12

4th – Contenders Only – Early speed brings one of these home in front. Miss Firecat (8) looked good in debut, all downhill since. Had a very good work in the slop two weeks ago and drops today for Michael Thomas who worked magic with Dennis’s Dream last winter at Tampa. Exacta Box 5,8,12

5th – Contenders Only – Privy Seal (6) was boxed and blocked through the second turn to mid-stretch, altered course outside for clear racing room and closed fast to just miss in last, eleven days ago. Lots of speed here keeps Lucky Leo (10) from having an easy time of it. Chief Thief (4) takes big drop after two month layoff and poor showing first time over. Exacta Box 6/1,4,10 and Trifectas 1,6/4,5,7,9/1,6,10

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,6,9 and Trifectas 2,6/5,7,9,10/2,6,9

7th – Contenders Only – Tawnimara (5) above par in all three starts this season, shortens up this afternoon. Mystamy (3) has been right there in all three and will handle the incremental class increase. Exacta Box 3,5 and Trifectas 5/3,7,9,11/3,7,9,11

8th – Contenders Only – Gonna Blow (4) had best fig at the route on the dirt three back and loves to run at the Downs. Bomb maker Bramante already brought him home for $50.00 to win this season. He will try again today. Exacta Key Box 4/7,9,10

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/2,7,12 and Trifectas 4,12/5,6,10/2,7

10th – Contenders Only – Ryder Jax (9) was at or above par in 2 of 5 lifetime starts, bore out at the break in last and lost some ground in the process but still managed a par effort. O’Connell/Homeister team up for another winner. Win (9), Saver Exactas 2,8/9 and Trifectas 9/3,5/2,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/15/09

2009-02-15T07:53:00.003-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 3rd race $2 win bet returned $3.60.
My 4th race $12 trifecta wager returned $112.00.
My 7th race $16 trifecta wager returned $108.60.
My 11th race $4 exacta box returned $33.00.

So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Advice to Sinners (8) raced above par in previous two, shortens up today to get it finally done for Ness and HVG. Hopespringseternal (7) has the same story with somewhat softer figs all around. Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/3,6,9/3,7,8

2nd – Contenders Only – Trifecta 5,9/4,5,9/2,4,5,8,9 and Saver Exacta 4/5

3rd – A soft wager – Screening Room (8) Was above par in all three starts at Tam and gets a softer spot today. Switch to Centeno adds value. Win (8) and Trifectas 8/1,2,3,6/1,2,3,6

4th – Contenders Only – Honor the Angels (2). Gerry Bennett wins 25% (and is ITM 52%) with dropdowns at Tam, but here’s the kicker. Bennett is 70% ITM with fastbacks at Tam. Excellent work on 2/5. Switches to his go to rider Martinez. Lady Allegra (3) has strong early pace numbers and had been facing stiffer competition at CRC in the fall. Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/2,3,12/4,5,6,10

5th – Contenders Only – Sub-12 final fractions recently make 2,5 and 8 serious contenders. Exacta Box 2,5,8 and Saver Trifecta Box 2,5,8,12

6th – Contenders Only – Kinfolk Moonshine (3) was above par in last and shortens up this afternoon. Was second best in that one. Sourpower (7) had sub-par figs in last two but it’s hard to argue with a win and a second at the route. St. Blaine’s Quill (8) is perfectly suited to go Sprint-to-Route with early energy distribution numbers in last two of 53% and 52%. The zone for 8.18F is 51.76% - 53.68%. Exacta Box 3,7,8 and Trifectas 3,8/All/7

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,3,7 and Trifectas 2,3,7/5,8,10/2,3,7

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,5,10 and Trifectas 4,5,10/5,8,9/4,5,10

9th – Contenders Only – Stormy C’s (5) is a competitive 4yo filly who always gives her best. Was close to par at today’s distance in first try of season. Seed of Faith (7) was respectable in maiden win and could have the front to herself again. Exacta Key Box 5/1,7,8 and Trifectas 1,5,7/3,8/1,5,7

10th – Contenders Only – CJ’s Nannie (6). Her early energy distribution is right in the middle of the target zone for 6.5F. Has the preferred running style to win here too. Exacta Key Box 6/3,4,5 and Trifectas 3,6/4,5,7/3,4,6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/14/08

2009-02-14T08:17:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)

On Friday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 6th race $8 exacta box returned $19.20, my 7th race $34 trifecta wager returned $78.00 and my 10th race $8 exacta key box returned $30.80. I had 4 of 6 in my pick six wager. So it goes...

Saturday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Premier Take (9) is a late bloomer who was 10-22 ITM in 2008. Comes right back for Julie Luhr who engages Daniel Centeno to bring home another one. Several speedy types ensure an opportunity for another solid off-the-pace performance. Exacta Key Box 9/3,8 and Trifectas 9/4,6,12/3,8

2nd - Contenders Only - Jean the Queen (9). Really no excuse for failing as the favorite last time out. Previous two were very close to par. Centeno sticks. Trifectas 1,10/9/2,3,8.

3rd - Contenders Only - Conchacer (9) and for track announcer Richard Grunder I also provide the phonetic Kon Chaysir. Nobody botches horses names (or race calls for that matter) like Rich Grunder. You'll see he'll do it today. Anyway, Conchacer finished three lengths above par in debut. Has a bright future. Sundarban (2). Everything looks right, but why a $20K purse at Tampa for this one's debut. Leaves me with more questions then answers. Win (9) and Trifecta savers 2,9/2,9/All.

4th - Contenders Only - Old timer Otis Ridge (7) has still got it. Was 11-13 ITM in 08-09 for his biggest earning year ever. Put up an above par 88 in last (today's par is 82). Ziadie employs veteran Tampa jockey and #3 leading rider at Gulfstream Jose Lezcano this time to bring him home. Stumbling Block (8) is versatile and very consistent and it looks like Ness has found a good spot. Centeno tries to make it two in a row. Onotheregoestokyo (10) plays well with others, had only one back-to-back win in career, but put many of these away in last. Exacta Key Box 7/8,10 and Trifectas 7,8/1,9,10/7,8,10

5th - Contenders Only - A wide open race. Exacta Box 1,5 and Trifectas 1,5/2,3,9/2,3,4,9

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,7,8 and Trifectas 8/5,6,9/7,8,9

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,7,8 and Trifectas 2,7/1,4,6,8/2,7

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/2,6 and Trifectas 3,7/2,6,7/2,3,6,7

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 8/4,7 and Trifectas 8/5,10/1,4,7 and 1/8/4,5,7,10

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 5,7 and Trifectas 5,7/2,6,9/2.5,6,7,9

11th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1,4,7/3,4,5/1,4,7

12th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 9,12,13 Saver Exactas 4/9,12,13 and Trifectas 9,10,13/4,6,12/4,9,10,13

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/13/09

2009-02-12T17:19:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)

On Thursday, I had no soft or prime selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $8 exacta key box returned $35.00
My 5th race $8 exacta key box returned $30.00
My 5th race $42 trifecta wager returned $221.20
My 6th race $20 exacta key returned $28.00
Half of my 8th race exacta box scratched, but the half that went won and paid $10.80
My 10th race $4 exacta box returned $12.20.

So it goes...

Friday's selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Fear the Master (5) good early speed in last and folded in race that went in 83 (today’s par is 55). Was close at 4.5F as a 2YO. Behrens likes to pop when the price is right. Exacta Key Box 5/3,7 and DD 5/8 and Trifectas All/5/3,7

2nd – Contenders Only – Diablo’s Got Back (8) early speed improves with every start. The others that have started are all sub-par types. The first time starters are not promising at this rock bottom maiden claiming level. Exactas 8/1,2,3,4,5,6,10

3rd – Contenders Only – Magical Isis (5) shortens up after an above par win in last. Gerry Bennett is OK with right back types but only 5% with shorten ups. Ida Paquette’s star performer Ghazia (3) will certainly be trying again today. Last was par, but can she go another panel? Casual Friday (4) had huge work five days ago, back figs are better than all but Gaston A. (2). Exacta Key Box 5/2,3,7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/2,3,5/2,3,5,7,8

4th – Falcon’s Dream (9) is the only horse that we don’t have to make excuses for. Was close a couple of times. Put him away for six months. Comes back and just misses first time over. Sub-par in last, but so were all the rest. Exacta Box 9/3,6,10 and DDs 9/2,5,7

5th – Contenders Only – Djeddah (5) and Golden Wildcat (7) both finished very strongly in last with final fractions in the zone. Caravel (7) won last with sub-12 final fraction. Exacta Key Box 5/2,7 and Trifectas 5/7,8,10,11/2,7

6th – Contenders Only – Appenzell (7). Had the best fig after a layoff and figures to match or improve upon that one. Real Conquest (1) and Valentine’s Halo (2) have been respectable in their lightly raced careers, definitely contenders. Exacta Key Box 7/1,2 and Trifectas 7/6,9/1,2,6,9 and Pick 6 7/6,7/6,7,6,7/1/6,7

7th – Contenders Only – Smooth Tango (6) and Islandprospectrbob (7) have been earning honest par figs and both are win or place ½ the time. Rail hurts Shock N Storm (1). Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/3,5,8/1,3,5,8

8th – Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/4,5,6,9/4,6,7

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/4,8/5,6,7

10th – Contenders Only – Oculana (1) won under a brisk hand ride and with a final fraction of 11.64. Wow! Exacta Key Box 1/6,8 and Trifectas 1/All/6,8

11th – Contenders Only – Famous Frolic (6). McBride was 3-9 with L4-8 + S + Dropdowns. FF has performed at today’s level before. Working great for return. Goes (7) is ITM about half the time, will be trying again with Centeno in the irons. Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/2,11/2,6,7,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/12/09

2009-02-10T16:10:00.007-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers. Among my contenders only selections, my 2nd race $12 exacta key box returned $49.80. In the 6th, half of my exacta box scratched, but the other half went and paid $8.40 (Expect Validity). So it goes...

Thursday’s Selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Lil’s Glitter (11) was sideswiped at the break in last by Ryder Jax and could not possibly recover. Has the best fig in the field (two back), will be a sweet overlay today. Exacta Key Box 11/1,3,8,9 and DD 11/4

2nd – Contenders Only – Valid Cureincy (4) was above par in last, shortens up today, races forwardly and has very consistent pace and speed. Looks like graduation day. Full Rate (3) didn’t show much first time over, but previous three were close to par. Adds blinkers. Velez, who is finally waking up, has the return call. Stack Tour (5) had monstrous work at OTC two weeks ago, maybe Barbaran has gotten the bugs out. Has decent ITM record with first off intermediate layoffs. HVG gets the call. Exacta Key Box 4/3,5

3rd – Contenders Only – An interesting race with many one dimensional front runners. There is so much speed the race could fall apart. She’s On Fire (7) can come off the pace, was claimed by Girten-Drake who has waited 31 days to enter her new charge. Had an excellent work since. Exacta Key Box 7/3,4 and Trifectas All/3,4,7/3,4,7

4th - Contenders Only – Montalcino (12) is always knockin’ on the door and is 7-9 ITM at Tam. The beaten favorite in last finds herself in with a bunch of misfits today and should finally get win number two. Exacta 12/9 and Trifectas 12/2,3,7,9,11/9

5th – Contenders Only – He Struck It Rich (6) is the only horse in the race to ever have two par performances (including last). Has two seconds in three tries on the grass at Tam. Well backed in both starts this season. Mill Point (2) and Be Boppin Wynn (10) have both put up sub-12 final fractions two back and He Struck It Rich can’t say that. Exacta Key Box 6/2,10 and Trifectas 2,6,10/2,6,10/All

6th – Contenders Only – Strike It Ritz (7) all but last were above par, takes the drop for the win. Left Clement barn for Delacour who is having a good season. Have a long way to go to recover the $160K the Peachtree Stable paid for him. Exacta Key Box 7/1,2,3,4,5

7th – Contenders Only – Dale Bennett entry looks very tough here. Conchacer (1a) was four lengths above par in debut and was the favorite in that race. Shortens up today. Comitatus (1) had early speed in debut and also shortens up. Dale Bennett won 40% (10-25) with shorten up angle last two seasons. Also has high win % with layoffs. Conchacer would be a prime if it weren’t for He’s One For One (8) who chased in debut in August and went 3F in 37 breezing from the gate four days ago at Tam. Smock is 50% ITM with L4-8’s. Exacta Box 1a,8 and Trifectas 1a,8/All/1a,8

8th – Contenders Only – Rahoo (3) is in top form. My figs are 86-89-90 for last three, today’s par is about 70. Has never won at the route but if he can, the time is now. Mr. Easy E (4) came out of the same race as Rahoo, where he failed to menace, but he is better suited to today’s 8.18F distance. Greg Griffith has a good eye and won with Silver Peagus off the claim last year. Proud Diligence’s (6) last was above par. Can’t be left out. Fontana is an enigma. Comes back fast with Last Samurai (7) who won last out with an above par fig, but Fontana is 3% with fastback types. His other runner, Outshine (2) won at this distance a year ago at Tam in third start of the season. Shows little but can’t be ignored for a piece. Babo (8) was flying late in last. Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/2,6,7,8/3,4

9th - Contenders Only – Exacta Box 9/1,6 and Trifectas 1,6/All/9

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,9 and Saver Exactas 6/3,9 and Trifectas 3,9/1,5,6,8/3,8,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/10/08

2009-02-08T20:18:00.007-05:00

Prime Wager Results.11-29(38%) -$11.60(11-3-6) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....13-45(33%) -$14.60 (13-9-4) (58% ITM)

On Sunday, prime wager in the 6th, Avanti Avanti won handily and paid $3.60. I was 0-5 with my soft wagers, managing only a 2nd and two 3rds. Among my contenders only selections, my 10th race $20 trifecta wager clicked for $94.40. I lost three double digit horses (including Knockinelder $52.60 in the 8th) when my contenders only exactas failed to click on one end. So it goes…

Tuesday’s Selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 10/7,11 and Trifectas 7,10/2,11,12/7,10

2nd – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/6,8,12 and Exacta 4/2 and Trifectas 2,9,10/6,8,12/4

3rd – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7,8 and Trifectas 9/6,7,8/6,7,8

4th – Contenders Only – E Harner (2) has some good back figs and last was on a Good surface, but a 44 in a par 64? Granitz is 1-15 with fastback types. I can’t be enthusiastic about E Harner. Exacta Box 2,3,8 and Trifectas 2,3,8/6,7/2,3,8

5th – Contenders Only – Go Tebow Go, was a FTS turf winner at Tampa last month. His dam, Lady Buttercup is out of Meadowlake, the sire of Medowquest (6). Medowquest put up an above par effort as a FTS at 6.5F three weeks ago. Tries the grass today. Could pop. Sky Dancer (2) and Count de Baran (9) have final fractions that qualify them as contenders. Loose Goose (7) had a monstrous final fraction in last, 11.69, has all sub-par Beyers though. Exacta Box 2,6,9 and Trifectas 2,9/6,7,8/2,6,7,8,9

6th – Contenders Only – Juicy Point (7) takes a minor drop in class today and shortens up, trying to make it four in a row after racing well above par (with a 76) in last. Clearly the horse to beat. Expect Validity (8) the veteran campaigner faced very tough competition in starter race last time out at 7F. That one was won with a 92, with the seven panels going in 123.88. Expect Validity posted a 78 in that one, today’s par is 70. Ziadie/Homeister team looking for another victory. Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 7,8/3,4,5,6,9/3,4,7,8

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,7 and Trifectas 1,7/3/1,7

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/6,7,8/3,4

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/2,7,8,9/1,4

10th – Contenders Only – Gerry Bennett’s go to rider LA Gonzalez jumps off of Flying Palm (1) and onto Chromystic (8) whose figs are sub-par but reliable, in a race where there is really nothing to write home about. Chromystic is ITM ½ the time. Mahvelous Bert (3) has been claimed four times in the last year and is also very reliable. Switch to Centeno adds value. Exacta Box 3,8 and Trifectas 3,8/1,10,11,12/3,8,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/08/09

2009-02-07T17:55:00.002-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-28(36%) -$13.20(10-3-6) (68% ITM)
Soft Wager Results.....13-40(33%) -$4.60 (13-8-2) (58% ITM)

On Saturday, my soft wager, Dawn Raider was not ready after the layoff and was out of the money. Among my contenders only selections, my 4th race $32 trifecta wager returned $30 (it happens) and my 8th race $8 exacta key box returned $18.60. So it goes...

On Sunday, I've got one prime and five soft selections and that means I can do some serious gambling for a change.

Sunday's selections:

1st – A soft wager, Numero Uno Lady (4). Repeat of last trounces these, above par figs in 4 of 5 starts. Bennett/Mata team are 8-13 ITM this season. Banker’s Mistress (9) chases and then fades. Win (4) and Trifectas 4/3,5,7/3,5,7 and DD 4/10

2nd – A soft wager, Roundtripper (10) is rounding into form now, posts par figs when in condition and is a horse for the course with 18-25 ITM at Tam lifetime. Win (10), Exacta Key Box 10/9,12 and DD 10/9 and Saver Trifectas 9,12/2,3,4,6/9,10,12

3rd – A soft wager, Quaking Asp (9) was above par two back in a sprint and has established that he can go long. Was up close at finish in only Sprint-to-Route attempt. Proctor wins 43% with Non-shipping L1-3 + Distance Change angle and engages his go to rider Ronnie Allen Jr. Win (9).

4th – Contenders Only – Rare Ransom (9) raced above par in all three starts at Tampa and gained valuable racing experience in the process. Returns to 6F today where the lone sprinter with speed Goldzar (2) could run away with it. Exacta Key Box 9/2,10 Saver Exactas 6,7,8/9

5th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 2,4/1,6,7,8/2,4

6th – A prime wager, Avanti Avanti (5) comes out of key race where he finished ahead of Riversrunrylee and Pyrite Personal both of whom came back to win their next starts in ALW company. Two others in that key race, Fagedaboutit Sal and Dinner In Odem were also ITM next time out. Avanti Avanti put up a 99 in that race according to my figs and appears to be a couple of lengths better than these. Win (5).

7th – A soft wager, Arranger (2) hesitated at the break, made a big move on the turn and finished well but too late, in a race that went 19 above par in debut. Switch to RoHo seals it for me. She won 6 of 22 starts with Ritchey’s charges last season. Win (2)

8th – A soft wager, Dressed to Win (7). Went in 12 seconds/panel at 8F at Sar in the fall with a final fraction of 11.63. If she’s ready, she wins for Rice/Centeno. Win (7).

9th – Contenders Only – Great Squawk (6) takes a negative drop. Why enter for a tag after winning three in a row and having only one try in ALWN3X?. Badly beaten favorite in last and moves to McCarthy barn that was 2-95 with shippers last three seasons. Exacta Key Box 10/3,8,9 and DD 10/7

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/1,2,3,5,11/6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/07/09

2009-02-06T16:48:00.003-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-28(36%) -$13.20(10-3-6) (68% ITM)
Soft Wager Results.....13-39(33%) -$2.60 (13-8-2) (59% ITM)

On Friday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections, my 2nd race $36 trifecta play returned $91. So it goes...

Saturday's selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Precision Queen (7) best fig at the distance two back, showed early speed in wet route in last, returns to 7F today. Bea Precise (9) showed something at 7F on 12/26 and showed speed in both since then, first at the route and then in a sprint in the slop. Exacta 7,9 and Trifectas 7,9/1,4,6/6,7,9

2nd – Contenders Only – Waitingfor Tonight (12) had superior figs in 2007 at CRC, was above par in solitary 2008 start, then was claimed in first 2009 start and went off the favorite in that race and finished second with an above par fig. Throw out last on off track. Is likely to show further improvement today. R True Lady (8). Ziadie wins 56% and is ITM 89% with L4-8 + S types. Enough said. Mysteriousness (4) wakes up occasionally, has decent figs in first two starts of the season and is 44% ITM at Tam lifetime. Exacta Key Box 12/4,8 and Exacta 8/4 and Trifectas 8,12/1,5,11/4

3rd – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,6 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5,6

4th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,9 and Trifectas 2,9/3,10/2,3,6,9,10

5th – Contenders Only – Hungarian Gent (3) is ITM 4-8 lifetime and had a decent performance two back at the route. Sheds 10 lbs. today. Needs best effort to beat these. Exacta Key Box 3/4,6 and Trifectas 4,6/1,7/3

6th – A soft wager, Dawn Raider (10). His name is on the deed to the Tampa Bay course. He owns the place. Shortens up after posting superior middle fraction at 9F. Tiganello (5) had sub-12 final fraction in graded stake back in September. Last at FG was in the zone. Pyrite Personal (9) was way above today’s par in last and obviously is in great form. Exacta Box 9,10 and Trifectas 9,10/1,5,7,8/9,10 and Saver Trifecta 5/10/9

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,8 and Trifectas 1,10,11/4,8/1,4,8,10,11

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 9/10,11 and Trifectas 9/3,5,6,7,8/10

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,3,5 and Trifectas 2,3,5/1,8/2,3,5

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 5/3,7 and Trifectas 5/4,10/3,4,7,10

11th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,7,11 and Trifectas 2/3/6,7,10,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/06/09

2009-02-05T12:54:00.017-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-28(36%) -$13.20(10-3-6) (68% ITM)
Soft Wager Results.....13-39(33%) -$2.60 (13-8-2) (59% ITM)

On Thursday:

My prime wager in the 5th, Squires Wingman, had the lead and weakend late settling for third. My soft wager in the 9th, Fire Chief was well backed but finished out of the money.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 2nd race $8 exacta key box returned $46.80.
My 6th race $6 saver exacta wager returned $69.20.
My 7th race $8 exacta key box returned $125.40.

The best thing that happened yesterday was putting readers off the heavy favorites in both the 2nd and the 3rd. It's a great feeling when you're avoiding heavy favorites with conviction. So it goes...

Friday’s Selections:

1st - Contenders Only – Speed has been holding up at the route and Why Because (7) will be at or near the lead early. Nan’s Star (4) is a serious contender. She put up decent figs on the grass, takes the huge drop, and the Cibelli/LA Gonzalez team are 13-25 ITM this season. Exacta Box 4,7, and Trifectas 4,7/1,2,3,5,6/,4,7

2nd – Contenders Only – Pompano Beach Rose (8) races forwardly, was above par in last and shortens up today. Centeno has the return call for Jamie Ness. Multicard (3) Ziadie is 58% ITM with L1-3 + types and the Ziadie/Cardoso team is 7-10 ITM this season. Drop to $4000 in last doesn’t build confidence though. Timetolitethestar (5) was above par in last two at the route and showed dramatic improvement going Sprint-to-Route in December. Exacta Box 5,8 and Trifectas 3,5,8/2,3,7/3,5,8

3rd – Contenders Only – Hello Miss Lady (5) is usually close to the action at the 2nd Call and this is yet another route, where E/P’s have been winning everything. Was above par in last two on the grass. Had to wait for racing room inside in the stretch before finishing well in last. Exacta Key Box 5/1,2,4,6

4th – Contenders Only – Queen Maddie (6) was gaining late, and finished 2nd, with an above par effort at 6F in first start of her five year career at this $8000 level. Is 19-30 ITM lifetime. The Allen’s will be trying again. Exacta Box 6/1,2,4,9

5th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Saver Straight Exactas 3,5,8/7 and Trifectas 3,5,8/2,9/3,5,7,8

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta 7/2 and Trifectas 7/5,6/2,5,6

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,3,5 and Trifectas 3,5/4,8,9,12,13/1,9

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,7/2,8/2,4,7,8

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,5,8 and Trifectas 9/3,5,8,13/3,5,8,13

10th – Contenders Only – Whip the Groom (8). My figs have Whip the Groom as the most consistent of the bunch. Expect improvement in second try in N2L at the $8000 level. Exacta Key Box 8/1,6 and Trifectas 8/All/1,6

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.
www.thetbdhandicapper.com

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/05/09

2009-02-03T15:57:00.008-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-27(37%) -$11.20(10-3-5) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results.....13-38(34%) -$0.60 (13-8-2) (60% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft selections.

Among my contenders only selections:

My 2nd race $16 trifecta returned $74.00
My 4th race $20 trifecta returned $347.40
My 7th race $32 trifecta returned $289.60

So it goes...

Thursdays selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Clemson (1) was close to par in debut and surprised at 28-1 finishing 3rd. Adds L1 and loses 3lbs. Can he go longer? Will Dehn get second win of season? Terry D (3) was through early after setting a fast early pace, was beaten by 20 lengths and his fig for that race was still close to par. Arterburn is batting .380 this season. Win (3), Exacta Box 1,3 and Trifectas 3/All/1

2nd – Contenders Only – Algazara (4) ML 2-1. McCarthy is 2-95 with shippers at Tampa in the last three seasons. Looks good on paper, but I’m off Algazara. Exacta Key Box 2/1,5 and Trifectas 2,5/3,4,7,8/1,2,5

3rd – Contenders Only – Diligent Won (10) ML 2-1. Another top choice that doesn’t sit right with me. Diligent Won is 0-14 in 08-09 and 2-30 at Tam lifetime. I see the potential for a wild card here and I’m going with Hots is Hot (7) and Pyschic Star (9) based on sprinting records of the distant past. Exacta Box 7,9 and Trifectas All/7,9/7,9

4th – Contenders Only – Win (3), Exacta Key Box 3/1,4,7

5th – A prime wager, Squires Wingman (5).Drops to this level for the 1st time after racing above par in last five races. Has enough early speed to put these away. Win (5), Exacta Key Box 5/2,8 and Trifectas 1,2,4,9/5/1,2,4,7,8

6th – Contenders Only – Azura (7). Proctor wins 31% and is ITM 62% with L4-8’s. Monstrous work from the gate on 1/31 was four clicks above par for bullets (from the gate) and tells me Azura is ready to rock ‘n roll. Final fractions are all in the zone. Exacta Key Box 7/3,10, Saver Exactas 1,5,8/7 and Trifectas 3,10/1,5,8/7

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 4/5,8 and Trifectas 3,7/4,5,8/3,4,5,7,8

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key 2/7,11,13,14 and Trifectas 2/3,10,11/7,11,13,14

9th – A soft wager, Fire Chief (6). Rex Stokes is having a great season at Mnr and travels 1063 miles to ride the Fire Chief who broke his maiden with Stokes in the irons in October. Jake Secor was 6-19 in 2008. This one is seriously intended, no doubt. Win (6), Exacta Key Box 6/4,8 and Trifectas 6/1,5,7/1,4,5,7,8

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,7,10 and Trifectas 2,7,10/4,5/2,4,5,7,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/03/08

2009-02-01T15:23:00.008-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-27(37%) -$11.20(10-3-5) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results.....13-38(34%) -$0.60 (13-8-2) (60% ITM)

On Sunday, my soft wager in the 7th, Islandia, won with a rush and paid $4.40. Among my contenders only selections, my 2nd race $12 exacta box returned $27.20, my 3rd race $12 trifecta bet returned $155.60, my 6th race $4 exacta box returned $6. So it goes...

Tuesday’s Selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Zagomor (3) and Stag Runner (7) have shown early speed at 6F and 7F respectively. Patrick has gone to Macias to ride both of his winners this season. Speculator (10) has best figs has comes back fast for Criollo with HVG up. Exacta Box 3,7,10 and Trifectas 1,6,8/3,7,10/3,7,10

2nd – Contenders Only – Abercrombieandfish had an above par fig in last and shortens up today. Shane/Montalvo team are 6-6 ITM this season. Dixieland Drummer (5) usually races at or above par. Takes a drop after 7F tightener on 1/10. Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/1,6,9,10/4,5

3rd – Contenders Only – Silver Label (2) ML 30-1. Throw out first race because he needed an attitude adjustment that day. Next start, broke fast and raced forwardly early at 8.5F. Goes 6F today, where he won with an above par 75 (today’s par is 72) on Oct. 5th at MNR. Pittman has good success with Route-to-Sprints and Fastbacks. Glorious Sunrise (8) ML 20-1. Bramante’s jockey switch from Djuric to Ronnie Allen Jr. signals a change of intent. Exacta Box 2,8/3,5,6

4th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key 12/1,7,9,11 and Trifectas 12/All/11

5th – Contenders Only – Sunsational (1) usually above par and above par in last, Sunsational stretches out 210 feet for Chris Gatis and looks for another win. Five Card Monty (6). Charles Fontana employs one of the CRC leading jockeys, Wesley Henry Sr. looking for Five Card Monty’s third win in four races this afternoon. Wesley won on a William P White entry last week at Tampa. This one appears seriously meant as well. Last Samurai (8) posted a well above par effort while mildly rallying at 7F, first time over on 1/18. Team Feliciano figures to grab a piece of it this afternoon. Exacta Box 1,6,8 and Trifectas 1,6,8/3,5/1,3,5,6,8

6th – Contenders Only – Golden Citizen EK (8) finally won after being well backed in all three starts. I don’t like to go on a solitary performance, but the bullet work on 1/28 was three clicks above par for bullets at 3F (36.2). Dale Bennett wins 35% and ITM 70% rightback. Exacta Key 8/7,9 and Trifectas 8/3,6,7,9/3,6,7,9

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,4,6 and Trifectas 1,2,5,8/3,4/3,4,6

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,8,10 and Trifectas 4,8,10/5,9/4,8,10

9th – Contenders Only – Somes Sound (4) averaged better than 12.30 every furlong of the way in last at 9F. Shortens up today for White/Wesley team that produced a winner here last week. Never Absent (9) averaged 12.30 in last 3F of last, a win at Tampa, also shortens up today. Exacta Box 4,9,13,14 and Trifectas 1,2,3/4,9/4,9,13,14

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 10/4,6,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 02/01/09

2009-01-31T20:07:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.10-27(37%) -$11.20(10-3-5) (67% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....12-37(32%) -$3.00 (12-8-2) (59% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 4th, Great Southern Lady won and paid $3.80. Among my contenders only selections, my 6th race $12 trifecta wager returned $106.20 and my 8th race $12 exacta box returned $30.40. So it goes...

Sunday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only - Advice to Sinners (3) been improving in first two at TAM and has the best route fig in the bunch. Energy distribution in sprints indicates a desire to return to the route. Jewel Basin (6) races forwardly and figures to get a piece. Ditto for Hopespringseternal (10). Rocky Miswaki (9) finished 2nd in last but with an 18 in a par 52. Exacta Key Box 3/6,10 and Trifectas 3/All/6,10

2nd – Contenders Only – Dennis’s Dream (9) comes back in nine days after having two workout races (in five days). May be ready to display last years winning form. Angle of Attack (7) drops to the bottom on seven days rest and RoHo sticks. Ocean of Dreams (5) was gaining slowly at 6F and was close to par in that last race.Exacta Box 5,7,9 and Trifectas 2,3,9/5,7/2,3,5,7,9

3rd – Contenders Only – Itchy Toes (6). Most are above par. Slomkowski is 83% ITM with fastbacks and 38% Win and 63% ITM with Shippers. Centeno takes the call.Exacta Box 6/5,8 and Trifectas 2,6/3,8,5/3,8,5

4th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 8/9,12 and Trifectas All/8/9,12

5th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 9,11 and Trifectas 9,11/3,4,5/9,11

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 4,6 and Trifectas 4,6/2,3,5/4,6

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,3,6 and Trifectas All/1/3,6

8th – A soft wager, Islandia (7). Clement and Centeno team up with 2TS Islandia, who was well bet in debut and finished 2nd. In that race, State Treasure crossed over at the break exacerbating the fillies slow start, she was five wide on the first turn and four wide on the second turn, then she lost momentum again for a moment when Iguana Jo dropped over in front of her in the stretch run, after which she recovered and made a big push at the finish. Best final fraction of all. First time Lasix adds value. Win (7). Exacta Box 7,9 and Trifectas 7/9/5,6,8,14

9th – Contenders Only – Ransom Ridge (6) won a Route-to-Sprint & Turf-to-Dirt here at Tampa a year ago. Had big fig in last, despite being trounced. Exacta Box 6,9,11 and Trifectas 1,7/6,9,11/6,9,11

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,9 and Trifectas 2,9/3,5,6,11/2,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/31/09

2009-01-30T16:44:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.9-26(35%) -$13.00 (9-3-5) (65% ITM)
Soft Wager Results...12-37(32%) -$3.00 (12-8-2) (59% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager in the 3rd, Western Night, won on the off surface and paid $8.60. Among my contenders only selections, my 7th race $8 exacta key box clicked for $40.80 and my $36 trifecta wager returned $184.00. My 8th race $4 exacta box returned $38.60. So it goes…

Saturday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - If Saucon Meadow (5) doesn't stop she looks like a winner with above par efforts in previous two. Jackie B. Good (2) may break swiftly and keep going with Ronnie Allen Jr. in the irons. Trifecta Double Key 2/5/4,7,8 and Exactas 5/2,4,7,8

2nd - Contenders Only - Tape Deck (7). Only horse with a par fig in last race. 3-3 ITM. Can he go another furlong? Canadian Jade (11). Cibelli's record with maidens is laudable and she has a high ITM % with Turf to Dirt and Route to Sprint types. Exacta Key Box 7/1,6,11 and Trifecta Double Key 2/7,11/1,6,11

3rd - Contenders Only - Berkeley Square (2). This lightly raced 5YO gelding was above par first time over and Gerry Bennett is great with fastbacks (24% Win, 70% ITM) and Sprint to Routes (18% Win and 35% ITM). Gun It (4) was above par in 8 of last 10, except for last two over the Tam surface. McCooey wins only 3% with fastbacks and was 0-17 with shortenups in the last two seasons here at Tampa. Exacta Key Box 2/1,5 and Trifectas 2,4/1,2,4,5/1,5

4th - A prime wager, Great Southern Lady (10). Early Pace was more than one second above par in first start. Best fig among today's starters in last. Shortens up today for red hot Max Ubide who is 11-15 ITM at Tam this season including 4 wins. Could have a big lead at the 2nd Call. Looks like a winner this afternoon. Win (10).

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/1,2

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 7,10 and Trifectas 7,10/All/7,10

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,6 and Trifectas 1,6,7,8/3,6,7/3,6

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,6,9

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 10/8,11,13,14 (This race is OFF THE TURF!)

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/2,3,6,7/2,3,6,7

11th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 8/6,7,9 and Trifectas 1,3/8/6,7,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/30/09

2009-01-29T15:17:00.011-05:00

Prime Wager Results.9-26(35%) -$13.00 (9-3-5) (65% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....11-36(31%) -$9.60 (11-8-2) (58% ITM)

On Thursday, my soft wager, Juicy Loots, finished 3rd with no help from jockey Federico Mata, who spent most of the race worrying about who was behind him as he let Serene Spirit run away with it. Among my contenders only selections, my 8th race $4 exacta box returned $21.80. So it goes...

On Friday, they will be OFF THE TURF!

Friday’s Selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 7/3,5,9 and Trifectas 9/7/3,5,6

2nd – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,7 and Trifectas 7/2,5,10/2,5,6,10

3rd – FAST TRACK ONLY - A soft wager, Lyka Card Shark (2) is rounding into form and weakened in the stretch in last, takes a big drop from a par 82 to a par 75.The Dynamic Duo of Ness/Allen look very tough here. Lyka Card Shark can and will change running styles to get the job done. Third Dimension is one dimensional and I expect RoHo to be battling with Western Night on the front end throughout. Western Night (6) is all business and is 7-11 ITM at Tam with four wins at the Downs. Win (2), Saver Exacta Box 6/2 and Trifectas 2/All/6

3rd – OFF TRACK ONLY – A soft wager, Western Night (6). Romps in the rain. Won 4 of 9 (with 6 of 9 ITM) on off tracks including two at Tampa. Was my second choice on a fast track. Gets the edge if it’s wet. Win (6) and Saver Reverse Exacta Wheel All/6

4th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 8,10 and Trifectas 1,2,3,4,12/8,10/8,10

5th – Contenders Only - Win (1), Saver Exacta 6/1 and Trifecta All/1/6 (Off the Turf)

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,4,7

7th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 5/4,10 and Trifectas 5,10/4,5,6,10/4,5,6,10

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,2 and Saver Exactas 6/1,2

9th – Contenders Only - Win (7) and Exacta Key Box 7/3,5,10 (Off the Turf)

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,3,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/29/09

2009-01-27T13:15:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results.9-26(35%) -$13.00 (9-3-5) (65% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....11-35(31%) -$7.60 (11-8-1) (57% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime or soft wagers.

Among my contenders only selections:
My 2nd race $16 trifecta wager returned $272.60.
My 4th race $12 trifecta wager returned $239.80.
My 6th race $12 exacta box returned $14.20.
My 9th race $4 exacta box returned $10.00.

So it goes...

Note: In the last three seasons, the 2nd and 3rd choices in feature and Stakes races have had a positive ROI of $0.61 and $1.74 in straight exactas, respectively. To date this season, these 2nd and 3rd choice straight exactas are 0-25 in features and 0-7 in Stakes. Don’t miss the boat. Start playing (or at least considering) these straight exactas as they are overdue to start clicking.

Thursday’s selections:

1st – Contenders Only – My Belleman (4). Had best pace and speed and versus better at Churchill. Early Pace in last was well above par. Ryan is 64% ITM at odds <5-1. Jaunchon Jaunchon (2) comes back fast after close to par performance in last. Exacta box 2,4 and Trifecta 6/2,4/All

2nd – Contenders Only – E.F.F. Sher (7) should get another beneficial trip and shortens up today. Exacta Key Box 7/1,6 and Trifectas 4,5,7/4,5,7/1,6

3rd – Contenders Only – Proud Diligence (3) was outkicked in last by Unlimited Funds and was claimed by Greg Griffith who switches to his go to jockey Carlos Montalvo (11-16 ITM with Griffith’s charges). Unlimited Funds (6) is ITM about half the time and just hung versus Proud Diligence on Jan. 13th. Centeno gets the return ride. Exacta Box 3,6 and Trifectas 3,6,7/2,7,10/3,6,7

4th – Contenders Only – Tabouli (9). Despite variations in early pace, Tabouli gets to the wire with the best final figs. Was the beaten favorite in last. Another chance. Exacta Key Box 9/3,7 and Trifectas 9/1,4,6,8/3,7

5th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 10/1,3,9 and Trifectas 5,10/5,10/1,3,9

6th – Contenders Only – CJ’s Nannie (7) the obvious choice (but not 7-5) off near par performance in last. Kaelin/RD Allen Jr team 5-7 ITM this season. The real story here is Fontana with two going. The one with the ML of 2-1, I Love to Say Yes (5) is 2-61 lifetime and 0-7 at Tampa and has leading rider Daniel Centeno in the irons. The other, 20-1 Fluffy’s Girl (6) is 61% ITM at Tampa and 40% ITM overall lifetime and goes Sprint-to-Route where Fontana has much of his success. On top of that, she raced at or above par in most of her races last season at TAM. Is this a repeat of the African Angel/Tigerglider coup that Fontana pulled off on Jan.13th. I don’t know, but I’m willing to bet on it. If there is a rider change from Oro to a leader, I’ll be that much more enthusiastic. Tax Day Slew (3) won in October and did not show us her best first time over. Is 50% ITM in 14 starts. Exacta Key Box 6/3,5,7 , Trifectas 3,7/5/3,6,7 and Trifectas 2,4,8/3,6,7/3,6,7

7th – A soft wager, Juicy Loots (1). Juicy broke like the first time starting zebra in the motion picture “Racing Stripes” in last, then worked her a** off to get into the race but to no avail. This was an honest to goodness aberration and should not be held against the filly who has been racing very well and put up a 78 in a par 66 two back. Comes back fast for Ronald Allen Sr. who doesn’t want her current form to go to waste. Photo Image (7) takes an honest drop, is usually above par and should be bet down like most Ness starters. Will not be easy to beat, but the price on Juicy Loots should be worth the gamble. Win, Exacta Key Box 1/3,4,7 and Trifectas 1/2,5,6,8/3,4,7

8th – Contenders Only – Classic Moon (2). Did surprisingly well at long odds in first two races in the 08-09 Tam season. Ex-Tampa regular William P White employs Wesley Henry Sr. (a leader at CRC last season) who got the most out of Classic Moon in the summer and fall to ride her this afternoon. Looks to be very well meant here. Right Flanker (5). If you love Tampa then you love the versatile Right Flanker who is always a crowd favorite and with good reason. Posted the highest figure of all the runners in this field with an 86 in last (today’s par is 92, but it doesn’t look like any of these can perform to that level). I’m steering clear of Best Westerner (6) as Ness was 2-18 off the long layoff last season. Exacta Box 2,5 and Trifectas 2,5/7,8/2,5,6,7,8

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,7 and Trifectas 3,7/4,6,10/3,4,6,7,10

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 5,12 and Tifectas 1,4,6,9/5,12/5,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/27/09

2009-01-25T16:43:00.007-05:00

Prime Wager Results.9-26(35%) -$13.00 (9-3-5) (65% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....11-35(31%) -$7.60 (11-8-1) (57% ITM)

On Sunday, I had no prime or soft wagers. Among my contenders only selections, my 4th race $12 exacta key box returned $27.60, my 5th race $4 exacta box returned $26.60, my 6th race $12 exacta key box returned $18.60 and my 9th race $4 exacta box returned $11.40. So it goes...

Tuesday's selections:

1st – Contenders Only – Fiore De (12) has best figs in last two and has demonstrated something going longer. Roho jumps to Besselink (10) from Fiore De.and takes a big drop, also showing something when going longer. Cohiba’s Devil (3) has lost as the favorite three times and as the second choice numerous times, no more chances on the front end. Exacta Key Box 12/7,10,11 and Saver Trifectas 12/3/7,10,11

2nd – Contenders Only – Great Point (9) takes a negative drop and is not playable. Showed nothing in first two races, following eight month layoff. I’m not buying it. Exacta Box 1,10 and Trifectas 1,10/4,6,7,8/1,10

3rd – Contenders Only – Inbackofyourmind (2) is supposed to be 7-5 after waking up and posting a 27 in a par 48. Who is making these morning lines? I’m proposing an All/2 Exacta Reverse Wheel and an Exacta Box 3,4,8

4th - Contenders Only – Exacta Box 7,8 and Trifectas 1,9,11/7,8/7,8

5th - Contenders Only - Turtle Bay (2) is progressing nicely and posted an above par 78 in par 69 first time on the turf in last. Switch to struggling Velez gives me the willys. Exacta Box 2,4 and Trifectas 5,6,9/4/2

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,6,8

7th – Contenders Only - Hoosier Kingdom (10). Mello obviously thinks highly of this 3YO colt that’s been racing against winners but figs don’t bear out the optimism. Shortens up after dueling and then weakening in last. Exacta Reverse Key 1,3,7,8,9/10

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 2,3,4

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 3,6 and Saver Trifectas 7,8,9/3,6/3,6 (edited after late scratch).

10th – Contenders Only – Gaskin Land (10). Chased the leader to keep him from getting away and then finished a game second in last, but with a sub-par 54 (today’s par is 67). Outside posts have been taking the dirt routes for the past week. Exacta Key Box 10/1,6 and Saver Exactas 7,8,9/10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/25/09

2009-01-24T11:20:00.010-05:00

Prime Wager Results.9-26(35%) -$13.00 (9-3-5) (65% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....11-35(31%) -$7.60 (11-8-1) (57% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 4th, Regwell won by three and paid $4.20. Also in the 4th, my $8 trifecta wager returned $158.20. My prime wager in the 7th, American Border won and paid $4.00. My prime wager in the 9th, Otis Ridge finished third. Among my contenders only selections, my 3rd race $14 trifecta double key returned $48.40. So it goes...

Sunday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifectas 1,9/1,3,6,9/3,6

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,5 and Trifectas 1,5/2,3/1,5

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,2 and Trifectas 1,2/5,7,8/1,2

4th - Contenders Only - Lord Louis (10). No stranger to marathon distances (or hurdles for that matter), Lord Louis goes 9F with Centeno in the irons for Peter Walder, who had a dynamite year in 2008. The old timer had only three starts last year and was at or close to par in all. Exacta Key Box 10/5,6,7 and Trifectas 10/2,9/5,6,7

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,10 and Trifectas 2,10/5,6,7,8/2,10

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 4/2,3,10 and Trifectas 4/6,9/2,3,10

7th - Contenders Only - Whip the Groom (4). Has taken huge drops, first from a par 78 to a par 72 in last and today from a par 72 to a par 66, with figs good enough to compete with these. Behrens drops bombs on a pretty regular basis. Only El Supremo (9) who posted a 73 in smashing victory in last, keeps the Groom from being a prime wager. Whip the Groom across-the-board, Saver Exacta 9/4 and Trifectas 4,9/3,6,11/3,4,6,9,11 (edited for typo.)

8th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 1/2/All and Saver Exacta 2/1

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifecta Box 1,2,6,9

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 4/2,8,12 and Trifectas 2,8,12/2,8,12/4

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/24/09

2009-01-23T10:59:00.011-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-23(30%) -$15.20 (7-3-4) (61% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....11-35(31%) -$7.60 (11-8-1) (57% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager in the 7th, Straight Laced wired the field and paid $9.20 to win and my $8 saver exacta box in that race returned $65.40. With the exception of the 9th and 10th, my contenders only selections were right on all day, but nothing clicked. So it goes...

Saturday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifectas 6/1/7,8,9

2nd - Contenders Only - Spikevellian (2). Spike is notorious for the sudden wake up and it looks like its time. Ningbo (3) was very close to par in last, switches to 2% rider with no wins at TAM and adds 4 lbs.??? Exacta Box 2,9 and Trifectas 2/1,5,6,8/9

3rd - Contenders Only - Trifectas 4/9/All

4th - A prime wager, Regwell (9). Huge effort in last with a fig of 77 (today's par is 66) while gaining late at 6F against Thiscatcanscat. Both were entered for $5000 for the first time. Ness/Allen team is 12-17 ITM. Win, Exacta Box 5,9 and Trifectas 9/2,3,8,11/5

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2,3/5,7,8,9/2,3

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/3,4

7th - A prime wager, American Border (4). Won 4 of last 5 including a graded stakes at MED. Has the distinction of being the only mare in the race with sub-12 final fractions (with an amazing 11.36 in last). Servis knows his way around Tampa and has found a great spot. Centeno gets the call. Win.

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/5,8

9th - A prime wager, Otis Ridge (6). Once in a while the racing secretary sends you a gift. Last year it was Moment of Song (Jan. 29th, 7th race). This year its Otis Ridge. The starter condition lobs us a softball and we respond by knocking it out of the park. Always above par. Always the favorite. The class of the race. ITM 10 of 12 last year (talk about a late bloomer). Has been working great for Ziadie. RoHo gets the call. Win. Trifectas 6/8,10/5 and 6/5,8,10/1,3

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,11 and Trifectas 6,11/1,4,7,8/6,11

11th - Contenders Only - Win (7) and Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 7/All/6 (edited after scratch).

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/23/09

2009-01-22T11:22:00.015-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-23(30%) -$15.20 (7-3-4) (61% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....10-34(29%) -$14.80 (10-8-1) (56% ITM)

On Thursday, my soft wager in the 4th, Samy Good Luck raced evenly, finishing out of the money. My soft wager in the 5th, Forest Grinder was well placed but had to settle for third. Ness's Forest Grinder was an ice cold 5-1 at post time, a clear indicator that the horse was not well meant yesterday. My soft wager in the 6th, Wild Turk won handily and paid $3.80. Among my contenders only selections my 2nd race $12 exacta box returned $34.20. So it goes...

Friday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/1,4 and Trifectas 3/8/1,4

2nd - Contenders Only - Stephen's Trick (6). Nice cleaan record. Gatis wins 25% with Shippers + types. Always at or near par on a fast surface. Psychic Star (1) has not won in 18 months, would wake up for Cooper now and then. Florida Boy (2) drops to lowest level ever and Camilo wins 40% with two class dropdowns. Has won a dirt route in the past. Premier Take (9). Always sub-par but very reliable. Hard to leave out for a piece. Exacta Key Box 6/1,2,9

3rd - Contenders Only - Trifectas 1/4/All and Saver Exactas 4/1 and 8/1

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3/12 and Trifectas 3,12/1,2,7,8/3,12

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 8/2,5 and Trifectas 8/3,4,9/2,5

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 6/4,7 and Trifectas 6/1,2/1,2,4,7

7th - A soft wager, Straight Laced (7). Last inexplicable. Usually above par and with lots of early speed. Been working well. Gerry Bennett has no problem with the Turf to Dirt or Dropdown angles. Switches to Ramgeet. ML of 8-1 is extraordinarily generous. Trifectas 7/4/All, Saver Exacta 4/7 and Saver Exacta Key Box 7/2,9

8th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 14/5,7/2,5,7,9 or 5,7/2,5,7,9/2,9 if the 14 doesn't get in.

9th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 8,9/8,9/All and Saver Trifectas 5,7/8,9/8,9

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,5,9

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/22/08

2009-01-21T11:01:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-23(30%) -$15.20 (7-3-4) (61% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....9-31(29%) -$12.60 (9-8-0) (55% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime or soft selections. Among my contenders only selections, my 7th race $16 trifecta wager returned $100.00. My 8th race $12 exacta key box returned $45.40 and my 10th race $12 exacta box returned $17.00. So it goes...

Thursday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Dixie Pipe (5). My figs have been somewhat higher than DRF's all season with this major exception. Dixie Pipe, their last two 56, 64, my last two 47, 55. I'm banking on mine. Today's race is a par 70. Poundcake (9) looks OK but Griffith has used Montalvo whenever he was trying this year (Griffith/Montalvo team is 5-10 ITM). Exacta Box 1,4,8 and Trifectas 1,4,8/5,9/1,4,8.

2nd - Contenders Only - Smart Rose (2) was above par in last and Gerry Bennett is 35% Win and 70% ITM rightback. Forbid the Queen (5) sub-par figs but ITM half the time at TAM. Smock/Cotto team is 2-2 ITM. Fresh Call (8) may have finally found the right spot. Exacta Box 2,5,8 and Trifectas 2,5,8/6/2,5,8

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta 8/1 and Trifectas 8/5,6,9/1

4th - A soft wager, Samy Good Luck (2) was beaten by Strike Impact (winner of 6) and Chimchar and Syncopation (two ALW types) and finished with an above par 73 in last, while beaten by eight. Today's par is 72. Ramos will press the button if the 8-1 ML holds up. Win, Exacta Key 2/8,9 and Trifectas 2/4,6,10/8,9

5th - A soft wager, Forest Grinder (4). Ness wins 50% Route to Sprint and 36% Turf to Dirt. Ness/Allen team has been 11-15 ITM. Best figs, hands down. Win, Exacta Key 4/3,8 and Trifectas 4,9/3,4,8,9/3,8

6th - A soft wager, Wild Turk (5). Always close at the middle distances. Gerry Bennett wins 33% with the Turf to Dirt angle and 24% with the fastback. You learn to do by doing. Wild Turk is ready. Win, Exacta Key 5/2,3 and Trifectas 5/All/2,3

7th - Contenders Only - Romagnola (6). Ziadie is 100% ITM with L1-3 + S + Dropdown and 75% ITM Route to Sprint. Turf to Dirt is no problem. The numbers strongly indiacte that Romagnola gets a piece. (Scratched on the 17th for softer spot from PP11). Celtic Kettle (2) switch to HVG brightens outlook. Gaston A. (3) always respectable and trying 13 days ago at GP, gets Teator. Exacta Key Box 6/2,3 and Trifectas 6/7,9,10/2,3

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,4,6 and Trifectas 1,4,6/3/1,4,6

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,6 and Trifectas 3,6/1,5,7/1,3,5,6,7

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,7 and Trifectas 4,7/1,8/1,4,7,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/21/09

2009-01-20T11:24:00.013-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-23(30%) -$15.20 (7-3-4) (61% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....9-31(29%) -$12.60 (9-8-0) (55% ITM)

On Tuesday, my soft wager in the 6th, Littledovefeather turned in a dull effort as the odds on favorite. My soft wager in the 10th, Tawnimara hung late. Among my contenders only selections, I had the winner of the 2nd for $4.20 and my $2 exacta in that race returned $19.80. So it goes...

Wednesday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/5,8 and Trifectas 3,5/2,8,10,11/3,5

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 2/10,11 and Trifectas 2/3,8/3,8,10,11

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,6 and Trifectas 3,6/4,5,7/3,6

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,5 and Trifectas 1,5/2,3,4/1,5

5th - Contenders Only - Demacmorton (3). Squeezed back and forced to alter course at the break in last, comes back fast for Adrienne Provost and adds Daniel Centeno in a sub-par affair. Win, Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/7,9,10,11/3,4

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/3,8

7th - Contenders Only - Trifecta 2/3,6/All

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 6/1,5,7

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 4/3,5,6 (Dirtymoposse (3) had a monstrous work from the gate on 12/27, seems to be ready after being away for nearly two years. Not Acclaim (5) looks very tough and Ziadie is awesome with long layoffs but he is also 1-15 at 5F in the last two seasons).

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,4,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/20/09

2009-01-18T16:16:00.011-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-23(30%) -$15.20 (7-3-4) (61% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....9-29(31%) -$8.60 (9-8-0) (59% ITM)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 10th, Juicy Loots, a speedball, would not go in the gate and then broke 15 lengths behind, finishing out of the money. The winner had an $8500 win bet laid down at the opening. There was something hinky about the race. My soft wager in the 8th, Breeze Keeper diasppointed as the even money favorite and finished out of the money. Among my contenders only selections, my $12 trifecta wager in the 6th returned $51.60 and my $16 exacta key box in the 7th clicked for $41.60. Two of my contenders only plays scratched. So it goes...

Tuesday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifecta Key 7/2,6,8/2,6,8

2nd - Contenders Only - Win 3, Exacta 3/5 and Trifecta 7,8,9,10,11/5/3

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 1/3,4,10 and Trifecta 1/7/3,4,10

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/2,8/2,4,5,8

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,9,10 and Trifecta Box 1,8,10 and Trifectas 8,10/1,2,4/8,10

6th - A soft wager, Littledovefeather (7). Posted a 101 in last (today's par is 80) and takes a significant drop. Beaten by Vanquisher in last. Switch to RoHo from struggling Velez. Alexander is always tough in turf routes. Win, Exacta Key Box 7/1,4,8 and Trifectas 4,7/1,5,8/4,7

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/1,2 and Trifectas 6/1,2,5/1,2,5

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/2,6 and Trifectas 2,3,6/7/2,3,6

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,6 and Trifectas 2,6/3,4,5/2,6

10th - A soft wager, Tawnimara (9). Above par in both races this season. Centeno jumps from MVP Grand who was the beaten favorite in both his tries (and with lesser figs). McCarthy has respectable numbers on the fastback. Win, Exacta Key 9/3,4 and Trifecta 9/1,6,7,10/3,4

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/18/09

2009-01-17T16:00:00.010-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-22(32%) -$13.20 (7-3-4) (64% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....9-28(32%) -$6.60 (9-8-0) (61% ITM)

On Saturday, my soft wager in the 8th, General Quarters was no match for Musket Man and had to settle for 2nd, but my $8 saver exacta box in that race returned $11.80. My soft wager in the 11th, Sentimental Concert had a rough trip, checking for racing room twice on the turn and settling for second. Among my contenders only selections, my 1st race $8 exacta key box returned $22.20, my 6th race $4 exacta box returned $29.60, my 9th race $12 exacta box returned $19.40 and my $24 tri box returned $44.00. So it goes...

Sunday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4/3,5 and Trifectas 4/7,8,9/3,5

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,7,8 and Trifectas 3,4/3,4,7,8/7,8

3rd - Contenders Only - Roboponi (1). Above par fig at the route 18 days ago. Slomkowski is 44% with the Route to Sprint angle at TAM and 25% rightback. Centeno jumps for General Jake (4) which leaves me scratching my head. Both have nice clean records. Storm Thief (7). Big effort in last. Allen is 38% with the L1-3 + S + Dropdown. Exacta Box 1,4,7 and Trifectas 1,4,7/2,3/1,4,7

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/1,11

5th - Contenders Only - Romagnola (11). Ziadie is 100% ITM with L1-3 + S + Dropdown and 75% ITM Route to Sprint. The numbers strongly indiacte that Romagnola gets a piece. The 4 & 7 haven't show us their best yet this season. The 3 will trying to make it two in a row and has been racing well, albeit with subpar figs. Exacta Key Box 11/3,4,7

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,8 and Trifectas 6,8/5,7,10/6,8

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 9/1,2,3,4

8th - A soft wager, Breeze Keeper (8). Dale Bennett claimed BK from Wayne Catalano in November and has been preparing him for a big season at Tampa for the past three months. Work on Dec. 7 looks like fastest of the season at 4 panels. Bennett is 4-9 with L1-3 + S + UC and has a respectable 22% 1st Off Claim win stat (and 48% ITM). Win and Saver Exacta 5/8 and Saver Tri 1,2,3,4/8/5

9th - Contenders Only - Straight Trifecta 4/2/7 and Saver Exacta Key Box 4/2,7

10th - A prime wager, Juicy Loots (1). Very big above par effort on Dec. 19th, shortens up and dropsdown for Allen who has the majority of his wins on the drop. A bullet work on Jan. 6th. Ground saving trip adds value. Win and Exacta 1,9 and Trifecta 1/9/6.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/17/09

2009-01-16T16:33:00.009-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-22(32%) -$13.20 (7-3-4) (64% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....9-26(35%) -$2.60 (9-6-0) (58% ITM)

On Friday, my prime wager in the 5th, Lite Legacy went off at 11-1, was going for it but weakened late finishing fourth by three. My soft wager in the 10th, Mystamy won easily and paid $3.60. My contenders only selections failed to deliver a winning return yesterday. So it goes...

Saturday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/1,3

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/3,8,9

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 4/1,2 and Trifectas 1,4/2,5,6,8/1,4

4th - Contenders Only - Lakeside Run (4). Heavily bet in debut. Adds Lasix. Clement and Centeno are on fire. Been Awhile (12) above par in last. Exacta Box 4,12 or Exacta Key 4/All if the 12 doesn't go.

5th - Contenders Only - Nana's Hope (8) is the only horse that's ever been close at 9F. Takes a double drop. LI Ice Tea will be out front and could get away. Bet down in first start of the season. Exacta Box 8,9 and Trifectas 8,9/2,3,7/8,9

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,9 and Trifectas 4,9/1,2,3,10/4,9

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,3,4 and Saver Exacta 1,3,4/8

8th - A soft wager, General Quarters (4). Made up 11 lengths from the 2nd call to the finish in the Inaugural and was flying at the finish going the last quarter in under 24. Win, Exacta Key Box 4/6,7 and Trifectas 4/1,2,6,7/1,2,6,7

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,2,4 and Trifecta Box 1,2,4,6

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/4,5 and Trifecta Box 3,4,5/1,2/3,4,5

11th - A soft wager, Sentimental Concert (5). Superior pace and speed and the dropdown make today look like graduation day for Chad Stewart who does his best work with maiden claimers and is always trying on the fastback. Phil Teator is having a great season and won two sprints yesterday.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/16/09

2009-01-15T09:10:00.018-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-21(33%) -$11.20 (7-3-4) (66% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....8-25(32%) -$4.20 (8-6-0) (56% ITM)

On Thursday, my prime wager, Repenter disappointed as the 3-5 favorite after dueling throughout. My soft wager in the 4th, Brooks Star had to settle for second, but my $2 saver exacta in that race returned $29.80. Among my contenders only selections, there were some near misses with Madame Bling beating 14-1 shot Awesome Play by a nose and foiling my reverse exacta wheel in the 5th and then in the 9th, I had Wekiva Wachee who paid $25.20 on top in my exacta but my two underneath choices finished 3rd and 4th. So it goes...

On Tuesday, Charles Fontana engineered a beauty in the 1st when Tigerglider went to the post as the odds on favorite and was beaten by African Angel (his other entry) at 5-1 and resulting in a $22.80 exacta. Paco Lopez and Daniel Centeno were up. All the signs were there and I missed them, focusing instead on the superiority of Tigerglider. Congratulations Charlie! You never cease to amaze me.

Friday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Jean the Queen (5). Above par in both starts at TAM. Shortens up today. Centeno jumps off the Ness starter to ride the Queen. Wilson is overdue. Aliens Last Strike (7) was flying early at CRC on the grass and demonstrated that early speed on the dirt in November. Could get loose. Trifectas 5,7/5,7/All and DD's 5/7,8,10

2nd - Contenders Only - Sub-par performances from those that have been trying at the distance leaves this one wide open to those who haven't. Scace/RoHo firster tough to leave out, but works do nothing for me. Exacta Box 7,8,10.

3rd - Contenders Only - Princess BG (6). Ziadie wins 56% with layoffs at TAM and works indicate readiness. With exception of last two, always at or near par (64). RoHo is up. Waiting for Tonight (3) four out of last five were above par, but Ness's achilles heel is the long layoff. He only wins 11% of these at TAM. Then again he has been in virtually half the exactas he's had a starter in for the last two seasons. 1,2 & 4 have high ITM% at Tam. A tough call. Exacta Key Box 6/1,2,4 and Trifectas 3,6/3,6/1,2,4,10

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 4,8/4,8/2,3,9,10

5th - A prime wager, Lite Legacy (2) ML 15-1. First of the season was in very tough company. Two that were out of the money in that race, Bo's Secret Storm, won next time out and Mr. Easy E ran second to Right Flanker. Lightning fast work on 1/9. The Allen's will be right there today. Win and Exacta Key Box 2/7,8,11,12.

6th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 9,11/9,11/5,6,7,10 or Exacta Key 9/5,6,7,10 if the 11 does not draw in.

7th - Contenders Only - Dashing Pirate (5) looks great but Fontana is only 1-6 with 1st 3 OC and only 27% ITM with same. Sir Tyler T (4) usually races above par (74) and has won going Sprint to Route in the past and has a lightning fast bullet work on 1/13, but jockey S Lazo is 0-17 and Carvajal is 0-23 going Sprint to Route. Fire Striker (8) loves the Downs and Gerry Bennett wins 33% with Turf to Dirt types. Florida Jack Pot (9) won powerfully on 1/3 but with a fig about six lengths slower than par. Touch Em All's (10) attributes are obvious but the old timer hasn't raced for 33 days. I'm gonna go with Exacta Box 4,10 and Trifectas 4,10/5,8,9/4,10

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 10/1,2,9

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 7/All

10th - A soft wager, Mystamy (4). If he can repeat early pace effort of last today, this one is over. Hungarian Gent (3) will be there late after tightener on 12/31. Win and Trifecta Double Key 4/3/All.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/15/09

2009-01-13T16:36:00.011-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-20(35%) -$9.20 (7-3-4) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....8-24(33%) -$2.20 (8-5-0) (54% ITM)

On Tuesday, I had no prime selections. My soft wager in the 7th, Summer Party Girl, won by 6 1/2 and paid $4.80. My soft wager in the 10th, Seed of Faith, won like a champ and paid $6.60. Also in the 10th, my $2 exacta returned $48.00. Among my contenders only selections there were five winners but nothing clicked underneath. Welcome to Tampa. So it goes...

There was rain for the first time on Tuesday and some chilly overnight weather. I hope the bias will still be with us on Thursday, but a little bit of caution is justified until the situation is discernible.

Thursday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,7 and Trifectas 3,7/1,4,5/3,7

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 9,12 and Trifectas 4,10/4,9,10,12/4,9,10,12

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 9/3,5,6

4th - A soft wager, Brooks Star (9). Gets the nod on Radcliffe's judgement in always finding the right spot. 5-6 ITM. Best fig (and in last). Great work on 1/6. Claxton (8) was gaining at 6 1/2 F two back but needs to get closer sooner. Also had a great work on 1/10. Win, Trifectas 9/8/All and Saver Exacta 8/9.

5th - Contenders Only - Madame Bling (10). Two seconds in six starts in NY racing for big purses. Has been laid off since July. Jim Toner has not had a winner at TAM in last two seasons. I'll take a flyer with an All/10 Exacta.

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,5 and Trifectas 4,5/6,7,8/4,5

7th - A prime wager, Repenter (1). Half-brother to Minaret Stakes winner Repenting was 2nd to On Deck who posted an 81 in a par 71 sprint on 12/31 that went in 1:17:81, a very big effort. Unless there is a surprise, this should be graduation day. Centeno has the return call. Win and Trifectas 1/5,9/3,5,9,10

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 2/4,6,9 and Trifecta 2/1/4,6,9

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2/1,4 and Trifectas 2,4/1,2,4,8/1,8

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 6,7/4,5,11/6,7

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/13/08

2009-01-11T17:18:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-20(35%) -$9.20 (7-3-4) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....6-22(27%) -$9.60 (6-5-0) (50% ITM)

On Sunday, my soft wager in the 3rd, Advice to Sinners failed to improve her early position and subsequently had to settle for second money. My soft wager in the 8th, Pitchnicholas won and paid $6.40. Among my contenders only selections, my 10th race $8 exacta key box returned $28.40. So it goes...

Tuesday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Tigerglider (3) Above par CRC shipper need only go another 780 feet to put Fontana in the winners circle and Centeno will bring it home. Exacta Key 3/All

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 6/2,4

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,4 and Trifectas 3,4/3,4,5,8/3,4,5,8

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 5,6,7

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/6,9

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 2/3,4 and Trifectas 2/6,7/3,4

7th - A soft wager, Summer Party Girl (3). Broke maiden in February at GP, tried the grass and won one there. Laid off since July. Ziadie is 55% with L4-8's at TAM. RoHo knows a live one when she sees it. SPG has the running style that's just right for today's race. Scratched on 1/4 for a better spot, today's field is weaker than those. Win, Exacta 3/5 and Trifectas 3/7,8,9,10/5

8th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 7/1,5/3 and 7/1,3/5

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/2,4

10th - A soft wager, Seed of Faith (7). Was second last out in July at CNL. Drops a notch today. Workout from the gate on New Year's Day was faster than most bullet works without the gate. Will be trying today for Dana Cross with Andrew Ramgeet up. Win, Exacta 7/6 and Trifectas 7/6/10,11,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/11/09

2009-01-10T15:08:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-20(35%) -$9.20 (7-3-4) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....5-20(25%) -$12.00 (5-4-0) (45% ITM)

On Saturday, I had no prime selections. My soft wager in the 3rd, Marine Recruit was through early. My soft wager in the 9th, Vocalize, got it going too late and had to settle for second. Among my contenders only action, my 2nd race $6 trifecta double key bet returned $160.00. My 7th race $8 exacta key box wager returned $34.80. My 8th race $6 exacta key returned $14.00 and my 10th race wager scratched. So it goes...

Sunday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - She's Tripping (3) 2nd best in last two, beaten favorite last, drops another notch today. Hopespringseternal (11) takes a double drop after showing a sign of life in last. E.F.F. Sher (1). Cibelli has success with the Shortenup + Dropdown + Turf to Dirt angle. Loses blinkers. LA Gonzalez rides. High Time Girl (2) was gaining late in last. PP 2 was red hot yesterday. Exacta Box 3,11 and Trifectas 1,2/1,2/3,11.

2nd - Contenders Only - Bailey's Dynasty (8) returns in 8 days after being outclassed in last. Just missed in first start of season. Pittman's intentions seem clear. Cucina Nick (1) should improve on the drop for Gatis who has success with Shipper + Stretchout angle. Exacta Box 1,8 and Trifectas 4,6/1,8/1,4,6,8

3rd - A soft wager, Advice to Sinners (6). Running style is all wrong but ATS finished very strongly in last for Ness and HVG. All she needs is a better early position. Win and Exacta Key Box 6/7,8

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 8/9/1,2,3,7,10

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,10 and Trifectas 3,10/11,12/3,10

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 8,9 and Trifectas 8/10/2,3,4,6,9

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 7,9 and Trifectas 7,9/5,6/7,9

8th - A soft wager, Pitchnicholas (4). Right back for Robert Jeffries. Weak competition makes it appear logical outcome. Loves the grass at TAM. Citi Smoke (3) had respectable effort on yielding turf course at AP in September, but Guciardo is 0-20 on the grass last two seasons at Tampa. Due East (9) is very reliable but appears outclassed today. Exacta Box 4/3,9 and Trifectas 4/6,8,10/3,9

9th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 8/7/3 and 7/3,8/3,8 and DD's 7,8/10

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 10/3,5

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 1/10/09

2009-01-09T17:49:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results.7-20(35%) -$9.20 (7-3-4) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....5-18(28%) -$8.00 (5-3-0) (44% ITM)

On Friday, my prime wager in the 9th, Castles in the Sky won by seven and paid $3.20. My soft wager in the 4th, 2TS Miss Firecat was the second choice in the wagering but finished out of the money. Among my contenders only selections, my 2nd race $12 exacta box returned $33.40. So it goes.

Saturday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifectas 5/3/All

2nd - Contenders Only - Trifectas - 2/4/5,6,8

3rd - A soft wager, Marine Recruit (2). Cronk wants Marine Recruit to be eligible for those $5000 starter allowance races and hopes last two at Del will keep'em away from the claim box. Cronk is good with the L4-8 angle. Marine Recruit won off long layoff at TAM last year. Races at rock bottom level. Win and Exacta Key 2/1,5,10.

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 5,10/5,10/All

5th - Contenders Only - 1,3,4

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,7,9

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/1,5

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 2/7,8,10

9th - A soft wager, Vocalize (7). Radosevich claimed this reliable 4yo twelve days ago after win for Ritchey. Appears ready to repeat. Radosevich finally has a winner with Mike Allen up.

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,5,9

11th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 11/4/All

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/09/09

2009-01-08T08:58:00.028-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-19(32%) -$10.40 (6-3-4) (68% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....5-17(29%) -$6.00 (5-3-0) (47% ITM)

On Thursday, in the 1st race, the race was for second and my soft wager saver exacta box with 17-1 Aliquot was foiled when he missed the place by 1 1/2 lengths. My soft wager in the 2nd, Dirtkicker was scratched. My soft wager in the 3rd, Lost River was out of the money. My soft wager in the 8th, Close the Deal won and paid $7.60. Among my contenders only selections, my 4th race $12 exacta box returned $22.40 and my $4 exacta box in the 10th returned $31.20. A decent day. So it goes...

Friday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Ottasea (6) had very low energy distribution in debut and appears suited to go long. Posted a respectable 40 (today's par is 41) in first. I'm Jealous (4) has demonstrated distance ability as a 3YO. Artz has had some success with FBK, 2L and Stretchout angles. Pompano Beach Rose (7) was the beaten favorite in last (and my choice too!) and switches to Ness' regular rider Daniel Centeno today. K O'C is 14% with Sprint-to-Routes but Invisible Lady (9) seems likely to be invisible at the wire. Exacta Box 4,6,7

2nd - Contenders Only - I'm Wealthy (3). K'OC is good with firsters but only 1-16 last two seasons at TAM. Sire's prodigy win 21% in debuts. Sneaky Heart (7) was flying late in last but must have a better early position to be in it today. Tabouli (10) must have been trying at 11-1 and couldn't get it done, still looks capable of beating these. Exacta Box 3,7,10.

3rd - Contenders Only - La Soldadita (6). Ramos' bomb machine won twice at TAM last season paying $41.00 and then $54.60. There is enough competition in this race for another Ramos score here. Fluffy's Girl (7). Fontana, the king of the bomb makers (with 15 in the last two seasons) may have the same idea. Fluffy's Girl may be 2-47, but she's 11-16 ITM at TAM. Fontana is overdue. Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 1,3,6,7/1,3,6,7,8/1,3,8

4th - A soft wager, Miss Firecat (2). Had the worst trip a FTS could experience and stayed with it late. Stretches out today. Win.

5th - Contenders Only - Cat's Got Legs (4). Bid into stretch and weakened last at TAM on 12/19. Alexander wins 32% in Turf Routes. Another chance. Soaring Emotions (5). Clement and Centeno can't be eliminated. Blissful Song (8). Respectable in first two tries on Turf surfaces that were off. Chad Brown wins 24% on the grass. Barefoot Babe (10). Ships in from the Big A after above par maiden win. K'OC is always tough on the turf. Kiss On a Star (12). Two powerful late runs on the grass. Best final fractions. This race is wide open. Trifectas 8/10/4,5,12

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/1,7

7th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 10/1,2/1,2,6,9

8th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 5,6/5,6/1,7,8

9th - A prime wager, Castles in the Sky (9). Posted a 91 in last, the highest figure at 5F on the grass among today's contenders. The first quarter went in 21.58 and that was on a surface with a -13 variant that afternoon. PP hurts but he'll drop over right after the break. In absolutely top form for Ness and Centeno. My Best Pal Red(3) was scratched by his vet in that same race. Win and saver Exactas 1,2,3,7,8/3

10th - Pass - Fire Chief's (7) drop does not add up. Fontana's Sunset Escapade (1) has the second best figs in the bunch (albeit sub-par). It's anybody's race.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/08/09

2009-01-06T16:22:00.013-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-19(32%) -$10.40 (6-3-4) (68% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....4-14 (29%) -$7.60 (4-3-0) (50% ITM)

On Tuesday, my prime wager in the 7th was through early. My prime wager in the 9th settled for third. My soft wager in the 3rd, was out of the money. The underneath side of my contenders only action was solid all day, but nothing clicked on the front end. I enjoyed the dark day on Wednesday. So it goes...

The Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper celebrates 5000 hits since Opening Day. Thanks for your support.

Thursdays Selections:

1st - A soft wager, Aliquot (4) ML20-1. Entered in sprint for a tag for only the second time, shortens up for bomb maker Bernard Bramante. Switch to Pedro Cotto from Djuric hints at intent. A weak field spells opportunity. Win and Exacta Box 4/1,5,6

2nd - A soft wager, Dirtkicker (1). Turn times indicate So Very Irish dogs Leader Whip throughout with both weakening in the stretch and setting the table for Dirtkicker's late run again. RoHo is very tough with live ones. Gatis is all business. Win and Exacta Box 1,2

3rd - A soft wager, Lost River (2). Solid effort on the grass at 1 Mile in last. Has won four sprints lifetime. Pittman is 29% Turf to Dirt and OK with 2L1-3 + 2S angle. Win, Exacta Box 1,2 and Trifectas 1,2/1,2/5,7,8

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,4,9. Magic Carpet Glide (1) all three wins at the route. LI Ice Tea (4) has been close after long layoff in the past. Tis Premixed (9) has soft figs but is very consistent and just missed two back.

5th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 5,6/5,6/All

6th - Contenders Only - Straight Trifecta 3/7/8

7th - Contenders Only - Tri Key 12/2,5,7/2,5,7 or Exacta Box 2,5,7 if the 12 doesn't go.

8th - A soft wager, Close the Deal (4). Ness and Felix Ortiz repeat. Close the Deal is very consistent and has no where to go but up in class. Joan's Royal Dawn (3) and Red Liquor n Lace (7) were both beaten by 3-42 Country Kat on 12/19 and that leaves me less than impressed. May get a decent price with Ness for a change. Win only.

9th - Contenders Only - Tri to Dance (1) races at lowest level of career. K O'C has high ITM % with the Dropdown + Stretchout. RoHo is up. Concorde's Pastry (5) got workout in last. Tony Wilson wins 40% at TAM with Fastbacks <14 days. Casablanca Babe (2) has Dale Bennett eager to demonstrate the propriety of his claim and races at her bottom level today. Exacta Box 1,2,5

10th - Contenders Only - Early fractions of No Show Bill (3) and Speculator (7) look untouchable among these. McQuade is always trying with L4-8's and Sweetsoutherndance (2) will be no exception. Exacta Box 3,7 and Saver Trifectas 2/3,7/All.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/06/09

2009-01-04T12:57:00.004-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-17(35%) -$6.40 (6-3-3) (71% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....4-13 (31%) -$5.60 (4-3-0) (54% ITM)

On Sunday, my prime wager in the 2nd, Banyan Tree was second best. Ditto for my soft wager in the 10th, Rush to Dinner. My soft wager in the 6th, Summer Party Girl scratched. For the second time this season, my contenders only wagers came up empty. So it goes...

Tuesday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifectas 8/4,6/4,6 and 8/7/4,6 and DD 8/8,10

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 8,10 and Trifectas 8,10/3,12/8,10

3rd - A soft wager, Silver Jorge (3). Was well placed and gave way in last on 12/17 at TAM. Shortens up today. Best record of the bunch. Broke maiden in June at the distance and has raced forwardly since. Gets it done today against a sub-par field. Win (3) and Trifectas 3/1,9/1,9.

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 5/1/3,8

5th - Contenders Only - Win 10 and Trifectas 10/3,4,9/3,4,9

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 1,4 and Trifectas 1,4/1,4/3,7

7th - A prime wager, Snuck in the Back (6). Great effort in last, dueling with two and then gamely trying to hold off the late runner. A decent trip assures victory today. Win, Exacta Key Box 6/3,7 and Trifectas 6/2,4/3,7

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,8 and Trifectas 2,8/1,3,5/2,8

9th - A prime wager, Forest Grinder (5). Above par early speed puts away all comers this afternoon. Weakened in mid-stretch after dueling throughout in last. Shortens up 1/16th today.
Win and DD 5/3

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 3/4,8,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/04/09

2009-01-03T17:58:00.008-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-16 (38%) -$4.40 (6-2-3) (69% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....4-12 (33%) -$3.60 (4-2-0) (50% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 5th, Allnightdance was out of the money in a race in which the top four choices finished 7,8,9 & 10 in a field of ten. I had no soft wagers on Saturday. Among my contenders only selections, my $4 early double play returned $13.80 and my 11th race $20 trifecta play returned $112.80. So it goes...

Sunday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 1/6,7,10

2nd - A prime wager, Banyan Tree (4). Bound to repeat after above par 66 (today's par is 57) in last, two weeks ago. Was clearly best in that one. Zwiesler is 50% rightback at TAM. Well traveled Elegant Star (6) is 2-25 LT and My Gemsa Gem (1) has struggling Velez in the irons. The stars are aligned for this one. Win only.

3rd - Contenders Only - Trifecta Key 6/1,5,7/1,3,5,7

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,4 and Saver Tri 3,4/8/3,4

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,9

6th - A soft wager, Summer Party Girl (6). Broke maiden in February at GP, tried the grass and won one there. Laid off since July. Ziadie is 55% with L4-8's at TAM. RoHo knows a live one when she sees it. SPG has the running style that's just right for today's race. Win and Exacta Key 6/4,9 (edited).

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 7,10 and Pick 4 7,10/2/3,9/1

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2/7,8

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,9 and Trifecta 3,9/1,3,9,10/1,10

10th - A soft wager, Rush to Dinner (1). Banging on the door with above par 64 (today's par is 56) in last for team Feliciano. That kind of effort again shows the firsters whose boss. Canadian Jade (9) goes for Cibelli (21% with dropdowns). That one could get going with LA Gonzalez up. Win and Exacta Box 1,9.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/03/09

2009-01-02T21:25:00.008-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-15 (40%) -$2.40 (6-2-3) (73% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....4-12 (33%) -$3.60 (4-2-0) (50% ITM)

On Friday, my soft wager in the 1st, Darby Lee won and paid $2.60 (WooHoo!). In the 2nd and the 8th my soft wagers, Pompano Beach Rose and Greeley's Voice were beaten favorites. In the 5th, my 9-1 soft wager La Corredora was through after a half. The only bright spot in the day came in the 9th, when my contenders only $4 exacta key clicked for $65.60. So it goes...

Saturday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Trifecta Key 2/1,8,11/1,8,9,11 and DD 2/6,9

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,9

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,9

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 2/4,8/4,8

5th - A prime wager, Allnightdance (7). Awesome final fractions in last two. Very clean record. Figs consistently at or near par. Layoff not a problem. Loves Tampa. Win and Trifectas 7/4/6,9

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 11/5,10

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 10/2,9,11

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 7,8,11

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 2/4,9,14

10th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 4,5/1/All

11th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 7/3/All

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 01/02/09

2008-12-31T15:55:00.020-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-15 (40%) -$2.40 (6-2-3) (73% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....3-8 (38%) +$1.80 (3-2-0) (63% ITM)

On Wednesday, I had no prime selections. My soft wager in the 4th, Bello Papa scratched and my soft wager in the 8th, Repenter won the duel he found himself in, but had to settle for second behind the late running On Deck. In that race, my $2 saver exacta returned an incredible $13.60, more than adequately covering the lost win wager. For the first time in this young season, my contenders only selections came up empty. I blew the call in the 3rd, when Kenny Run (who was sore in the post parade of last two) won going away and which serves as a practical reminder that if you drop a horse low enough, he could win on three legs. So it goes...

It has occurred to me that readers need and deserve an explanation as to the relative weighting of my selections. The ratio of my wagering on Prime, Soft and Contenders Only selections is about 10-3-1 respectively. Contenders Only play accounts for only about 20% of my action. Sometimes I pop for big payoffs in Contenders Only races, but I don't have regrets. I back my strong opinions strongly and enjoy the action the other plays provide.

Friday's selections:

1st - A soft wager, Darby Lee (4). Posted a 66 (today's par is 55) two weeks ago at TAM and was gaining late. Drops a notch against a weak field today. Ness is 33% with 2L1-3+2S+ Dropdown. Ronnie Allen Jr. returns to ride for the win. Win, Exacta 4,7 and Trifectas 4/2,6/7.

2nd - A soft wager, Pompano Beach Rose (4). This one is right out of my trainer profile for Ness. Layoff + Dropdown+ RtS + Turf to Dirt = 78% Win rate (7-9). Win, Exacta Key 4/6,8 and Trifectas 2,3,9/4/6,8.

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,4,10 and Trifectas 3/2,4,10/2,4,10.

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box - 2/8,11

5th - A soft wager, La Corredora (3). Averaged 12 sec/panel in final 4 1/2 furlongs in last (after dueling throughout), a huge effort. Have not seen that from any NW2LT lately. O'Connell was 2nd leading trainer on the grass last year and was 40% (2-5) with L4-8s. Leyva has had a great start at Tampa this season and is competent on the turf. Win, Exactas 3/1,4 and Trifectas 7,10/3/1,4.

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 1/5,8

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 6,7,8

8th - A soft wager, Greeley's Voice (5). Put up an 86 (today's par is 78) two weeks ago and was slowly gaining late. Fast pace wipes out others, moderate pace leaves GV with lots of energy for the finish. Cronk wins 30% on the stretchout. Wondering why RoHo jumps for another Cronk runner in the same race. Win, Exacta Box 5/7,9 and Trifectas 4/5/7,9.

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 9/7,10 and Trifectas 1,2,6/9/7,10.

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,3,7 and Trifecta 9/2,3,7/2,3,7.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 12/31/08

2008-12-30T20:20:00.009-05:00

Prime Wager Results.6-15 (40%) -$2.40 (6-2-3) (73% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....3-7 (43%) +$3.80 (3-1-0) (57% ITM)

On Tuesday, in the 5th, my prime wager Glen Wilding won by four and paid $5.20. My soft wager in the 1st, Call On Joshua was through early. Among my contenders only selections, my 2nd race $8 exacta key box returned $11.20 and my 6th race $12 exacta box returned $35.00. So it goes...

Wednesday's Selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 10/3,7 and DD 10/1

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 1/2,3

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 9/5,7,8,11 and a saver Exacta 5/9. (Subscribers know why we are off of Kenny Run).

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,7 and Trifectas 2,7/All/2,7

5th - A soft wager, Bello Papa (2). BP has been posting some above par figs against better in the fall. Gerry Bennett is great with the L1-3 +S angle (25% last three seasons). BP loves Tampa. Luis A. Gonzalez has had a great start at the Downs this season. 6-1 ML sweetens it. Win and saver Exacta Box 2,3 and Trifectas 2/4,5,11/3.

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,5,6

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 10/3,7 and Trifectas 3,7,10/1/3,7,10.

8th - A soft wager, Repenter (7). Untested half-brother to the speedy Stakes winning Repenting gets the nod here for Dale Bennett with Centeno in the irons. Debut marked by poor start and fast final fraction (two clicks faster than par). Another chance today. Win and a saver Exacta 8/7.

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4,8 and Trifectas 4,8/1,2,5/4,8

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 6/2,8,10

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections 12/30/2008

2008-12-28T07:57:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results.5-14 (36%) -$5.60 (5-2-3) (70% ITM)
Soft Wager Results....3-6 (50%) +$5.80 (3-1-0) (66% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager in the 3rd, Fleet Ace, showed early speed once again and was through after a half. My other prime in the 10th, Top Seed, just lasted and won the Inaugural Stakes, paying $3.80. My soft wager in the 1st, Diamond Black Jack was ridden out, paying $5.40 for the win. Among my contenders only selections, my $6 exacta key wager in the 6th clicked for $38.00 and one of my wagers was scratched. So it goes...

Tuesday's selections:

1st – A soft wager, Call On Joshua (2), Winless Fontana is 47% ITM with the 2L1-3+RtS+Dropdown+Fastback angle. Is bound to pop. Was satisfactory at the route in last, 13 days ago. If Fontana’s horse goes to the post at <5-2 he wins 44% of the time, <5-1 27%. Let the board dictate the size of your wager. Exacta Key 2/6,12 and Trifectas 2/8/6,12 and DD’s 2/3,6,10.

2nd - Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 3/6,10

3rd - Contenders Only – Exacta Key 3/1,8,9

4th - Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 8/2,3

5th - A prime wager, Glen Wilding (2). Delacour’s handling of this filly leaves me with a positive impression. Glen Wilding has the best turf record in the bunch and has not been entered for a tag (yet). Only sub-12 final furlong finisher in the race. Delacour wins right back 27% of the time. Leading turf rider Daniel Centeno rides. O’Connell is always tough on the grass, and Pat’s Image (10) will be right there late! Win, Straight Exacta 2/10 and Trifectas 2/10/1,6

6th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 1,5,8

7th – Contenders Only – Lord Eldron (1) was beaten by a NW4 LT and two open claimers in last at MNR, while putting up an above par 78 (today’s par is 68) in that race. LA Gonzalez rides for Julie Luhr. Dynaquake (4) has been working very well earlier in the month. Last race was a par effort. (His starter races this past summer were restricted to horses that had broken their maiden for $40,000 or less.)RoHo is up. Gerry Bennett wins 25% with L1-3+S. Catedon Cat (5) is always there, drops a notch and shortens up today for John Simms. Monstrous gate work one week ago. Vocalize (2) has had eight months to mature, raced well in the spring at TAM, bullet work on 12/17. I’ll play an Exacta Key Box 1/4,5 and Trifectas 1,2/1,2/4,5.

8th – Contenders Only – Exacta Box 6,7 and Trifectas 3,4,11/6,7/6,7

9th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key Box 2/5,7 and Trifectas 1,8,10/2/5,7 and DD 2/6

10th – Contenders Only – Exacta Key 6/2,3,12

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 12/27/08

2008-12-26T16:52:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results 4-12(33%) -$5.40 (4-2-3) (75% ITM)

On Friday, in the 5th, my prime wager He Struck It Rich had an awkward trip start to finish and was out of the money as the beaten favorite. My soft wager in the 6th, Rahoo had to settle for second behind the razor sharp Unbridled Behavior, but my $8 saver exacta key box returned $22.00 in that race. Among my contenders only selections, a $12 exacta box in the 8th race returned $23.80 and my $4 exacta box in the 9th returned $47.80. So it goes...

It's my birthday today, so I'm expecting the racing gods to shower me with good luck and good racing.

Saturday's selections:

1st - A soft wager, Diamond Black Jack (PP5). DBJ stretches out to 6F after finishing well at 5 1/2F at CRC 19 days ago. Has the best speed figs in a weak field. Paco Lopez has been outstanding these first few weeks. Win and Exacta Key 5/4,8,9 and DD 5/3

2nd Contenders Only - Exacta Key 3/5,6,11

3rd - A prime wager, Fleet Ace (5). Has had only two starts, both at AP. Bled in the first. Raced on a yielding Turf course in the second. Raced forwardly in both. Works on the dirt like the backside is on fire. Jim Harries is OK with the Layoff and Turf to Dirt angles. Veteran Willie Martinez rides. Win and Exacta Key Box 5/3,9,10.

4th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 4,9/4,9/All

5th - Contenders Only- Trifectas 4,8/4,8/2,10

6th - Contenders Only - Straight Exactas 5/1,2,3

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 5/10 and Trifectas 5,10/5,10/2,4

8th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 9/4,10/All

9th - Contenders Only - Trifectas All/4,6/1,4,6

10th - A prime wager, Top Seed (12). Last year's Tampa Bay Derby winning rider E.M. Coa has three rides on this afternoon's card, but this is the one he's here for. Michael J. Trombetta absolutely dominates in Non-Graded Stakes. These guys mean business. Undefeated Top Seed appears ready to stretchout after surging late for his last win in ALW N1X/OC50. Post Position 12 sees its first win of the season in race 10. Win and Exacta Key Box 12/4,7.

11th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 6,10/6,10/3,8,11

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 12/26/08

2008-12-23T20:39:00.005-05:00

Prime Wager Results 4-11 (36%) -$3.40 (4-2-3) (82% ITM)

On Tuesday, in the 2nd, my prime wager Magic Carpet Glide set a solid pace and weakened in the final furlong, settling for third. In the 5th, my other prime wager Kaleigh Rose bested the rest but was solidly beaten by Meadow Saffron. My soft wager in the 4th, Mucho Dinero was ready as expected, winning by six and paying $5.40. My exacta also clicked in the 4th for $20.60. Among my contenders only selections, there were two winners in the 3rd ($5.40) and the 9th ($7.80). So it goes...

Friday's selections:

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 7/1,2,4

2nd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,4,7

3rd - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 3,4,7 and Trifectas 3,4,7/2,8/3,4,7

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 8/2,4

5th - A prime wager, He Struck It Rich (1). Rich races for a $20K purse for only the second time and has been improving continuously while racing with dem yanks in the Empire State. Returns to Tampa to finally get it done. Takes em wire to wire today, shaking free of all competition. Struggling Velez gets a morale booster here. Win and a saver Exacta Key Box 1/6,8.

6th - A soft wager, Rahoo (1). Put up a 90 in a par 83 on Opening Day. Today's par is 85. Has an excellent record. No good reason why he can't repeat today with LA Gonzalez up again after Fort Knox (2) and Mr. Easy E. (4) are eaten up in a speed duel early. Unbridled Behavior (8) may be cheap but is razor sharp from the looks of things. Smart Partner (6) has won three sprints at the Downs and plunges in class today. Has been very sharp in the morning. Win and Exacta Key Box 1/6,8.

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/2,3,10 and Trifectas 5/8/2,3,10.

8th - Contenders Only 2,6,7

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 3/2,10.

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 7,10 and Trifectas 7,10/7,10/4,5.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 12/23/08

2008-12-20T16:12:00.012-05:00

Prime Wager Results 4-9 (44%) +$0.60 (4-1-2) (78% ITM)

On Saturday, my prime wager, Ballymore Lady won the 8th after a DQ (and a justified one at that) and paid $5.60. I had no soft wagers Saturday. Among my contenders only selections, there were five winners, including a $55.30 exacta in the 7th (if you made the $12 box) and the winner of the 11th, Musical Mischief $47.60. My selections were posted exactly as I bet them, so you already know that I only collected in the 7th and the 8th. So it goes...

Tuesdays selections:

1st - Contenders Only 3,7,10

2nd - A prime wager, Magic Carpet Glide (6). Dueled in a par 83 sprint on opening day that went in 90. Goes Sprint-to-Route this afternoon on nine days rest for Miguel Feliciano who does his best work at the route and has won with the fastback angle before. Takes a huge drop. Expect Validity (1). Ziadie is 6-6 ITM with the Layoff+S+Dropdown last year and a 40% Sprint-to-Route win % at Tampa. Proud Diligence (5). Alexander is 50% ITM with 1st three off the claim. I'll play Win and an saver Exacta Key Box 6/1,5.

3rd - Contenders Only 1,2,6

4th - A soft wager, Mucho Dinero (10). Would be a prime, but its hard to make an L4-8 a prime under any circumstances. Scace's specialty is the L4-8+S+Dropdown with 33% win and 60% ITM for the angle. Mucho Dinero fits. Has been working extaordinarily well from the gate. Win and saver exacta box 10/2,8.

5th - A prime wager, Kaleigh Rose (8). Has been averaging sub-12 fractions in the final furlongs and fits well for Kimmel (21% win, 50% ITM at Tampa) with JA Velez Jr in the irons. Win and a saver Exacta Box 1/8.

6th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 1/6,7

7th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 2/8,10

8th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key 3/1,6,8

9th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 2,4,7

10th - Contenders Only - Exacta Box 4/9 and Trifecta savers 4,9/6,12/4,9

Good luck and good racing and happy holidays to all!

Johnny B.

Tampa Bay Downs Selections - 12/20/08

2008-12-19T16:54:00.010-05:00

Prime Wager Results 3-8 (38%) -$3.00 (3-1-2) (75% ITM)

On Friday, my prime wager in the 4th, Diva Marie, stopped in the stretch after leading throughout. In the 5th, my prime wager, R Vicarious Girl won by 3 1/2 and paid $4.20. In the 7th, my prime wager, Doctor Carina won and paid $4.00 thanks to a great ride by RD Allen Jr. I had no soft selections today. Among my contenders only picks, I had the 1st race exacta for $42.60, a winner in the 2nd, Gonna Blow $51.40 and a winner in the 6th, Strike Impact $18.40. (I failed to cash on any of the latter.) So it goes...

1st - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 2/4,6 (Don't be suckered in by the 90% dropdown, Dual Diagnosis, I think Knipe already has the diagnosis and it aint good!)

2nd - Contenders Only - 3,6,7

3rd - Contenders Only - Trifectas 8/2,6/All

4th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 11/1,4

5th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 6/7,11

6th - Contenders Only - Trifectas 1,10/1,5,7,8,10/5,7,8

7th - Contenders Only - 3,10,11

8th - A prime wager, Ballymore Lady (10). The yielding surface was not agreeable with BL in last, a G3 event at CD one month ago. Final fractions of last three on a firm course were 11.70-11.92-11.86 and against better company than this. Earlier form returns today. Excellent work on 12/10 on the grass. Leading rider Daniel Centeno rides for Ed Kenneally. Win and Straight Exactas 10/3,6,7 and a saver Trifecta 10/2/3,6,7.

9th - Contenders Only - 2,4,5

10th - Contenders Only - Straight Exactas 7/2,4,9

11th - Contenders Only - Exacta Key Box 5/4,8

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.